Wazua
»
Investor
»
Economy
»
Mobile Loans Ponzi
Rank: Member Joined: 2/20/2007 Posts: 767
|
Safcons FULIZA at 0.5% PER DAY. How can this not contribute to Ponzi economics. Please tell me this is not compounded. They must find it difficult....... those who have taken authority as the truth, rather than truth as the authority. -G. Massey.
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 1/8/2018 Posts: 2,212 Location: DC (Dustbowl County)
|
sitaki.kujulikana wrote:this form of credit has always existed, in the form of loan sharks - and contrary to what some believe the poor people in the informal sector are actually decent human beings, responsible people who actually pay their loans.
The problem is that some see those poor guys in the informal sector as thugs, petty gamblers, with no sense of responsibility and its only time until they start defaulting, but as mentioned above most business in this sector need daily or very frequent capital, they get get that make some money with the same at the end of the day they pay the loan remain with a few coins they buy unga for the family and wait for the next day. And these type of ferras have also existed from time immemorial and will continue to exist till the world ends. M-pesa and mobile loans have been a life saver for the informal sector which by far employs majority of Kenyans. As many have pointed out on this thread, for informal businesses (eg mama mboga) that need small amounts of capital to start, this is a lifesaver for them to start small and grow big. 5% growth rates of the economy do not happen by accident. Those who prudently use these facilities benefit big from them and it is a win win situation for the m-loansharks and the kadogo economy.
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/22/2009 Posts: 7,841
|
tom_boy wrote:Safcons FULIZA at 0.5% PER DAY. How can this not contribute to Ponzi economics. Please tell me this is not compounded. First off, familiarise yourself with the meaning of a ponzi scheme, then we will talk. Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
|
|
|
Rank: Veteran Joined: 7/3/2007 Posts: 1,635
|
MaichBlack wrote:Lolest! wrote:Angelica _ann wrote:Gathige wrote:tom_boy wrote:I dont see how some people do not see mobile loans as a form of ponzi scheme. Njoroge borrows from A to repay B. Each time his loan gets bigger and bigger until eventually he will default.
I bet most people do not do any value creating work with this cash.
What % of total loans goes to mobile lending? What % of this ends up in sport pesa et al? The part I like about mobile money is the ease by which the meet the customers needs. You can imagine someone who needs fare to get to a work site who will be paid at the end of the day. He borrows the fare, gets back in the evening and then repays his loan and builds his credit profile. The overall interest rate may be higher than conventional rates but the ease and convenice is great. Would you borrow from a bank if you know outright the interest rate is 50% pa, of course not. I think therein lies the risk to the greater economy since i believe it is not sustainable in the long run. No you wouldn't but the math biz guys are doing is simple what I end up with minus what I've spent(per day). Remember, life is very expensive in the kadogo economy These loans have their target audience and most wazuans are not in that category. Mama mboga takes a loan in the morning buys her wares sells them by evening and repays the loan (even if it rolls over) If she borrows 2700, turn over is 5,000/= and she pays 3,000/=, she just made a cool 2,000/= she couldn't have made. Hiyo ndiyo hesabu yake which makes a lot of sense!!! Come December, she decides to start selling live chicken on the side. She borrows 20,000/= at the beginning of the month, buys and sells chicken the whole month, at the end of the month she has gross of 60,000/= from chicken sales for the month she pays say 24,000/= and remains with 36,000/= she couldn't have made. It suddenly starts raining, a hawker with no "float" quickly borrows some money, rushes to Kamukunji or wherever buys umbrellas sells most of them the same day, makes a tidy sum and repays the same day or within 30 days depending on his "business plan". Not everything in the market is meant for everyone. This is very true. I discovered a gentleman in Kibera two years ago who told me he borrows money early in the morning, before heading to Marikiti and repays each night. Apparently he has always done this but used to use a local Shylock in the past, who was not very reliable. Banks are simply showing up for the party. With razor think interest spreads, this was bound to happen. MFI's are going to take a major hit with this encroachment on their 'high cost credit' turf. I hope someone is advising them on how to convert into branch-less networks to stay alive. "The opposite of a correct statement is a false statement. But the opposite of a profound truth may well be another profound truth." (Niels Bohr)
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/22/2009 Posts: 7,841
|
Before we go throwing words around!!! Meaning of a Ponzi SchemeNever count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
|
|
|
Rank: New-farer Joined: 4/3/2010 Posts: 61 Location: Nairobi
|
tom_boy wrote:Banks have gone as far as offering day loans interest free on mobile. What other use can this money be put to except gambling? Who borrows money in the morning with confidence of repaying by midnight other than a gambler?
