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CARBACID-Any hope?
grahamsdisciple
#21 Posted : Friday, October 23, 2015 9:51:37 AM
Rank: New-farer

Joined: 10/19/2015
Posts: 21
Location: Everywhere
VituVingiSana wrote:
grahamsdisciple wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
grahamsdisciple wrote:
As a shareholder, my biggest issue with the stock is that its over-capitalised. They need some debt to balance out the capital structure. An action management could take is to raise 1.5 billion through a corporate bond and buy half of its shareholding back. This will double EPS and ROE significantly.

As a Ben Graham disciple, you should be ashamed of thinking this! There's nothing like 'over-capitalized' considering the current cost of borrowing. Why borrow at 25% when they can invest excess cash at 23%?
If they have excess cash, they can distribute it as a dividend but asking Carbacid to borrow at 25% (or higher) is crazy.

BTW, stock buybacks are not allowed in Kenya. Even if there was a stock buyback, it should only be done when the price is lower than the intrinsic value.




First of all stock buy backs are about to be re-introduced
Wake me up when the long-time-in-limbo Companies Bill becomes the Law. Until it is law it will not matter.
(http://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/business/Will-share-buybacks-save-Kenyan-companies--stock-/-/2560/2691460/-/13b7n2l/-/index.html).

Secondly, no body said anything about borrowing now, but with the amount of free cash flow Carbacid has, they can borrow at 12% in bad times and maybe lower in good times. The new 'normal' is higher. Banks have been issuing bonds at 12+% when things looked good post-Eurobond. GoK issued tax-free IFBs at 11.75%. If Carbacid was to borrow at 12% then the earnings yield should exceed 12% on a consistent basis. What the current earnings yield of Carbacid?


Third, you are the kind of people who read the summary of a book instead of reading the whole book. Ad hominem attack, eh? I'd invite you to read Security Analysis particularly part III when he focuses on equity analysis. There are plenty of times when he says that sometimes debt is good if its properly managed Yes, sometimes, if managed properly and yes, he even alludes to a company being over-capitalised. I maintain that the company is over-capitalised. They have ROE of around 22% and net margins of 50% if you take last 5-year average so how is borrowing at 14-15% not prudent??? Sigh. I have read Security Analysis. The ROE is irrelevant unless the price = ROE. What the Earnings Yield? Is it 22%?


A firm's ROE is irrelevant when the PRICE is much higher than the NAV/share. The NAV = Equity = Shareholders' Funds.

The net margin of 50% is bolstered by income from deposits/bonds/bills. Nevertheless, I want to hear you out on how you came to a NET MARGIN (also define what the NM is) of 50%. Furthermore, please use actual numbers so we compare apples to apples.

History is history. Until we go back to long-term rates of 12-15% [you said 12% then you said 14-15%] we should look at 25% to be prudent. What Graham called the Margin of Error.

What I said [& I am happy to refer to Security Analysis] is what Warren Buffett calls 'excess cash' which is yielding less by remaining with the firm than it would for the shareholders.

If shareholders can get 22% (less 3.3% w/holding tax) from CBK then it makes little sense for Carbacid to buy 22% bonds, pay 6.6% tax on the interest then shareholders pay 5% on the dividend.

Buying back shares using debt is Financial Engineering. It may may sense in a STABLE market but not when things are volatile. Carbacid shares trade at a substantial premium to NAV.





I agree with a number of your points, if we were major shareholders we'd be slugging it out at the AGM. For now, wazua will do. Sometimes a company can be over-capitalised and part of that is as you've said holding excess cash predominantly through their surplus reserve. You can leverage on your capital in good times when rates are low by borrowing at below market rates on a corporate bond and return cash to your shareholders either through a special dividend or buy-back that increases their total return on investment. This is all I'm suggesting.


By NM I meant PAT/Gross. Nonetheless, on an operating basis they make roughly 47% margin. By way of back of hand calculations, they can increase EPS by 1.93 to 3.00 by doing this. Moreover, their EPS would be more sensitive to changes in gross sales than it is at the moment. ARM sells at a higher multiple than Bamburi because they have a more aggressive capital structure. (Not that I'm advocating for so much debt). Shareholders would benefit.

