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How to tell NSE has bottomed out
Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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the deal wrote:To support my Safaricom bellweather theory...last time the NSE bottomed out was Jan 2009...the index was at 2300...Safaricom was at 2.53...the index then gained 1200 points to reach 3500 by October 2010...Safcom was at 5.95...the share seemed to peak at that level although the bourse went on to rally above 4000, the weakness in the momentum was there to see...if u remember there was a mini bear come Nov-Dec this was followed by a sharp rally in January where the NSE picked at 4600...Safaricom was at 4.70...since then Safaricom and NSE has never seen those levels again...so depending where Safaricom's out in the next few month or years thats where the NSE will bottom out...my 2 cents.. @Thedeal is it a case of safcom following the mkt, or the mkt following safcom? Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,219 Location: Nairobi
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sparkly wrote:Aguytrying wrote:Things are whats the word...... THICK. Im wondering...... we all knew this time would come, but we thought it would be around election time, it has come a full year ahead of schedule.
Does this mean that this will last till after election? or the bear may even get worse than we earlier thought as we near election? Or could their be another twist yet again, as it has already? just thinking out loud. @ajamaatrying, IMHO this bear has nothing to do with perceived political risk or fundamentals but is due to the economic weaknesses in the west and the foreign investors pulling money out of risky assets and markets. By elections time this market will be so undervalued, if political risk is factored. It is political risk & economic fundamentals. [Yes, the 'Western' economic woes do hurt us but less than people think] 1) Politics Kenya-style make investors wary. They want SAFE HAVENS not upheavals. Rwanda shows a steady hand & has attracted FDI. Others are Mauritius, Botswana, Switzerland, etc 2) Economic Fundamentals - When I invest in 'other' countries, I want a stable currency OR be compensated for FX losses. (1) has affected (2) where our newspapers & TVs are full of politics not business! 3) Foreign Investors - Most of the investment on the NSE is local not foreign except the huge foreign investors who I call 'permanent' investors like Barclays PLC & Diageo who are unlikely to sell their stakes on the NSE. - Barclays, SCB, Diageo, KLM etc are in Kenya for the long-term & would generally sell their entire stake Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: User Joined: 8/29/2011 Posts: 1,045 Location: Mtaani
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i have a feeling safaricom will hit sub one shilling ...and its a good feeling ..lol
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Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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QW25081985 wrote:i have a feeling safaricom will hit sub one shilling ...and its a good feeling ..lol You might as well get that feeling out of your system. Sub 1 will not materialise GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Rank: User Joined: 8/29/2011 Posts: 1,045 Location: Mtaani
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youcan'tstopusnow wrote:QW25081985 wrote:i have a feeling safaricom will hit sub one shilling ...and its a good feeling ..lol You might as well get that feeling out of your system. Sub 1 will not materialise i know we 1st have to close below 2.55 - all time low - for two consecutive days to open up sub 1 bob. But the huge vol we saw last week make sub 1 bob ever so close. Other than that the index is targeting 3k mark and saf will take it there .
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Rank: Member Joined: 8/17/2011 Posts: 207 Location: humu humu
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Quite interesting to note that if you stretch the NSE chart back 10yrs (back to 2001) the lowest low is in the 1000s level. If you use this as the lowest reference for a trendline and the March 2009 low of 2360, the next low of the trendline is around 3020 - 3080. As long as 3000 is not broken down, the NSE is still in a bull trend as per the 10yr chart! Should 3000 be broken down emphatically, then a test of 2360 will be on the cards and will mean that the 10yr bull trend has been violated. An outcome that could lead the market into a long period (2 - 3 yrs) of loss consolidation - sideways market trend until the bull returns.
In 2003 - 2004 (2600 - 2800) was a support zone for the bull up to the 2007 top - 6161.
So will the 3000 level get violated?
