Wazua
»
Investor
»
Stocks
»
SCOM at Kshs. 4
Rank: Elder Joined: 2/10/2007 Posts: 1,587
|
Much Know wrote:@pkoli, there is no need to form a cartel (by the way bharti and others were forced to meet and raise 'permanent' costs just friday this week in india), apart from the share price and profits sliding by half, safcom has everything to gain by slushing cost further. Let him give a profit warning, reassure shareholders and slush tarrifs to 1.50/- on a promotional offer and watch the other guy bleed to death. If he lets it continue to survive through a deal, it could turn round on us in future. I say strike when the iron is hot. I have seen the september 15 figures and zain gained dot and are now in a major loss position, meanwhile bharti has lost 15% market share in Africa to Vodafone. With their 10bill usd loan for zain africa and their fast eroding profits in india, zain kenya is doing its swan dance. Thanks for the analysis, safcom market leardership is here to stay for the next 10 years.
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 12/6/2008 Posts: 3,558
|
Sure next ten years, wish i had cash though, can't sell can't buy, but the price may remain depressed and continue to fall unless Barclays nominees come back forcefully or something drastic happens, maybe by November results i may have enough cash and the price maybe much lower. Fear and greed they say, an inverse interplay between these two is ignorance and sound information. Meru Holiness
|
|
|
Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
|
The main point of investing at the NSE is to make money. Is Safaricom a sure moneymaker at the moment? GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
|
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:The main point of investing at the NSE is to make money. Is Safaricom a sure moneymaker at the moment? @youcan't its not a moneymaker but i sure know the real ones available on our market:... Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 12/6/2008 Posts: 3,558
|
 Emarging Markets, what shares grow fastest in such places as they advance? Scom is another story, it may well collapse, but the telco and financial service sector will provide the best returns. Same with banks, no guarantee equity will provide amazing returns but? Of course if you are one of those people always jumping out of falling stocks and bought all rising stock at a discount(sometime back jumped in at a very low price), then you see things differently. Meru Holiness
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
|
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:the deal wrote:@Much Know nice strategy...MJ should issue a profit warning & slash calling rates to all networks to 1.50 bob...hahahahahaha i'm sure a few executives @ Zain will go bald... If he does such a thing, the share will be trading at 1 bob. You will be buying your nephews and nieces sweets and the little kids will be telling you eagerly, ''Unko, si ungetununulia tu shares za Safaricom'' lollest Life is short. Live passionately.
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 12/6/2008 Posts: 3,558
|
@sparkly,youcant, deal, safcom is 50cents away from 1.50/-, it is not a big deal, it just sounds major but it is not, for the psychology and resulting increased ARPU, i think it is better than 2/-. OK maybe 1.90/- Meru Holiness
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
|
@much know we shall scoop some at mashiringi ya masaa kubamba (3 bob) lol Life is short. Live passionately.
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 6/27/2008 Posts: 4,114
|
When revenue comes crushing down, the only way to keep earnings stable is to cut costs.... So, what is SCOM's largest cost element? Let's look at the numbers again....this time, concentrate on the costs... Nothing is real unless it can be named; nothing has value unless it can be sold; money is worthless unless you spend it.
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 9/12/2006 Posts: 1,554
|
mukiha wrote:When revenue comes crushing down, the only way to keep earnings stable is to cut costs....
So, what is SCOM's largest cost element?
Let's look at the numbers again....this time, concentrate on the costs... Costs(not in any order) 1. consultants 2. Employees 3. adverts 4. sites roll-out 5. Site fuel/travel/allowances/commissions 6. training 7. number plan(0722, 0721, 0724 etc) 8. Frequencies 9. third party vendors & software licenses among others
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 2/7/2007 Posts: 11,935 Location: Nairobi
|
@Jamani, Nice list there.We can also come up with expected revenue drop and estimates of individual costs so that we can determine what goes out first.....but sadly,the employees here will be pawns especially if the company posts more than 50% drop in generated revenues.Likely?...Yes.Just this morning i called a friend who is a dealer and he actually confessed that business is really bad (We are going to double our talking time stuff was pure air).His average daily sales have dropped from 30k to 5k...huh! Nothing great was ever achieved without enthusiasm.
|
|
|
Rank: Member Joined: 3/17/2008 Posts: 567 Location: Nairobi
|
The sooner safcom agrees they are in a life thretening position the sooner they can do something about it.