As for new normal, there's nothing like that. People always say the world has changed but as they say, the more things change the more they stay the same. Rates will come down soon, I don't see us going into election period with such elevated rates albeit the macro imbalances are getting worse.
Realtreaty
#22 Posted : Friday, October 23, 2015 4:54:57 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 8/16/2011
Posts: 2,386
Results 2015 preserved on Dry Ice!!!!!!! The Secrets are locked in the strong coldroom!!!!
BGL
#23 Posted : Friday, October 23, 2015 6:22:52 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 10/11/2009
Posts: 1,223
The end year results have been released.
Some key highlights:
-Turnover at 809mn which is more or less the same as 826mn reported last year.
-PBT at 580mn vs 597mn last year but a higher taxation charge of 186mn vs 106mn which has drasticaly reduced the PAT to 393mn compared to 439mn last year which translates to an EPS of 1.55 vs 1.93.
-Dividend remains the same at 70cents per share.
History will not remember you for your IQ. It will remember you for what you did. “Genius is 1 percent inspiration, 99 percent perspiration.” Thomas Edison
Realtreaty
#24 Posted : Friday, October 23, 2015 6:51:38 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 8/16/2011
Posts: 2,386
BGL wrote:
The end year results have been released.
Some key highlights:
-Turnover at 809mn which is more or less the same as 826mn reported last year.
-PBT at 580mn vs 597mn last year but a higher taxation charge of 186mn vs 106mn which has drasticaly reduced the PAT to 393mn compared to 439mn last year which translates to an EPS of 1.55 vs 1.93.
-Dividend remains the same at 70cents per share.

@BGL please Link us to the "Rink" tht will be my bullets to those who threw stones to me!!!!!Applause Applause Laughing out loudly
murchr
#25 Posted : Friday, October 23, 2015 6:55:55 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
BGL wrote:
The end year results have been released.
Some key highlights:
-Turnover at 809mn which is more or less the same as 826mn reported last year.
-PBT at 580mn vs 597mn last year but a higher taxation charge of 186mn vs 106mn which has drasticaly reduced the PAT to 393mn compared to 439mn last year which translates to an EPS of 1.55 vs 1.93.
-Dividend remains the same at 70cents per share.


What is ailing this company?
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
Realtreaty
#26 Posted : Saturday, October 24, 2015 8:47:57 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 8/16/2011
Posts: 2,386
Applause Applause Applause Now, Now Now @Wondergirl, WILL YOU MARRY ME?
I predicted RIGHT and You got what I said after Mashujaa day, Get your 70cts
Hao majamaa wachana nao, they gave you too much analysis that bore nothing at the end...@pesaNane,@instinct etc
We say, why go to the flowing rivers to fetch water? If rivers are flowing, the water table is high (Shallow) and you can easily sink a shallow borehole and enjoy clean water!!! Too much analysis is for the Auditors and consultants
Boris Boyka
#27 Posted : Saturday, October 24, 2015 10:42:32 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/15/2013
Posts: 1,977
Location: Here
Realtreaty wrote:
Applause Applause Applause Now, Now Now @Wondergirl, WILL YOU MARRY ME?
I predicted RIGHT and You got what I said after Mashujaa day, Get your 70cts
Hao majamaa wachana nao, they gave you too much analysis that bore nothing at the end...@pesaNane,@instinct etc
We say, why go to the flowing rivers to fetch water? If rivers are flowing, the water table is high (Shallow) and you can easily sink a shallow borehole and enjoy clean water!!! Too much analysis is for the Auditors and consultants

Okay!
Everybody STEALS, a THIEF is one who's CAUGHT stealing something of LITTLE VALUE. !!!
sparkly
#28 Posted : Sunday, October 25, 2015 6:46:53 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
Realtreaty wrote:
Applause Applause Applause Now, Now Now @Wondergirl, WILL YOU MARRY ME?

Aren't you already married to Miss Candy BRitam?
Life is short. Live passionately.
Wondergirl
#29 Posted : Sunday, October 25, 2015 11:28:23 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/12/2009
Posts: 312
Realtreaty wrote:
Applause Applause Applause Now, Now Now @Wondergirl, WILL YOU MARRY ME?
I predicted RIGHT and You got what I said after Mashujaa day, Get your 70cts
Hao majamaa wachana nao, they gave you too much analysis that bore nothing at the end...@pesaNane,@instinct etc
We say, why go to the flowing rivers to fetch water? If rivers are flowing, the water table is high (Shallow) and you can easily sink a shallow borehole and enjoy clean water!!! Too much analysis is for the Auditors and consultants

Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly thanks bro,you were right.
jawgey
#30 Posted : Sunday, October 25, 2015 10:05:26 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/13/2014
Posts: 398
Location: Denmark
Wondergirl wrote:
Realtreaty wrote:
Applause Applause Applause Now, Now Now @Wondergirl, WILL YOU MARRY ME?
I predicted RIGHT and You got what I said after Mashujaa day, Get your 70cts
Hao majamaa wachana nao, they gave you too much analysis that bore nothing at the end...@pesaNane,@instinct etc
We say, why go to the flowing rivers to fetch water? If rivers are flowing, the water table is high (Shallow) and you can easily sink a shallow borehole and enjoy clean water!!! Too much analysis is for the Auditors and consultants

Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly thanks bro,you were right.

Bro..?? Laughing out loudly. Worse than friendzone
Seeing is believing
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