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How to tell NSE has topped/Maxed out.
Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 985 Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
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murchr wrote:hisah wrote:Britam - 2yr chart shows strong rejection from the 40/- zone level. Chartists will tell that the coming correction will not be gentle...  Equity - 2yr chart says thin sim or no thin sim, upside is very limited!  Centum - 2yr chart. This is my favourite coz it's such a nice selloff bazooka cocktail which will leave serious hangover side-effects for late the party-goers. Best bull trap setup at the NSE so far!  I will be waiting for those lessons learnt tales. And they'll be plenty as the trapped realize the pretty shiny golden handcuffs just work like the normal handcuffs.  Interesting .... waiting for the lessons.  LONG SHOOTING STAR CANDLESTICK FOR THE THREE
“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/3/2014 Posts: 257
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So now that support for Britam at 27 has broken is this the beginning? Safaricom does not look in good shape either, The other two that had been graphed, Equity and Centum are shaky but not as badly as Britam.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 7/1/2014 Posts: 903 Location: sky
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these numbers means alot, but to me they are scaring! INVESTOR PROFILE AT NSE Q3 2013 Foreign corporate 40% foreign individuals 0.6% local corporate 37% local individuals 20% Q3 2014 Foreign corporate 21% foreign individuals 1% local corporate 25% local individuals 52%There are only two emotions in the stock market, fear and hope. The problem is, you hope when you should fear and fear when you should hope
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 7/1/2014 Posts: 903 Location: sky
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these numbers means alot, but to me they are scaring! INVESTOR PROFILE AT NSE Q3 2013 Foreign corporate 40% foreign individuals 0.6% local corporate 37% local individuals 20% Q3 2014 Foreign corporate 21% foreign individuals 1% local corporate 25% local individuals 52%There are only two emotions in the stock market, fear and hope. The problem is, you hope when you should fear and fear when you should hope
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/23/2011 Posts: 1,740 Location: Nairobi
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Why are they scaring, it only means the locals now appreciate the stock market much better than before. If these local are many in number i.e. buyer of small number of shares it may also mean that you will never miss someone to sell or buy from. To me this is a better scenario.
On the other hand when the foreigner decide to come back to the market you can make a kill
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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littledove wrote:these numbers means alot, but to me they are scaring!
INVESTOR PROFILE AT NSE
Q3 2013
Foreign corporate 40%
foreign individuals 0.6%
local corporate 37%
local individuals 20%
Q3 2014
Foreign corporate 21%
foreign individuals 1%
local corporate 25%
local individuals 52%
@littledove - thanks for this treasure snippet
So both local and foreign institutionals have been on the sellside in 2014 while the market rallied into heavy resistance forest (5000-5500 layers). Meanwhile wanjikus piled in... Ai caramba!
Since Sept 22nd when NSE20 closed @5406 the slide has now broken below 5000 handle with the market closing @4910 on Dec 19. The week starting on Dec 15th saw some heavy turnover (heavyweight counters) for 3 days in a row and in the process NSE20 skidded below the 5000 handle since Aug 2014.
Q1 2015 will be critical for the bulls to hold the fort. If not, we're just getting started on the lower lows journey! If mpesa bank fails to break above 15 with aplomb on the next attempt that will be the best signal. Watch out for the banks they're weak. They've been so since Nov 2013 and I've seemed to be a madman as they rallied. If they reverse their 2014 gains, the market will be in a bear...
And lastly USD > KES 90 is a formidable NSE bulls opponent. Weak KES = weak NSE.
Waiting for the golden handcuff tales.$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Member Joined: 11/7/2013 Posts: 127 Location: Nairobi, Kenya
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streetwise wrote:Why are they scaring, it only means the locals now appreciate the stock market much better than before. If these local are many in number i.e. buyer of small number of shares it may also mean that you will never miss someone to sell or buy from. To me this is a better scenario.
On the other hand when the foreigner decide to come back to the market you can make a kill
What it means is that the vibe that ropes ordinary wanjiku in is out, that is, ''There's (quick) money to be made at the NSE...buy this, that and that''...unfortunately they are buying at highs ignorant of all techs and in some cases fundies (how else would you explain Mumias?!!) ... Foreign and Local institutional do their research well, and respond to Intl market news/ movements. Golden handcuffs as @Hisah says will check-in...and then tales of burnt fingers and local investors saying they lost Kshs. (they bought high, forced to sell at a loss) at the NSE will suffice once again ruining the reputation amongst other future investors. Reasons people should use, not common, but their own sense when investing. I went into the (Ferry) industry knowing the same thing I knew with all other businesses I went into- Nothing. Then I built it from there. - Sheldon Adelson (Titans at the Table- Giants of Macau)
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Rank: Member Joined: 2/1/2010 Posts: 272 Location: Nairobi
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hisah wrote:littledove wrote:these numbers means alot, but to me they are scaring!
