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Safaricom @ 5/=
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simonkabz
#41 Posted : Thursday, November 26, 2009 8:53:00 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 3/2/2007
Posts: 8,776
Location: Cameroon
If I were still a shareholder,knowing kenyan's peculiar trading habits,I would bail out as fast as an ejection seat breaks fm the F16 floor mounting!

Njaamba nditù!
TULIA.........UFUNZWE!
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Mainat
#42 Posted : Friday, November 27, 2009 5:10:00 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/21/2006
Posts: 1,590
Assuming the drive up to Ksh5 is in part due to the marketing work done over the last few weeks to international investors,the Dec month is likely to see some movement South.

As of now,Safcom is trading at multiples of a fast growing business. Which it isn't.

Is it worth Ksh5? Maybe. Is it worth Ksh8? Nay.

www.mjengakenya.blogspot.com
Sehemu ndio nyumba
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egitau
#43 Posted : Friday, November 27, 2009 5:24:00 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 10/11/2009
Posts: 25
Be fearful while others are greedy! and Greedy when others are fearful.Am Selling all my Safaricom today and buy Equity.

egiggs
Knowledge Is Power But Action Get Things Done
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VituVingiSana
#44 Posted : Friday, November 27, 2009 5:44:00 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,117
Location: Nairobi
Well,if safaricom can make 40cents (EPS)... then 5/- is only 12.5 PE... which is not bad considering potential growth (esp data) in profits...

Voice profits are strained... but data is just starting... they have sold or given out THOUSANDS of modems... so lots of users out there...

Greedy when others are fearful,Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase WB
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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sheep
#45 Posted : Friday, November 27, 2009 7:20:00 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 7/24/2008
Posts: 781
Data accounts for 3.3% of total revenue.MPESA accounts for 7.9% of total revenue...MPESA grew by 247% and data by 160%..so if we are extremely exuberant and expect it to grow by the same margin MPESA will represent 27% of revenue and data 8.6% and would soon overlap voice as the main revenue driver.....then Safcom will be a first in the world
The utimate goal of investing is to buy low sell high;if we re-write this core equation in psychology terms it becomes buy fear sell greed.
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Mainat
#46 Posted : Friday, November 27, 2009 7:27:00 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/21/2006
Posts: 1,590
Note Safcom only gets a cut of Mpesa revenue. The data piece from mobile interneting looks promising but would even be more more promising if it can be commercialised rather just used for browsing which it hasn't done in the west...

www.mjengakenya.blogspot.com
Sehemu ndio nyumba
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Much Know
#47 Posted : Friday, November 27, 2009 7:33:00 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/6/2008
Posts: 3,548
Fixed lines is what will do it.telkom has taken us for granted for too long.i swear when the time comes i will dig this up and enjoy my 'i told u so' moment.

Niône mwisho ya mwezi pliz!
A New Kenya
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mwanahisa
#48 Posted : Friday, November 27, 2009 7:37:00 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
Last year Safcom's PAT fell by 24% while in the H1 2010 PAT was up 6.7%. This brings projected EPS to just about 33 cents for 2010 'ceteris paribus'. This will still be a whopping 25.9% increase. Hence forward PE of 14.78 at the current trading price. I would really be surprised if EPS went to 40 cents. Ergo - fairly priced unless we assume the market is in a bull phase!

Opportunity calls but few respond.
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VituVingiSana
#49 Posted : Friday, November 27, 2009 7:51:00 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,117
Location: Nairobi
@mwanahisa - I agree. I would say 40cents is on the HIGHER side. I should have given a range. 35-40 cents (10% difference)...

Voice ARPU is going down & will continue dropping... I think the data & M-Pesa will jump but still a SMALL percentage of overall revenues...

I think M-Pesa made a loss last year due to set-up,launch & expansion costs... maybe profits this year? [Please note Safaricom does NOT own M-Pesa]

Greedy when others are fearful,Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase WB
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Pretty
#50 Posted : Friday, November 27, 2009 8:13:00 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/8/2009
Posts: 263
Location: Gigiri, Nairobi
@Vituvingi kabisa

v M-pesa did not make losses

v Vodafon sucked up the coins

v Claimed innovation costs and contract agreement

v Something closer to that.