What does this portend for out banks? What percent of money is lent to mobile fellas? If an event was to happen that rendered Wanjikus unable to pay, would we see banks collapsing ala mortgage crisis? What kind of event would this be?
Its very scary. I think banks are getting careless. Wanjiku is doing a ponzi scheme via mobile lending from different offerers, at some point the cookie will crumble! This will be the best economic driver boss for the low end business people it just cant get any better... i say this from experience.
|
|
|
Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/13/2015 Posts: 1,654
|
Mobile loans are the kenyan equivalent of credit cards. Price control thro' rate caps never works the market will always find an alternative to meet demand for credit. Situation in Britain. Quote:A Labour government would cap credit card interest so that no-one pays back more than twice the amount of their original borrowing, shadow chancellor John McDonnell has announced. In his keynote speech to Labour's annual conference in Brighton, McDonnell will accuse the Government of creating a "debt crisis" which is becoming a threat to the economy, with 3 million people trapped in persistent debt with credit cards in the red by a total of £14 billion. He will call on ministers to apply the same cap on credit card debts as on pay-day loans, limiting interest and charges to 100% of the amount borrowed. He will promise that if they fail to act, Labour will change the law when it wins power. The Financial Conduct Authority estimates that more than 3 million credit card users - a tenth of the total - are in persistent debt, handing over more in interest and charges than in paying down their loans over the past 18 months. https://www.mirror.co.uk...ap-credit-card-11231825
|
|
|
Rank: Member Joined: 2/20/2007 Posts: 767
|
I am sure you know what I mean when I say mobile loans are a form of ponzi. Stop detracting from the main point. The main point is that in my view, 1. mobile loans are not sustainable in the long term ( just like ponzi scheme) 2. They are not beneficial to the majority ( just like a ponzi). 3. They are not capable of helping the majority get out of poverty. Indeed, they may perpetuate poverty by encouraging borrowing at exorbitant rates. 4. Banks may be lending too much to mobile loan customer at expense of sme customer. This hurts the economy. 5. Too much lending to an asset segment that even cbk has not recognised as an asset segment (mobile loans), a segment that is high risk and yet the full high risk is not captured in provisioning. 6. No data on where the mobile money loans are going. Just alot of yada yada about mama mboga and hawkers. ( just like in a ponzi where one never really knows where the money is being invested). I could go on and on.... They must find it difficult....... those who have taken authority as the truth, rather than truth as the authority. -G. Massey.
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/22/2009 Posts: 7,841
|
tom_boy wrote:I am sure you know what I mean when I say mobile loans are a form of ponzi. Stop detracting from the main point. The main point is that in my view, 1. mobile loans are not sustainable in the long term ( just like ponzi scheme) 2. They are not beneficial to the majority ( just like a ponzi). 3. They are not capable of helping the majority get out of poverty. Indeed, they may perpetuate poverty by encouraging borrowing at exorbitant rates. 4. Banks may be lending too much to mobile loan customer at expense of sme customer. This hurts the economy. 5. Too much lending to an asset segment that even cbk has not recognised as an asset segment (mobile loans), a segment that is high risk and yet the full high risk is not captured in provisioning. 6. No data on where the mobile money loans are going. Just alot of yada yada about mama mboga and hawkers. ( just like in a ponzi where one never really knows where the money is being invested). I could go on and on.... 1) There is a segment of society that finds mobile loans very beneficial to them. If you are not one of them, leave the loans alone. You don't have to eat everything on the Menu! 2) There are people who borrow and waste money. Even the "normal" loans from banks. Middle class has a habit of borrowing for consumption - Holidays, gadgets, weddings, holidays etc. Anyone with basic economics knowledge will tell you that is a very stupid thing to do! It is not the bank's responsibility to follow you and monitor how you spend money (unless it is something like asset financing etc). The bank's main concern and rightly so, is your ability to repay. 3) A major blanket default will never happen unless there is a major catastrophic event like a breakout of a major and sudden war. The lenders don't just wake up one morning and lend you 70k!!! They start small. say 1k and 2k and that grows depending on your history. The margins are huge enough to cover individual defaults, the risks are spread and the tenure of the loans are short. I don't see what event would lead Kenyans to default enmass on small to average amount loans. May be you should give us one or two examples of REALISTIC events that might lead to sudden (30 day window) MASS defaults!!4) Banks are businesses. Not charities or the government. They deploy their money in the most profitable manner like all the other businesses or individuals. As bad as it might sound, it is not their responsibility to ensure that SMEs have access to credit (at an expense to their bottom line). That is why the government comes up with things like the youth fund, women fund etc. And it is not just banks. 