INVESTOR PROFILE AT NSE
Q3 2013
Foreign corporate 40%
foreign individuals 0.6%
local corporate 37%
local individuals 20%
Q3 2014
Foreign corporate 21%
foreign individuals 1%
local corporate 25%
local individuals 52%
@littledove - thanks for this treasure snippet
So both local and foreign institutionals have been on the sellside in 2014 while the market rallied into heavy resistance forest (5000-5500 layers). Meanwhile wanjikus piled in... Ai caramba!
Since Sept 22nd when NSE20 closed @5406 the slide has now broken below 5000 handle with the market closing @4910 on Dec 19. The week starting on Dec 15th saw some heavy turnover (heavyweight counters) for 3 days in a row and in the process NSE20 skidded below the 5000 handle since Aug 2014.
Q1 2015 will be critical for the bulls to hold the fort. If not, we're just getting started on the lower lows journey! If mpesa bank fails to break above 15 with aplomb on the next attempt that will be the best signal. Watch out for the banks they're weak. They've been so since Nov 2013 and I've seemed to be a madman as they rallied. If they reverse their 2014 gains, the market will be in a bear...
And lastly USD > KES 90 is a formidable NSE bulls opponent. Weak KES = weak NSE.
Waiting for the golden handcuff tales. Thanks for this analysis @hisah. Your insights, together with that of other members here, have been really helpful. Another observation in line with above analyses, is the drop in 'Plots for sale' threads on here. I remember this was one of your other indicators for a topping/maxing out at the NSE. The harder you work, the luckier you get
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2012 Posts: 5,222
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hisah wrote:littledove wrote:these numbers means alot, but to me they are scaring!
INVESTOR PROFILE AT NSE
Q3 2013
Foreign corporate 40%
foreign individuals 0.6%
local corporate 37%
local individuals 20%
Q3 2014
Foreign corporate 21%
foreign individuals 1%
local corporate 25%
local individuals 52%
@littledove - thanks for this treasure snippet
So both local and foreign institutionals have been on the sellside in 2014 while the market rallied into heavy resistance forest (5000-5500 layers). Meanwhile wanjikus piled in... Ai caramba!
Since Sept 22nd when NSE20 closed @5406 the slide has now broken below 5000 handle with the market closing @4910 on Dec 19. The week starting on Dec 15th saw some heavy turnover (heavyweight counters) for 3 days in a row and in the process NSE20 skidded below the 5000 handle since Aug 2014.
Q1 2015 will be critical for the bulls to hold the fort. If not, we're just getting started on the lower lows journey! If mpesa bank fails to break above 15 with aplomb on the next attempt that will be the best signal. Watch out for the banks they're weak. They've been so since Nov 2013 and I've seemed to be a madman as they rallied. If they reverse their 2014 gains, the market will be in a bear...
And lastly USD > KES 90 is a formidable NSE bulls opponent. Weak KES = weak NSE.
Waiting for the golden handcuff tales. Yes. And it still surprises me when you sing the same song. KCB 20s to 60s na wimbo ni ule ule? Ego? 
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 4/1/2014 Posts: 47
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Mukiri wrote:hisah wrote:littledove wrote:these numbers means alot, but to me they are scaring!
INVESTOR PROFILE AT NSE
Q3 2013
Foreign corporate 40%
foreign individuals 0.6%
local corporate 37%
local individuals 20%
Q3 2014
Foreign corporate 21%
foreign individuals 1%
local corporate 25%
local individuals 52%
@littledove - thanks for this treasure snippet
So both local and foreign institutionals have been on the sellside in 2014 while the market rallied into heavy resistance forest (5000-5500 layers). Meanwhile wanjikus piled in... Ai caramba!
Since Sept 22nd when NSE20 closed @5406 the slide has now broken below 5000 handle with the market closing @4910 on Dec 19. The week starting on Dec 15th saw some heavy turnover (heavyweight counters) for 3 days in a row and in the process NSE20 skidded below the 5000 handle since Aug 2014.
Q1 2015 will be critical for the bulls to hold the fort. If not, we're just getting started on the lower lows journey! If mpesa bank fails to break above 15 with aplomb on the next attempt that will be the best signal. Watch out for the banks they're weak. They've been so since Nov 2013 and I've seemed to be a madman as they rallied. If they reverse their 2014 gains, the market will be in a bear...
And lastly USD > KES 90 is a formidable NSE bulls opponent. Weak KES = weak NSE.