Why I focus on the downside is if you use the same trendline to form a triangle when you use the tops from 6161, 4667 (2010) and 4579 (2011) the break of 3000 will be very bearish. On the flip side, a test and defence of 3000 will mean that the rebounds biggest barrier will be 3900 - 4100 level on the falling tops trendline. If this is cleared with vigour, then the bull will look to test 4400-4600 before aiming for 5000. At 5000, a lot of resistance will be encountered as it was a consolidation (support) level in late 2007 and early 2008. A clear break of this level will open up the challenge of 6000. Time will tell when...
Now for some bizarre analogy...
In 2010 - the top 4667 was tested in 05/08/2010 and 25/10/2010.
In 2007 - the market peak at 6161 which was on 11/01/2007.
In 2011 - the market peaked at 4579 which was on 11/01/2011.
Something weird about 11th January...
So if the current market was to follow the trend of 2007 which saw the bear hit a low of 2360 in March 5th 2009 i.e. 26 months, that means the current bear trend should also target March 2013. Indeed a long bear it will be and won't be helped by an upcoming election with a noisy european default scenario and a recessing US economy with a slowing down Ching economy... A powder keg cocktail scenario 
Update - NSE chart - http://www.wazua.co.ke/investor/nseindex.aspx
Did know of a currency chart on wazua 
The 5yr swiss chart is very bullish as well as aussie, yen, dollar etc...
http://www.wazua.co.ke/investor/currencies.aspx
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: User Joined: 8/29/2011 Posts: 1,045 Location: Mtaani
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hisah wrote:Quite interesting to note that if you stretch the NSE chart back 10yrs (back to 2001) the lowest low is in the 1000s level. If you use this as the lowest reference for a trendline and the March 2009 low of 2360, the next low of the trendline is around 3020 - 3080. As long as 3000 is not broken down, the NSE is still in a bull trend as per the 10yr chart! Should 3000 be broken down emphatically, then a test of 2360 will be on the cards and will mean that the 10yr bull trend has been violated. An outcome that could lead the market into a long period (2 - 3 yrs) of loss consolidation - sideways market trend until the bull returns.
In 2003 - 2004 (2600 - 2800) was a support zone for the bull up to the 2007 top - 6161.
So will the 3000 level get violated?
Why I focus on the downside is if you use the same trendline to form a triangle when you use the tops from 6161, 4667 (2010) and 4579 (2011) the break of 3000 will be very bearish. On the flip side, a test and defence of 3000 will mean that the rebounds biggest barrier will be 3900 - 4100 level on the falling tops trendline. If this is cleared with vigour, then the bull will look to test 4400-4600 before aiming for 5000. At 5000, a lot of resistance will be encountered as it was a consolidation (support) level in late 2007 and early 2008. A clear break of this level will open up the challenge of 6000. Time will tell when...
Now for some bizarre analogy...
In 2010 - the top 4667 was tested in 05/08/2010 and 25/10/2010.
In 2007 - the market peak at 6161 which was on 11/01/2007.
In 2011 - the market peaked at 4579 which was on 11/01/2011.
Something weird about 11th January...
So if the current market was to follow the trend of 2007 which saw the bear hit a low of 2360 in March 5th 2009 i.e. 26 months, that means the current bear trend should also target March 2013. Indeed a long bear it will be and won't be helped by an upcoming election with a noisy european default scenario and a recessing US economy with a slowing down Ching economy... A powder keg cocktail scenario
Update - NSE chart - http://www.wazua.co.ke/investor/nseindex.aspx
Did know of a currency chart on wazua
The 5yr swiss chart is very bullish as well as aussie, yen, dollar etc...
http://www.wazua.co.ke/investor/currencies.aspx
nice analysis . but i know very many wazuas are floating . lol . on other news i wounder where my access kenya will be when we break that 5k support come resistance , lol. i can only smell money .....
