Wazua
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NSE SHARES PERFORMANCE: THREE YEAR FORECAST WITH 2012 IN MIND
Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/10/2010 Posts: 1,001 Location: River Road
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Guru, I agree growth stocks tend to have a high P/e. I would go for growth stocks with good management maybe P/E of 12-16 for the kenyan market in this environment. I would go for P/E of 20 if the company had a solid regional strategy. My take on safaricom, it looks attractive if you are a foreign investor looking for a safe bet in a frontier market. Its highly liquid for quick exit. Waiting to see the KCB results, looks like S&L will do better than HFCK in financing new housing projects. Medium term stock.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/9/2009 Posts: 6,592 Location: Nairobi
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mkonomtupu wrote:looks like S&L will do better than HFCK in financing new housing projects. Medium term stock.
Which projects have been done by S&L? BBI will solve it :)
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,218 Location: Nairobi
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IMHO, even after accounting for growth... I will stay out of safaricom until it touches 5/- (which it may not) Even if I buy safaricom at 5.50 what is my best hope? I can get 10% in T-Bonds in 1 year. So unless safaricom hits 6.15 (including dividend income & excludes commission costs)... why bother? Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 1/10/2010 Posts: 73 Location: kenya
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This soko of ours ni ya aina yake pekee.
I've decided, kama hakuna double digit profit growth I'm not buying hata kama the company is still making profits.
Look at financials, growth siku hizi ni 2%, 4%.... (isipokuwa stachart - lakini angalia bei na liquidity yake. Huwezi kutegemea)
When I operate kienyeji, I'm happy with the results. Nikifikiria sana, napoteza.
Leo nimesukuma Kengen inje mpaka 2012(nanunua na yeye anakopa tu.)x
If there is economic growth then I'm going for profit growth.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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Wazua is so queit today...this down trend is starting to press my panic buttons...is this just a market correction or are we on a bear run? Chaliwong wasup wit the swahili u r locking us out of the chat...@ vvs safcom just need to consolidated their shares moving forward the future is great while its competitors r focused on nairobi safcom is targeting the rural areas i.e nanyuki the untaped market is big...
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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Cicero wrote:@guru267thank you for the advice & the other honourable wazurians. Infact, i will get rid of sasini & kengen n report back say in a wks time. The i'll get more into KQ, safaricon & any other u may advice. ... @cicero sell KENGEN at a loss, and buy overpriced KQ and SAFCOM? You are investing with your heart, not your mind! KENGEN is investing in wind and geothermal, energy is under invested in kenya, KENGEN is a monopoly utility, trading at near all time lows. In the next 5-10 years shareholders will be laughing all... 5 years is not long. Meanwhile as sweet as saf looks, who knows it might be slaughtered by Yu in 2 years. Thats the nature of technology. Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,218 Location: Nairobi
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@sparkly - KenGen is a long-term play & they need to raise cash for their investments... IMHO, they are over-priced vs KQ considering 1-3 year prospects... After 3 years when the various generation projects start producing cash, then the story may change... Wind will take 1-3 years to be up & running... Geothermal 3-5 years... Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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VituVingiSana wrote:IMHO, even after accounting for growth... I will stay out of safaricom until it touches 5/- (which it may not)
Even if I buy safaricom at 5.50 what is my best hope? I can get 10% in T-Bonds in 1 year. So unless safaricom hits 6.15 (including dividend income & excludes commission costs)... why bother? @VVS my friend i wanna place a bet with you because your underestimating this counter... i wouldnt want you to lose out with this.... safcom WILL be at 7bob+ at least by the end of march... nothing less Mark 12:29 Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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the deal wrote:Wazua is so queit today...this down trend is starting to press my panic buttons...is this just a market correction or are we on a bear run? Chaliwong wasup wit the swahili u r locking us out of the chat...@ vvs safcom just need to consolidated their shares moving forward the future is great while its competitors r focused on nairobi safcom is targeting the rural areas i.e nanyuki the untaped market is big... there is no bear run at the moment... this current oscillation is just the bears and bulls fighting each other... this usually happens just before results are announced.. i think the market needs a few numbers out before it finds direction... i dint view this recent "bull run" as one but more as a revaluation of beaten up stock prices... Mark 12:29 Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/10/2010 Posts: 1,001 Location: River Road
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2012, I was looking at KCB's S&L and HFCK from their p/e and the regional strategy. Previously S&L had a lending capacity of Kshs.250million. Following its amalgamation into KCB it can leverage on KCB's balance of 185billion to lend to a single borrower at 25% of core capital. Look at the deal with the South sudan government to finance 1750 housing units for civil servants. The entire deal is about 35.3 billion(Us $452m) with kshs 3.1 billion being financed this year.So in terms on new projects it has solid edge against HF which has a high p/e and restricted to the kenyan market. As the MD said in the annual report "KCB Sudan has confounded all by standing out as prime investment for the Group. After only two-and-half years in operation and 3 branches, the business boasts an impressive Kshs 10 billion balance sheet and profit before tax of Kshs. 530 million." Can HF beat that.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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@mkono... thanx for the info about s&l.. so do you envisage good full year results for KCB??? i'm asking because of their dismall 1% HY09 profit growth.. Mark 12:29 Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/9/2009 Posts: 6,592 Location: Nairobi
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mkonomtupu wrote:2012, I was looking at KCB's S&L and HFCK from their p/e and the regional strategy. Previously S&L had a lending capacity of Kshs.250million. Following its amalgamation into KCB it can leverage on KCB's balance of 185billion to lend to a single borrower at 25% of core capital.