Waiting for the golden handcuff tales. Yes. And it still surprises me when you sing the same song. KCB 20s to 60s na wimbo ni ule ule? Ego? The bear will only come when least expected.you can't be saying the same over one year while as money has been made and will continue to be made.hiyo ni porojo tupu.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,702 Location: NAIROBI
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Scan group trading 17.3mn shares today.Significant number of shares and close to 6% of the total issued shares. A major investor in the works Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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@Mukiri - I don't remember KCB @20s back in Nov 2013. Banks have been toppish since Nov 2013 and I stick with this argument, so don't be surprised by my stand. I just trade the charts (techs and fundies). It has nothing to do with ego and I wonder where this accusation is coming from. Once in a while some calls may fail to come by as expected since prediction outcomes are never 100% when a market is in a period of irrational exuberance. But eventually the madness fades and the market resets to normal levels. I will continue betting against the crowd until the charts revert their patterns. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2012 Posts: 5,222
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hisah wrote:@Mukiri - I don't remember KCB @20s back in Nov 2013. Banks have been toppish since Nov 2013 and I stick with this argument, so don't be surprised by my stand. I just trade the charts (techs and fundies). It has nothing to do with ego and I wonder where this accusation is coming from. Once in a while some calls may fail to come by as expected since prediction outcomes are never 100% when a market is in a period of irrational exuberance. But eventually the madness fades and the market resets to normal levels.
I will continue betting against the crowd until the charts revert their patterns. Okei mkubwa. No hard feelings. I have made money from some of your predictions, but this one! In my books... you failed completely. Even if there's, as you'd predicted, a 30% correction, it would not get to -Nov '13 prices. However, time will tell.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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@mukiri. don't shoot the messenger. especially when the predictions are just starting to become true. the actions of late all point to a very red nse in 2015, use the predictions wisely instead of fighting them. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2012 Posts: 5,222
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Aguytrying wrote:@mukiri. don't shoot the messenger. especially when the predictions are just starting to become true. the actions of late all point to a very red nse in 2015, use the predictions wisely instead of fighting them. Okei.
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Rank: Member Joined: 6/10/2006 Posts: 201 Location: Nairobi
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I tend to think the market is just correcting because of capital outflows by foreign investors and those in general who are spooked by CGT. However 2015 will still be a Bull Market primarily because lower fuel prices will translate into a boost for the economy...my 2 cents
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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Aguytrying wrote:@mukiri. don't shoot the messenger. especially when the predictions are just starting to become true. the actions of late all point to a very red nse in 2015, use the predictions wisely instead of fighting them. Markets fall every year at this time due to inactivity... It has no bearing on the following year though! Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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hisah wrote:@Mukiri - I don't remember KCB @20s back in Nov 2013. Banks have been toppish since Nov 2013 and I stick with this argument, so don't be surprised by my stand. I just trade the charts (techs and fundies). It has nothing to do with ego and I wonder where this accusation is coming from. Once in a while some calls may fail to come by as expected since prediction outcomes are never 100% when a market is in a period of irrational exuberance. But eventually the madness fades and the market resets to normal levels.
I will continue betting against the crowd until the charts revert their patterns. @hisah I do remember KCB at 17bob in 2013 so guys have made a killing on these! Unfortunately I had to sell all the banks I own when I converted religions.. Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,121 Location: Nairobi
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guru267 wrote:hisah wrote:@Mukiri - I don't remember KCB @20s back in Nov 2013. Banks have been toppish since Nov 2013 and I stick with this argument, so don't be surprised by my stand. I just trade the charts (techs and fundies). It has nothing to do with ego and I wonder where this accusation is coming from. Once in a while some calls may fail to come by as expected since prediction outcomes are never 100% when a market is in a period of irrational exuberance. But eventually the madness fades and the market resets to normal levels.
I will continue betting against the crowd until the charts revert their patterns. @hisah I do remember KCB at 17bob in 2013 so guys have made a killing on these! Unfortunately I had to sell all the banks I own when I converted religions.. Why 'unfortunately'? You made a life choice/decision. Are you regretting it? And which religion doesn't allow you to own shares in a bank? Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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VituVingiSana wrote:guru267 wrote:hisah wrote:@Mukiri - I don't remember KCB @20s back in Nov 2013. Banks have been toppish since Nov 2013 and I stick with this argument, so don't be surprised by my stand. I just trade the charts (techs and fundies). It has nothing to do with ego and I wonder where this accusation is coming from. Once in a while some calls may fail to come by as expected since prediction outcomes are never 100% when a market is in a period of irrational exuberance. But eventually the madness fades and the market resets to normal levels.
I will continue betting against the crowd until the charts revert their patterns. @hisah I do remember KCB at 17bob in 2013 so guys have made a killing on these! Unfortunately I had to sell all the banks I own when I converted religions.. Why 'unfortunately'? You made a life choice/decision. Are you regretting it? And which religion doesn't allow you to own shares in a bank? Islam does not allow one to benefit from interest income... None of the listed banks are Sharia compliant! It was a tough choice but a right one! Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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