@Njunge - LOL... Like I said this can fill a book... One more shot at this...
Think of it as a road... Thika Rd with multiple 'turn off' or exit points for cars.You start from Thika... no entrances leading to the road... only exits... (Mumias is a net supplier. Along the way are net users)
If 1,000 cars start off in Thika & filter out along the way to Ruiru,Kasarani,Wundayi (representing towns like Eldoret,Kisumu,Nakuru) but by the time the remainder reach Muthaiga Roundabout there are only 200 cars... no traffic jam... things are a-OK.
If there a few (100 cars) leave the road between Thika & Muthaiga then there will be 900 cars backed up at the roundabout if all these cars are headed to Westlands (Nairobi being the ultimate destination for power) via Forest Rd. The backup is coz the 'size' of the road narrows as well as 'hurdles' like the roundabout (technical concerns).
The cars represent the 'electricity/electrons',the road the transmission cables,the exits the users in the towns,the roundabouts the hurdles,transformers,loss factors,etc
There is a 27km single circuit transmission cable from Mumias-Musaga (132 kV transmission line). This line was upgraded during 2009 but there needs to be further strengthening/upgrading along the way to other towns after Musaga.
Please remember the big kahuna is & remains Nairobi (50%+ of all electricity consumption) with MOST of the 24hour large users e.g. BAT,EABL,etc.
Mt.Kenya (aka Central) has a higher consumption per km square vs Western region. Includes Thika with Bidco.
Sugar mills do NOT use much/need much 'on-grid' electricity. They burn bagasse for steam production which is a 'waste' product . Mumias burns the 'excess' to produce extra steam to run tubines to produce (& sell) electricity to KPLC. Mumias has been off-grid for many,many,many years. All their employees get 'free' electricity.
Pan-paper as you point out is history. Part of Panpaper's 'heat/steam' needs came from burning waste (wood/cellulose). Industries need 'steam' not electricity as such... There will be a need for some electricity but 'steam' production is the largest use for paper/sugar production.
Peak demand in 'West Region' is 217 MW. That is PEAK. Mumias problem is supply not taken up during the night (off-peak). West region covers a huge area. It includes areas all the way south of Mumias like Kisii,etc... as well as north towards Elgon,Turkana...
Anyway... there are hardly any large scale INDUSTRIAL users (except sugar firms but see above) in the West region that run 24 hours... and no need to run 24 hours in this economy...
Hydro turbines are much harder to start up & shut down (than steam) so KPLC has to take their power. Turbines at dams (kiambere,kindaruma) are behemoths. If they allow you to see these (security is tighter nowadays) you will be in awe. HUGE... and noisy!!! But a nice rhythmic feel to them. They start up slowly,pick up speed & stopping them takes a while... so you can't switch them on/off like a light switch...
Diesel plants are easier (than steam) to cycle up or down...
All said & done... I hope KPLC can find ways of using Mumias electricity before using IPPs. The best way remains increasing off-peak usage in Western Kenya. KPLC needs a new pricing scheme for that area! Mumias has the capacity to produce another 25MW from bagasse.
Greedy when others are fearful,Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase WB
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett