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KCB rights issue
Rank: Veteran Joined: 1/7/2010 Posts: 1,279 Location: nbi
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KCB intends to raise Ksh21bn over the next few years. Ksh15bn via issue of 1.1bn shares through the rights issue. KSh6bn presumambly from the bond. Based on the above, I'd say an entry price of Ksh12 is appropriate given that you won't get a return on the Ksh15bn for 3 years at least The Governor of Nyeri - 2017
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/10/2007 Posts: 1,587
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@Waithaka
That is a massive share dilution especially given the fact that KCB has a very large free float of shares. I will have to do my math and exit. will wait for it to behave the safcom way during listing else I am sure the stock will trade in the current price of equity. No fundamental analysis, just looking at similar banks with similar number of shares and relative profitability being slightly similar. I guess it will trade at around 18 bob ex-dividend.
Happy hunting pals
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/10/2010 Posts: 1,001 Location: River Road
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19.75 cum-div and still going south. If it settles around 18 bob ex-dividend the rights price will be 10 bob
I wonder what the Plan B is if the rights issue flops.
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Rank: Member Joined: 4/14/2010 Posts: 806 Location: Nairobi
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When is the rights prospectus being released?
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/9/2009 Posts: 6,592 Location: Nairobi
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I'll wait for it at 11-12bob. As for CFC... damn!
BBI will solve it :)
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/10/2007 Posts: 1,587
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Not sure empty hand. May be KCB management will try to buy time and hope that the share will make some recovery..or try to make some strategic announcement..like Sudan branches performing well bla bla bla..
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/10/2007 Posts: 1,587
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@2012.
At a price of 10-12 for KCB ex rights, I bet you will have to wait a little longer. It is not a bank on the brink of collapsing. I can see today, demand is coming in. we are seing a demand of 800,000 against supply of almost 2m. This is contrast to yesterday's demand of about 150,000 against a supply of almost 2m. I doubt the price will ebb below 18!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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2012 wrote:I'll wait for it at 11-12bob. @2012 i dont think this stock can go down that far otherwise it would be a serious market misjudgement... right now this stock is being heavily sold mostly by fatigued retail investors who have no money or interest to take up their rights and are not ready to face dilution of their stock... if it can go down to 18.5 i see tremendous medium term value even from a dividend point of view so i will get in at that level and average down my buy price with the rights issue... Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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definitely this counter is oversold...get in if u have money for the rights and if prepared to wait for another 2 years...lakini cfc even @ 54 is cheap...then theres NIC...EQUITY...I'm spoiled for choices...LOL.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/10/2007 Posts: 1,587
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For the doubting Thomases, today KCB demand and supply have almost evened out. Like I predicted yesterday the price is unlikely to go lower than 19. May be 21 would be a better price and after issuing of bonus it will drop to may be 18 and thereafter move to the 20s.
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Rank: Member Joined: 2/20/2007 Posts: 359
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Seems like some institution is mopping KCB up with a view to taking up its issue rights.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 1/7/2010 Posts: 1,279 Location: nbi
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Sometimes, peeps need to be aware that even the brokers under their IB hats trade in this market. The Governor of Nyeri - 2017
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/10/2010 Posts: 1,001 Location: River Road
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CMA gave approval for the rights issue on the 3rd June 2010.
Books close on the 14th June 2010.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,568 Location: nairobi
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reported that the books close this friday! analysts predict a price of KES 13.00 wit a 2:5 ratio.. time to let money talk and see if this will be a success. based on q1 results, im buying!!!
COOP 70,000 ABP 15.20; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/20/2007 Posts: 2,037 Location: Lagos, Nigeria
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Mzee Obioro, From the info I got, Q1 result of KCB was dismal compared to EB etc. I think it is a buy for a very long term (3 years up) otherwise short term investors should sale off and buy back post rights if the counter is still attractive to them. See below :- April 29 (Reuters) - Kenya Commercial Bank's (KCB.NR) pretax profit rose to 1.9 billion shillings ($24.5 million) in the first quarter of 2010 from 1.73 billion in the same period the previous year, the bank said on Thursday. The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
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Rank: Member Joined: 6/5/2008 Posts: 174
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Young , what would you advise a person who entered at Ksh 29 in July 2008? sell at a loss then re-acquire them post bonus? For bookkeeping and bank loan interest recalculation try us:niando.becia@gmail.com
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Rank: Elder Joined: 4/22/2009 Posts: 2,863
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obiero wrote:reported that the books close this friday! analysts predict a price of KES 13.00 wit a 2:5 ratio.. time to let money talk and see if this will be a success. based on q1 results, im buying!!! If KCB plans to raise 15B from sale of 887M shares, then simple maths points at a price of 17Bob per share not 13Bob. IF YOU EXPECT ME TO POST ANYTHING POSITIVE ABOUT ASENO, YOU MAY AS WELL SIT ON A PIN
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,568 Location: nairobi
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it appears my sources wr seemingly wrong
COOP 70,000 ABP 15.20; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/10/2010 Posts: 1,001 Location: River Road
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If KCB plans to raise 15B from sale of 887M shares, then simple maths points at a price of 17Bob per share not 13Bob.[/quote] @Mwenza, KCB planned to issue 1.1B shares to raise 15B, CMA however only approved issue of 887M shares, obviously protecting the investors from the dilution. This is a good one CMA  I wonder how these business journalists are not getting this point. Let's wait for Tuesday for the price announcement but I think 13.6 looks feasible.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 4/22/2009 Posts: 2,863
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If 13.60Bob is feasible, then they should forget about raising 15B from the rights issue. IF YOU EXPECT ME TO POST ANYTHING POSITIVE ABOUT ASENO, YOU MAY AS WELL SIT ON A PIN
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