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KQ 2008-9 Results
VituVingiSana
#41 Posted : Friday, June 05, 2009 10:57:00 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,107
Location: Nairobi
Weee.... when did I post 1bn number? U must be mistaking me for someone else...

***I asked for the numbers...

Greedy when others are fearful,Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase WB
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
McReggae
#42 Posted : Friday, June 05, 2009 11:04:00 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/17/2008
Posts: 23,365
Location: Nairobi
VVS,

Pole,that was posted by somebody by the screen name Tot!!!!!


The chief value of money lies in the fact that one lives in a world in which it is overestimated.
..."Wewe ni mtu mdogo sana....na mwenye amekuandika pia ni mtu mdogo sana!".
Hi-Lo
#43 Posted : Friday, June 05, 2009 11:06:00 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 10/5/2007
Posts: 91
I thought the Hedges were supposed to smooth the profits...but what do we get...amplification? KQ should upload these secretive Hedge documents to enable shareholders check out any Madoffish clauses...we now know that these Anglo-Saxon derivatives brought the GFC due to greed and should be avoided like the plague..look at what they'v now done to KQ shareholders!!

Playing the stock market without insider info...is like buying a cow in the moonlight.
Mainat
#44 Posted : Friday, June 05, 2009 11:12:00 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/21/2006
Posts: 1,590
VV- the $28m gain bit...

www.mjengakenya.blogspot.com
Sehemu ndio nyumba
VituVingiSana
#45 Posted : Friday, June 05, 2009 11:18:00 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,107
Location: Nairobi
mcreggae: Umelipwa to finish me?

Hedges are to 'protect' or 'set' prices not to smooth profits (though that might a secondary effect).

*** Investors need more info on the hedges. This BS of 'hiding' info hurts a lot. We should make noise during the AGM.

Greedy when others are fearful,Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase WB
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
McReggae
#46 Posted : Friday, June 05, 2009 11:20:00 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/17/2008
Posts: 23,365
Location: Nairobi
VVS,

You must be misquoting me!!!


The chief value of money lies in the fact that one lives in a world in which it is overestimated.
..."Wewe ni mtu mdogo sana....na mwenye amekuandika pia ni mtu mdogo sana!".
VituVingiSana
#47 Posted : Friday, June 05, 2009 11:25:00 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,107
Location: Nairobi
I stand by it... coz the 'loss' has been taken in the Income Statement (as on 31 Mar 2009). Any increase in the price of oil will 'increase' the UNREALIZED PROFIT (essentially decrease the unrealized loss)... note all the pari passus... with higher oil prices (above $50)... KQ can writeback the losses. The real proof is when the forwards are settled.

Greedy when others are fearful,Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase WB
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
mtaalam
#48 Posted : Friday, June 05, 2009 11:29:00 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 11/2/2006
Posts: 519
I never thought I'd see the day when a 10cent would look so good.

The best time to plant a tree is twenty years ago. The second best time is now.
sayshap
#49 Posted : Friday, June 05, 2009 11:29:00 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/28/2008
Posts: 31
I have never seen a friend of mine so happy like today!Keep it up man,but wembe ni ule ule.After every bubble there must be a burst.@VVS.....Let him enjoy himself,and let us hope for the best.

I never follow my dreams,instead I hunt them down and beat them up into submission...!
VituVingiSana
#50 Posted : Friday, June 05, 2009 11:35:00 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,107
Location: Nairobi
Dividend ni 1/- nor 10cents. Or did I mistake what you were implying?

Greedy when others are fearful,Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase WB
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Ric dees
#51 Posted : Friday, June 05, 2009 11:39:00 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/6/2008
Posts: 632
My favourite topic..I am surprised many of you did not know about KQ's strategy of Hedging against oil prices and on this note do they have guys who trade on Futures???...

Last time i asked this if Kq is making money..i got a dress down with laughable responses..now maybe Myks,Jaymiggy and Impunity can explain and curiously they are silent..???

With that said what most of us need to realise is that airlines merely seek to BREAK-EVEN with fuel hedges and caps not to PROFIT from them hence the shock from many of you...bsically it's an attempt to achieve a fixed cost in a volatile area.