@mkono, I was asking about a head to head record/comparison between HF and S&L not KCB S&L vs HF (or is it Equity HF). If you ask me, I'd advice you to get some HF in your portfolio as I believe their new products are very attractive and the pension guaranteed mortgage with British American is without a doubt the way to go. BBI will solve it :)
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/10/2010 Posts: 1,001 Location: River Road
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Guru, KCB looks a medium term growth stock, obviously the costs of setting up branches will weigh on the results. But it's a stocks that i would keep on the radar. Notice the entry of the single foreign investor on Tuesday with 10m shares and the fund managers. 2012, the last analysis before amalgamation had this verdict "KCB's mortgage subsidiary (S&L) is expected to continue to outperform Housing finance in the real estate sector" Waiting for the results to see the head to head. But it's a stock to watch.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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looks like KPLC is finally coming out of its shell.. its been up this week i hope can get my sell order at 160 to go thru somtime next week Mark 12:29 Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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Ja kplc after the conversion is another one to watch...its a utility,its a monopoly but its profits largely depend on high power tariffs.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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@the deal i totally agree with you on KPLC but lets not forget that it is still a very inefficient firm so it has much room for cost cutting to increase profits... and the industrial demand for power which was damaged last year is likely to pick up next year which will increase revenue a great deal.. by 2012 this baby will be all grown up.. Mark 12:29 Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,218 Location: Nairobi
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guru267 wrote: @VVS my friend i wanna place a bet with you because your underestimating this counter... i wouldnt want you to lose out with this.... safcom WILL be at 7bob+ at least by the end of march... nothing less
Another lunch? Agreed! You buy me lunch... if safcom is not at 7/-... Well, if it hits 7/- u shud be very happy... so also buy me lunch? Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,218 Location: Nairobi
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@guru - U seem so confident on KPLC yet you want to sell out at 160/-? @thedeal - I am sure you have seen my picks & KPLC is on my list. I got in at 160/- (including 6/- dividend) so I am underwater but I am confident we are looking at 200/- (25%) in 12-18 months. Please note I will also include any cash I get from selling my Rights. I agree the restructuring is a millstone around KPLC but folks are under-estimating the value as Kenya develops. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,218 Location: Nairobi
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guru267 wrote:looks like KPLC is finally coming out of its shell.. its been up this week i hope can get my sell order at 160 to go thru somtime next week If I had the means to do so, I would 'buy' your KPLC as an option. Pity I cant enter into options or a forward contract with you! I would pay you 10/- today for the option to 'hold' the shares till 30 October 2011 & then hand them over to me on that date for 160/- each. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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@VVS trust me i'm no where near getting out of KPLC not even if i was high on crack cocaine... its just theres alot of speculation on this restructuring and i believe thee might be oppurtunity to re enter... i've got 5500 shares in this counter which i got at 125bob and i'm only selling 600 of them... why will you be selling your rights??? i hope they would split them 20:1 Mark 12:29 Deuteronomy 4:16
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NSE SHARES PERFORMANCE: THREE YEAR FORECAST WITH 2012 IN MIND
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