>>>>>>It saves you hell if you treat new acquaintances as enemies consistently until each proves otherwise or confirms - Jsanchiazh.
>>>>>>>In life,there are three classes of people,those who make things happen,those who watch things happen and those who ask what happened. Where do you fall?
>>>>>>
A thing of beauty is a joy for ever:
Its loveliness increases;
It will never pass into nothingness;
But still will keep a bower quiet for us,
and a sleep full of sweet dreams,
and health, and quiet breathing. - Keats

>>>>>>>In life,there are three classes of people,
1. Those who make things happen,
2. Those who watch things happen
3. And those who ask what happened.

Where do you fall?
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egitau
#51 Posted : Friday, November 27, 2009 8:37:00 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 10/11/2009
Posts: 25
Ma order za ku sell ni kibao kwanza kutoka kwa Ma bank,Safaricom imetomboka.A bird in hand is worth 2 in the Bush we we!

egiggs
Knowledge Is Power But Action Get Things Done
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Much Know
#52 Posted : Friday, November 27, 2009 8:39:00 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/6/2008
Posts: 3,548
its taken a sharp bend (KQ also) after 'kawaya' fiddled with ATS

Niône mwisho ya mwezi pliz!
A New Kenya
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VituVingiSana
#53 Posted : Friday, November 27, 2009 8:41:00 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,117
Location: Nairobi
@pretty - I am concerned with Safaricom only...

So did SAFARICOM make money on M-Pesa last year?
If yes,how do you know?

I think not based on what they told us in the Annual Report & AGM... though I think M-Pesa (for Safaricom) is a money maker this year as volumes are through the roof...

Greedy when others are fearful,Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase WB
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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egitau
#54 Posted : Friday, November 27, 2009 8:49:00 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 10/11/2009
Posts: 25
Inaonekana tuweke maorder za ku buy na 4.50 sasa! leo ni Friday Monday might rebound.I love this game!

egiggs
Knowledge Is Power But Action Get Things Done
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kizee
#55 Posted : Friday, November 27, 2009 9:35:00 AM
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Joined: 1/9/2008
Posts: 537
btw

whose buyin safcom? locals or foreigners?
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mukiha
#56 Posted : Friday, November 27, 2009 10:31:00 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/27/2008
Posts: 4,114
Supply is almost double the demand.......

Price dipped to 4.75....now 'refusing' to cross the 5 barrier....

As I predicted earlier,it is most likely to close the week at 4.75....

Happy to have sold some at 5.20 yesterday....

Next week is another week...and maybe another rally

Behind the gardens...Behind the wall...Under the tree (Including: Red...Dark Blue...Yellow)
Nothing is real unless it can be named; nothing has value unless it can be sold; money is worthless unless you spend it.
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Ferrari
#57 Posted : Friday, November 27, 2009 11:28:00 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 11/27/2009
Posts: 3
I've got 104,400 shares bought at IPO price,haven't offloaded any yet....still waiting for a better price in the coming weeks. Wanna see if the foreigners will drive the price higher considering Les Bailie has already talked to the Americans.
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VituVingiSana
#58 Posted : Friday, November 27, 2009 11:32:00 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,117
Location: Nairobi
Net buyers are foreigners (so far)... 41.5%

Greedy when others are fearful,Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase WB
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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kizee
#59 Posted : Friday, November 27, 2009 11:41:00 AM
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Joined: 1/9/2008
Posts: 537
@vvs..wats ur take? if foreigners are buyers i suspect this trend is not sustainabl..we may well see a flight to safety
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VituVingiSana
#60 Posted : Friday, November 27, 2009 11:42:00 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,117
Location: Nairobi
Just saw trades at 5/-... The supply is heavy but the buyers might be hiding... net buyers remain foreigners...

Greedy when others are fearful,Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase WB
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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