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Taking positions for 2010
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VituVingiSana
#41 Posted : Friday, January 08, 2010 10:33:40 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,134
Location: Nairobi
This week will close up for me...

KQ touches 40 (My target is 42-45 by 30 June 2010)
KPLC touches 149 (My target is 200/- by 31 Dec 2011)

*** Note that the price target includes any premiums/benefits from the Rights Issue in 2010
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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VituVingiSana
#42 Posted : Monday, January 11, 2010 7:27:34 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,134
Location: Nairobi
Why is this under offshore??? And not (Kenya)Stocks?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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VituVingiSana
#43 Posted : Monday, January 11, 2010 10:49:28 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
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Location: Nairobi
KPLC touches 150/-
KQ touches 43/-
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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cnn
#44 Posted : Monday, January 11, 2010 10:59:49 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 6/17/2009
Posts: 1,619
mumias leads the charge,anyone watching on the sides will lose big on the upward traction on several counters.
@VVS,your KQ target was 42,can we arrange for a private transfer?,supply is scarce.!
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VituVingiSana
#45 Posted : Monday, January 11, 2010 11:37:32 AM
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Location: Nairobi
Mumias & KQ up 9.5%

@cnn - LOL... 42-45 was my target... It will drop to 42/- (when you can/should) pick up more...

I am waiting for 30 Jan when they release the 3Q pax numbers.

Ahhh... and there is KPLC... folks think I am crazy but my target of 200/- by Dec 2011 remains... I do include gains from any potential 'premium' on the Rights as well as a decent dividend (est 8-10...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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the deal
#46 Posted : Monday, January 11, 2010 1:37:22 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
@ cnn n vvs...i envy all u kq,msc n kplc shareholders...lol...anyways i'm stickin to my stock even if it moves slower than a tortoise...slowly but surely up we go...lol.
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cnn
#47 Posted : Monday, January 11, 2010 2:58:30 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 6/17/2009
Posts: 1,619
@the deal
THE catch is to be a little diversified so when HFCK was climbing i cheered,now it is kq and mumias making me smile.When sasini,keny re,cmc,equity and kcb do their thing i will be there.Last year was all about accumulating cheap stocks as of how deep that was up to individual preference and circumstances,time to reap is near.
@vvs,the KPLC counter will only be attractive when we know how much water they will add to the milk.
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VituVingiSana
#48 Posted : Monday, January 11, 2010 8:54:24 PM
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Posts: 18,134
Location: Nairobi
@cnn - LOLest

You reminded me of the mama maziwa... She would never have a problem delivering 'extra' milk until my mother caught her 'extending' the milk with maji! You could hear the shouting all over the neighbourhood!

At least those days the maji was clean (from City Council).

Yes, I agree... but READ the latest Annual Report... there is a very, very interesting tidbit there...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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VituVingiSana
#49 Posted : Monday, January 11, 2010 8:59:23 PM
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Location: Nairobi
@thedeal... Let me finish buying one of my current picks then I will tell you which one...

It is rarely traded but sells at a huge discount to any metric you can slap on it...

I am a Warren Buffett fan... & this honey could excite Graham as well...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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the deal
#50 Posted : Monday, January 11, 2010 9:40:54 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
@vvs u refering to unga or cfc...one of those two...@ cnn i think i'm diversified enough its just a matter of consolidatxn my portifolio into the nse...i'm in the process of offloadin my trustco n bidvest nam shares on the namibia stock xchange...n build my portifolio here...since i will b in Kenya 4 nxt 4 yrs...
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VituVingiSana
#51 Posted : Monday, January 11, 2010 9:56:31 PM
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Location: Nairobi
@thedeal - Pole... my friend... I shall beg off your question for now...

TrustCo - I have looked at this on & off for 2 years... why are you selling?

Oh, and if you are selling NamBrew... let me know...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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VituVingiSana
#52 Posted : Wednesday, January 13, 2010 9:35:42 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,134
Location: Nairobi
An update on my choices:

KQ
41/- (Up from 35.75)
Target 45/- by 1 June 2010

KPLC
149/- (No change)
Target 200/- by 31 Dec 2011 (Longer term and includes profits from Rights as well as dividends)

Williamson
125/- (lots of trades for a generally illiquid stock)
On 4 Jan it was stuck with no trades for a while.
Target 200/- (July 2010 after results are released)
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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the deal
#53 Posted : Wednesday, January 13, 2010 2:26:35 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
@ vvs i'm selling trustco cause it has stagnated followin a massive share split...i fear the same for kplc...nambrew shares are locked up...anyways my tortoise is up and running...kenya re up 2.48% to close at 12.40 today..some deals at 13...good news to the ear...
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VituVingiSana
#54 Posted : Wednesday, January 13, 2010 3:06:30 PM
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@thedeal - So no Nambrew u want to sell... Those are so hard to get...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Jaguar
#55 Posted : Thursday, January 14, 2010 8:14:52 AM
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Joined: 6/7/2007
Posts: 263
Location: humu humu
Kengen has also attracted alot of foreign interest. Its been making gains daily
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VituVingiSana
#56 Posted : Friday, January 15, 2010 8:20:24 AM
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Posts: 18,134
Location: Nairobi
For KenGen... its the current heavy rains. The mroe the rain, the higher the water level in the dams. The more electricity they can produce to sell. KPLC has the demand but supply was lacking...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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VituVingiSana
#57 Posted : Monday, January 18, 2010 8:27:38 AM
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Posts: 18,134
Location: Nairobi
Problems with the live stream but shares seem to be on the up & up... KQ at 50/- (+8%) with a dearth of sellers...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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the deal
#58 Posted : Monday, January 18, 2010 8:39:59 AM
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Joined: 9/25/2009
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Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
@vvs we r on a bull run kq is now going @ 50 bob...safcom n kenya re r also on the up.
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Much Know
#59 Posted : Monday, January 18, 2010 8:49:45 AM
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Joined: 12/6/2008
Posts: 3,548
vvs, your KQ target has been met by far, are you jumping off? you know one cannot afford to be too optimistic. Take your money and run.
A New Kenya
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VituVingiSana
#60 Posted : Monday, January 18, 2010 9:10:54 AM
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Location: Nairobi
@muchknow - That is my dilemma as we chat...

IMHO, the price should be at least NAV since the assets are decent income producing assets (not dead assets) so at 25, 30, 35... it was a bargain... coz NAV at 30 Sep 2009 was 42/-

Since I do not have more info on the hedges except as provided in the Annual Report, AGM & presentation for 1H 2009-10 it is tuff to figure out the 'new NAV'...

Oil is over $80 thus there is an additional benefit from the reduction in losses from the hedges as of 30 Sep 2009.

Flew on KQ recently & my route/segment/flight was almost full but this might not be indicative of the rest of the network...

So... I am going to wait for a little while... I can afford the risk coz I am above my initial target...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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