In last year’s Financial Statement notes there was this statement on going concern
(iii) Critical judgment on going concern - (page 52 of their annual report)
The Group’s current liabilities exceed its current assets by Shs 11,249,325,000 (2009: Shs 18,258,138,000) at the balance sheet date. This position is expected to remain a net liability in the near future. However, the Group continues to grow its revenue and to generate sufficient cash to meet its obligations as they arise and in line with the long term plans of the business. Management reviews the cash forecast monthly and determines its cash requirements.
The principle assumption is the increase of revenues. Now how possible is this.
Companies dont close cause they are not making profits, they close cause they run out of cash. Their current liabilities catch up with them.
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,192 Location: nairobi
|
Safcom seems to be refusing the invitation by eveready for a cup of tea "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 11/7/2007 Posts: 2,182
|
Did saf see this coming really? Sigh! LOVE WHAT YOU DO, DO WHAT YOU LOVE.
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 11/27/2007 Posts: 3,604
|
@X13united. Stop It. That was a misleading question. during the pev safcom ws not yet listed until six months later. African parents don't know how to say sorry.. the closest you will get to a sorry is a 'have you eaten'
|
|
|
Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/9/2009 Posts: 2,003
|
Njung'e wrote:@Jamani,
... His average daily sales have dropped from 30k to 5k...huh! Translating to 83% drop!!!!!!!!Those are scary figures.. But this SCOM downfall is coming closer home when the jobs of family and friends are on the line and only last year they received mega bonuses!!! I agree with Pablo Pablo wrote:The sooner safcom agrees they are in a life thretening position the sooner they can do something about it....
|
|
|
Rank: Veteran Joined: 7/24/2008 Posts: 781
|
where are the number crunchers kina proverb,VVS and the like...to give us the financial ratios pap! we could be having our own version of titanic here... The utimate goal of investing is to buy low sell high;if we re-write this core equation in psychology terms it becomes buy fear sell greed.
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/20/2007 Posts: 4,432
|
History has shown that the last people to believe a company is in trouble are employees. Even Enron employees were buying the company shares 30 minutes before the assessors entered their building and some 3 months after the whole world had been dumping the stocks. Pablo is right. However, I think the management knows that there will be some serious adjustments ahead. But would you tell the employees that some will go home? Their only hope is if Bharti Airtel crashes in India. It can happen. But don't hold your breath. My friend is considering selling his safcom business. Sales have dropped over 60% so go figure. Jose: If I make it through this thug life, I'll see you one day. The Lord is the only way to stop the hurt.
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 12/9/2009 Posts: 6,592 Location: Nairobi
|
I'm not a safaricom fan but I think they can survive this. I'm sure they have great strategists here and at vodafone. There's still a lot of untapped market and scom remains top of mind in the rural areas mainly because of Mpesa. What is happening now was expected and inevitable and I expect a company of safaricom's stature to have anticipated and prepared early for this.
BBI will solve it :)
|
|
|
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,259 Location: Nairobi
|
sheep wrote:where are the number crunchers kina proverb,VVS and the like...to give us the financial ratios pap!
we could be having our own version of titanic here... Pole... Sina hisa za Safaricom... So I am not really into doing the numbers! All I can say is that the Voice ARPU will drop by a huge margin in 2H thus severely impacting the PAT. Data has grown phenomenally as as M-Pesa but I doubt they are enough to cover 'losses' in Voice profits. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
|
|
|
Wazua
»
Investor
»
Stocks
»
SCOM at Kshs. 4
Forum Jump
You cannot post new topics in this forum.
You cannot reply to topics in this forum.
You cannot delete your posts in this forum.
You cannot edit your posts in this forum.
You cannot create polls in this forum.
You cannot vote in polls in this forum.
|