5) To small businesses that need quick money to be repaid in days or few weeks, the interest is not exorbitant (many people have explained this here). When you compound, of course it is huge but the small business owners don't compound either theoretically (like you are doing) or practically. They pay within the 30 days in which period they will have made much money. 6) Finally, these products have a target market. I for one wouldn't go for mobile loans coz whatever I am doing would require a cycle of number of months (meaning the compounding would be real) and would need a larger amount than I would get via mobile loans. But if I was in a short cycle business like mama mboga, hawker, kiosk, restaurant, broker, most types of traders (getting potatoes from Kinangop, fish from Kisumu, selling uniform - I would need more stock in January compared to most months etc.) I would definitely take advantage of the facility if and when need be! Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
|
|
|
Rank: Member Joined: 2/20/2007 Posts: 767
|
MaichBlack wrote:tom_boy wrote:I am sure you know what I mean when I say mobile loans are a form of ponzi. Stop detracting from the main point. The main point is that in my view, 1. mobile loans are not sustainable in the long term ( just like ponzi scheme) 2. They are not beneficial to the majority ( just like a ponzi). 3. They are not capable of helping the majority get out of poverty. Indeed, they may perpetuate poverty by encouraging borrowing at exorbitant rates. 4. Banks may be lending too much to mobile loan customer at expense of sme customer. This hurts the economy. 5. Too much lending to an asset segment that even cbk has not recognised as an asset segment (mobile loans), a segment that is high risk and yet the full high risk is not captured in provisioning. 6. No data on where the mobile money loans are going. Just alot of yada yada about mama mboga and hawkers. ( just like in a ponzi where one never really knows where the money is being invested). I could go on and on.... 1) There is a segment of society that finds mobile loans very beneficial to them. If you are not one of them, leave the loans alone. You don't have to eat everything on the Menu! 2) There are people who borrow and waste money. Even the "normal" loans from banks. Middle class has a habit of borrowing for consumption - Holidays, gadgets, weddings, holidays etc. Anyone with basic economics knowledge will tell you that is a very stupid thing to do! It is not the bank's responsibility to follow you and monitor how you spend money (unless it is something like asset financing etc). The bank's main concern and rightly so, is you ability to repay. 3) A major blanket default will never happen unless there is a major catastrophic event like a breakout of a major and sudden war. The lenders don't just wake up one morning and lend you 70k!!! They start small. say 1k and 2k and that grows depending on your history. The margins are huge enough to cover individual defaults, the risks are spread and the tenure of the loans are short. I don't see what event would lead Kenyans to default enmass on small to average amount loans. May be you should give us one or two examples of REALISTIC events that might lead to sudden (30 day window) MASS defaults!!4) Banks are businesses. Not charities or the government. They deploy their money in the most profitable manner like all the other businesses or individuals. As bad as it might sound, it is not their responsibility to ensure that SMEs have access to credit (at an expense to their bottom line). That is why the government comes up with things like the youth fund, women fund etc. And it is not just banks. 5) To small businesses that need quick money to be repaid in days or few weeks, the interest is not exorbitant (many people have explained this here). When you compound, of course it is huge but the small business owners don't compound either theoretically (like you are doing) or practically. They pay within the 30 days in which period they will have made much money. 6) Finally, these products have a target market. I for one wouldn't go for mobile loans coz whatever I am doing would require a cycle of number of months (meaning the compounding would be real) and would need a larger amount than I would get via mobile loans. But if I was in a short cycle business like mama mboga, hawker, kiosk, restaurant, broker, most types of traders (getting potatoes from Kinangop, fish from Kisumu, selling uniform - I would need more stock in January compared to most months etc.) I would definitely take advantage of the facility if and when need be! Too much theory. Zero data to support it. Time will tell what the true position is. You evidently have never heard of black swan events and risk management They must find it difficult....... those who have taken authority as the truth, rather than truth as the authority. -G. Massey.
|
|
|
Wazua
»
Investor
»
Economy
»
Mobile Loans Ponzi
Forum Jump
You cannot post new topics in this forum.
You cannot reply to topics in this forum.
You cannot delete your posts in this forum.
You cannot edit your posts in this forum.
You cannot create polls in this forum.
You cannot vote in polls in this forum.
|