Despite all this airlines favour hedging for fuel as an operational strategy,if one can factor 60 -70 % of fuel price risk then that is a huge advantage on a risk/return basis even if you end up paying 10-20% more if the market moves against you.

I think 20% overpayment is better than 60-70% shock price increase.





Heart is what separates the good from the great - Micheal Jordan.

The greatest danger in times of turbulence is not the turbulence; it is to act with yesterday's logic.
Impunity
#52 Posted : Friday, June 05, 2009 11:55:00 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 3/2/2009
Posts: 26,328
Location: Masada
@Ric dees....I dont remember saying anything about KQ in relation to hedging and also profit; and if so provide the post.The best we can do now is to pray for the investors like VVS and employees like myks.

Which is more dirty,the pig or Kenyan mp?
Portfolio: Sold
You know you've made it when you get a parking space for your yatcht.

Goals
#53 Posted : Friday, June 05, 2009 12:00:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 10/6/2008
Posts: 118
Future profit will improve since the hedge loss has been captured. the strategy is to buy for long term when the price has stablised. The loss will not affect the cashflow. This hedging biz is tough to understand.

'men will have to give account on the day of judgment for every careless word they have spoken' (Mat 12:36).
'set a guard over my mouth and keep watch over the door of my lips' (Ps 141:3).



Gordon Gekko
#54 Posted : Friday, June 05, 2009 12:39:00 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 5/27/2008
Posts: 3,760
It is NOT gloom. Pax numbers are up,turnover is up. What I understand is that this hedging thing for this yr 09-10 has been accounted for in the released results. Really means we should be looking at very healthy numbers this year.
McReggae
#55 Posted : Friday, June 05, 2009 1:33:00 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/17/2008
Posts: 23,365
Location: Nairobi
From the results I think KQ has made a profit!!! When you place a provsion of 'unrealized losses' of 7.5B and declare a loss of 5.66B,we are talking of a profit of about Kshs 1.8B

The results next year will be so good I suspect!!!

It's a buy after the price hits rock bottom!!!

Book closure for dividend payment is 30th Sept. 2009!!!!!...payment around 23rd Oct.

The chief value of money lies in the fact that one lives in a world in which it is overestimated.
..."Wewe ni mtu mdogo sana....na mwenye amekuandika pia ni mtu mdogo sana!".
ecstacy
#56 Posted : Friday, June 05, 2009 2:31:00 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2008
Posts: 4,449
place buy orders at Ksh. 15/=...
myks
#57 Posted : Friday, June 05, 2009 3:51:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/14/2008
Posts: 107
Impunity....You are the kind of fellow who blieves that the employer is your mother!!..and who told u I work there?
Rick,u seem to confuse issues here,who fought you about KQ making money or not? I told u KQ doesnt operate a 777-300ER as u like to think,and al stand by it till the day I die...

Gravity; Its not just the law,its reality.
VituVingiSana
#58 Posted : Friday, June 05, 2009 11:04:00 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,107
Location: Nairobi
For those who want more details,KQ has finally posted the Investor Presentation online at www.kenya-airways.com


Greedy when others are fearful,Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase WB
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Tot
#59 Posted : Saturday, June 06, 2009 9:09:00 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/18/2009
Posts: 15
@mc Reggae,

Like i had put in my earlier mail,if you remove the cost of fuel hedge for the post balnce sheet period,(kshs. 7.5b),you will find that KQ has actually made a profit of Kshs. 1.8b. We thus expect the company to post very good results in the year 09-10
Hi-Lo
#60 Posted : Saturday, June 06, 2009 1:51:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 10/5/2007
Posts: 91
I knew it...there was a mole at KQ that prepared the hedges...a double agent eating both ways. And his name is R Nutall BA(Math,Oxon)...masquerading as Commercial Director (off you go!!!). A whole 8.9bn has been wiped off KQ balance sheet thro' gambling by these wolf(ves)...which has taken a long 13 years to build!! But it was not gambling...it was pure con...why on earth is it that KQ can only gain from the hedges if crude is above USD 110...who doesnt know the crude price range at least in 2 year range is [50-80]?!!! Casual look at the Hedge graph,the Ksh 7.5bn is as good as gone...despite remarks to the effect that some loss may not be realised...KQ is now a really looooooooooooong term investment...

Playing the stock market without insider info...is like buying a cow in the moonlight.
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