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Rank: Member Joined: 2/20/2007 Posts: 359
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hisah wrote:Quite interesting to note that if you stretch the NSE chart back 10yrs (back to 2001) the lowest low is in the 1000s level. If you use this as the lowest reference for a trendline and the March 2009 low of 2360, the next low of the trendline is around 3020 - 3080. As long as 3000 is not broken down, the NSE is still in a bull trend as per the 10yr chart! Should 3000 be broken down emphatically, then a test of 2360 will be on the cards and will mean that the 10yr bull trend has been violated. An outcome that could lead the market into a long period (2 - 3 yrs) of loss consolidation - sideways market trend until the bull returns.
In 2003 - 2004 (2600 - 2800) was a support zone for the bull up to the 2007 top - 6161.
So will the 3000 level get violated?
Why I focus on the downside is if you use the same trendline to form a triangle when you use the tops from 6161, 4667 (2010) and 4579 (2011) the break of 3000 will be very bearish. On the flip side, a test and defence of 3000 will mean that the rebounds biggest barrier will be 3900 - 4100 level on the falling tops trendline. If this is cleared with vigour, then the bull will look to test 4400-4600 before aiming for 5000. At 5000, a lot of resistance will be encountered as it was a consolidation (support) level in late 2007 and early 2008. A clear break of this level will open up the challenge of 6000. Time will tell when...
Now for some bizarre analogy...
In 2010 - the top 4667 was tested in 05/08/2010 and 25/10/2010.
In 2007 - the market peak at 6161 which was on 11/01/2007.
In 2011 - the market peaked at 4579 which was on 11/01/2011.
Something weird about 11th January...
So if the current market was to follow the trend of 2007 which saw the bear hit a low of 2360 in March 5th 2009 i.e. 26 months, that means the current bear trend should also target March 2013. Indeed a long bear it will be and won't be helped by an upcoming election with a noisy european default scenario and a recessing US economy with a slowing down Ching economy... A powder keg cocktail scenario
Update - NSE chart - http://www.wazua.co.ke/investor/nseindex.aspx
Did know of a currency chart on wazua
The 5yr swiss chart is very bullish as well as aussie, yen, dollar etc...
http://www.wazua.co.ke/investor/currencies.aspx
Sounds like Greek to me, or expert econometrics or whatever it is you call it. I for one am clueless but for the conclusions which are credible. I suppose that you have taken into account the change in how the NSE index is determined after Safcom was listed n therefore ur projections are consistent or at least determined that it does not matter one way or the other.
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Rank: User Joined: 8/29/2011 Posts: 1,045 Location: Mtaani
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slykat wrote:hisah wrote:Quite interesting to note that if you stretch the NSE chart back 10yrs (back to 2001) the lowest low is in the 1000s level. If you use this as the lowest reference for a trendline and the March 2009 low of 2360, the next low of the trendline is around 3020 - 3080. As long as 3000 is not broken down, the NSE is still in a bull trend as per the 10yr chart! Should 3000 be broken down emphatically, then a test of 2360 will be on the cards and will mean that the 10yr bull trend has been violated. An outcome that could lead the market into a long period (2 - 3 yrs) of loss consolidation - sideways market trend until the bull returns.
In 2003 - 2004 (2600 - 2800) was a support zone for the bull up to the 2007 top - 6161.
So will the 3000 level get violated?
Why I focus on the downside is if you use the same trendline to form a triangle when you use the tops from 6161, 4667 (2010) and 4579 (2011) the break of 3000 will be very bearish. On the flip side, a test and defence of 3000 will mean that the rebounds biggest barrier will be 3900 - 4100 level on the falling tops trendline. If this is cleared with vigour, then the bull will look to test 4400-4600 before aiming for 5000. At 5000, a lot of resistance will be encountered as it was a consolidation (support) level in late 2007 and early 2008. A clear break of this level will open up the challenge of 6000. Time will tell when...
Now for some bizarre analogy...
In 2010 - the top 4667 was tested in 05/08/2010 and 25/10/2010.
In 2007 - the market peak at 6161 which was on 11/01/2007.
In 2011 - the market peaked at 4579 which was on 11/01/2011.
Something weird about 11th January...
So if the current market was to follow the trend of 2007 which saw the bear hit a low of 2360 in March 5th 2009 i.e. 26 months, that means the current bear trend should also target March 2013. Indeed a long bear it will be and won't be helped by an upcoming election with a noisy european default scenario and a recessing US economy with a slowing down Ching economy... A powder keg cocktail scenario
Update - NSE chart - http://www.wazua.co.ke/investor/nseindex.aspx
Did know of a currency chart on wazua
The 5yr swiss chart is very bullish as well as aussie, yen, dollar etc...
http://www.wazua.co.ke/investor/currencies.aspx
Sounds like Greek to me, or expert econometrics or whatever it is you call it. I for one am clueless but for the conclusions which are credible. I suppose that you have taken into account the change in how the NSE index is determined after Safcom was listed n therefore ur projections are consistent or at least determined that it does not matter one way or the other. @ skylat . lol you are most definitely clue less...
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Rank: User Joined: 8/29/2011 Posts: 1,045 Location: Mtaani
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you know we are near a bottom when guys start writing in green lol.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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@Skylat - I'm looking at the 10yr index pattern in technical terms. Scom's inclusion & deletion of others doesn't matter. Read about technical analysis and the greek becomes crystal clear $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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QW25081985 wrote:you know we are near a bottom when guys start writing in green lol. Green for peace & calm even as the haircuts fry portfolios... $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: User Joined: 8/29/2011 Posts: 1,045 Location: Mtaani
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With such kind of news i dnt think the bottom is near , very sad http://m.standardmedia.c...dlines.php?id=2000042125
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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[quote=QW25081985]With such kind of news i dnt think the bottom is near , very sad http://m.standardmedia.c...lines.php?id=2000042125[/quote] Very bearish news. Wage cuts, job cuts, econ slowdown etc point to a coming recession esp if inflation & the volatile exchange rate are not contained. As usual gubberment will be the last to notice. CBK will be forced to raise the CBR by the market then the downward GDP growth revisions will begin in earnest...$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Member Joined: 2/20/2007 Posts: 359
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hisah wrote:@Skylat - I'm looking at the 10yr index pattern in technical terms. Scom's inclusion & deletion of others doesn't matter. Read about technical analysis and the greek becomes crystal clear Thanks. The ta I know is basic but enough for me. Am so very long-term so I rely on climate patterns, political warming/cooling and economic trends. I don't dwell on every turn and twist. I fence off, lay my traps and wait and wait. But one day I will have to study that and go very active. It must be challenging.
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 8/26/2011 Posts: 16
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the worst is still yet to come ...the NSE is bearish more because of the political climate than fundamentals..i will buy shares 1 month before elections when prices are really really depressed :) Quote:Audaces Fortuna Iuvat
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Rank: User Joined: 8/29/2011 Posts: 1,045 Location: Mtaani
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futurestrader wrote:the worst is still yet to come ...the NSE is bearish more because of the political climate than fundamentals..i will buy shares 1 month before elections when prices are really really depressed :) how come you are stilling my strategy, lol . . And the index at 3k will safaricom reallz be trading at 2 bob ? Putin in mind it has such a heavy influence on the index. It doesnt take rocket science to figure out that .
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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futurestrader wrote:the worst is still yet to come ...the NSE is bearish more because of the political climate than fundamentals..i will buy shares 1 month before elections when prices are really really depressed :) Awesome. That'll build up a lot of demand for the earlier birds
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Rank: Member Joined: 8/29/2008 Posts: 571
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The BEARS are quite happy at the moment.If this trend continues its great and awesome.We(the bears) will accumulate a good chunk before the bulls arrive.And when(bulls) do finally arrive;we will slaughter them.Anybody for a T-bone steak!!!!Ha,ha,ha......
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