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East Africa's largest economy?
Murira Ikihia
#41 Posted : Friday, February 07, 2014 6:55:10 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 12/1/2010
Posts: 57
Location: Nairobi
I think some people put too much stock on the views by journalists on regional economic performance, causes and prospects. In my opinion, many of those views are shaped by either having an axe to grind, a political agenda or what sells. Let me share some home truths with those who seem to have swallowed some PR stories on how bright the conditions of Ethiopia and Tanzania are. I have undertaken at least four month in-country research in each of these states. During the cold war, these two countries had socialist leanings - they both nationalized land. The two countries are therefore late comers in the market economy but with land still as the most mishandled resource - in my opinion the case of Ethiopia will take many generations to resolve. Tanzania may not sought it out in a hurry either because of the large mineral wealth - with transparency issues. Kenya is light years ahead on this crucial issue despite obvious gaps in fact we are ranked second after South Africa in Africa in terms of land registration and title deeds. We may quarrel and scratch but there is progress.

The quickest source of economic growth is from exploiting natural resources. @Kiash has hit the nail on the head in regard to Ethiopia. They are dishing out some of the best prime land to agro-industries but there are serious grievances from the group whose land was nationalized. Remember these guys were never colonized so these groups had held their holdings for hundreds of years. While landlessness is not a big issue, poverty is well and thoroughly entrenched. The exchange rate is controlled and that means access to foreign exchange - agro-industries use this carrot to acquire prime land - in main water towers and close to the main transport arteries but exclusively for export products. Its a nightmare if you are a local to just get the necessary permits even for modest developments.

Our brothers in Tanzania may have succeeded to bottle the toxic tribal rhetoric, that I see so often in Kenya but they are also sitting on a powder keg. In their case, abundant natural resources and their skewed benefits and burden will be their undoing especially when the education system is so messed up. I have great respect for the community spirit that I have seen especially in the villages but there are large doses of ignorance, scepticism and growing mistrust of the elite. Natural resources will eventually run out but without investment in proper education for the majority, they will not be able to grow the service economy.

Kenya may not yet be where we should be, but we are moving there and for those of us with some years we know we have come from far. In short to sustain long term growth, you have to tackle allocative issues, provide opportunities for social advancement and move more towards a greater service economy. That's it.
murchr
#42 Posted : Friday, February 07, 2014 7:46:37 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
And what advantage is there in hoarding land or worse still subdiving land into small pieces that end up being unproductive? -Read Kisii...Id rather the land is leased for x number of years as long as the revenue is shared with the govt and the locals are employed. Wanjiku holding land for 5 years waiting to sell it at at a higher price will not help the economy. The growth of an economy is brought about when you sell more of what you produce. Were it not for tea, flowers and tourism we'd be a poor country.

Murira I guess you dint notice the car assemblies that the Chinese have in Ethiopia

"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
simonkabz
#43 Posted : Friday, February 07, 2014 11:05:29 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 3/2/2007
Posts: 8,776
Location: Cameroon
Murira that's quite deep stuff. I recognize Moi for ensuring education withstood the great error.

I'm encouraged by the fact that we aint just sitting pretty.
TULIA.........UFUNZWE!
murchr
#44 Posted : Thursday, March 13, 2014 3:43:23 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
In pictures...this is what makes Ethiopia better than Kenya




"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
Murira Ikihia
#45 Posted : Thursday, March 13, 2014 7:03:43 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 12/1/2010
Posts: 57
Location: Nairobi
I could also add that the Ethiopian coffee industry larger and growing by far than in Kenya. This is because Ethiopians consume mostly black coffee at the individual household. But lets get some things clear. Ethiopian Airline has been around since 1948 when Kenya was been plugged into the most toxic phase of colonialism. They have had an aircraft simulator for decades mostly for their airforce and Kenyan pilots have also been trained there. Well KQ got theirs a couple of years ago and so that is history. By the way the jet fighter that UK is being shown above is a soviet era MiG. I have no comment on its capability but I can say that the technology is decades old. Finally, let me comment on the leather industry. I agree, this is larger better organized and more lucrative than our pathetic Kenyan case. However, I will never forget the mountain of bones outside the main Addis Ababa slaughter house - must be a couple of a thousand tonnes - which is an eloquent testament that the animal feeds industry is non-existent. What this short analysis suggests is that Ethiopia has flashes of brilliance in some sectors that we can learn from but they are scattered and far in between and need to be integrated into the whole to make a difference. By the way, I highly appreciate this thawing of relations with our 87m strong population Northern neighbour because in the long run, this is a huge untapped market for almost anything that the Kenya industry can produce. For instance, did you know that there is only one insurance company - with government as the major shareholder in Ethiopia just like the banking sector? We therefore should encourage openness because it will be mutually beneficial.
masukuma
#46 Posted : Thursday, March 13, 2014 8:01:27 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/4/2006
Posts: 13,821
Location: Nairobi
so.... Tokyo's GDP in 2007 was estimated to be 1.9 trillion dollars! on the other hand Africa's collective GDP in 2011 was 1.88 trillion dollars. This whole debate is about the taller dwarf!! Ethiopia is a taller dwarf! but we are all dwarfs!!
All Mushrooms are edible! Some Mushroom are only edible ONCE!
Alba
#47 Posted : Thursday, March 13, 2014 6:16:01 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/27/2012
Posts: 2,256
Location: Bandalungwa
masukuma wrote:
so.... Tokyo's GDP in 2007 was estimated to be 1.9 trillion dollars! on the other hand Africa's collective GDP in 2011 was 1.88 trillion dollars. This whole debate is about the taller dwarf!! Ethiopia is a taller dwarf! but we are all dwarfs!!


But comparing Kenya to Japan is pointless. Kenya is in competition with Ethiopia not Japan. If a potential investor wants to invest in East Africa, he has to choose between Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda or Tanzania. This is whom Kenyans have to compete with. So Kenya should strive to provide a better investment climate than Ethiopia. The comparison is appropriate.
murchr
#48 Posted : Thursday, March 13, 2014 6:29:17 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
masukuma wrote:
so.... Tokyo's GDP in 2007 was estimated to be 1.9 trillion dollars! on the other hand Africa's collective GDP in 2011 was 1.88 trillion dollars. This whole debate is about the taller dwarf!! Ethiopia is a taller dwarf! but we are all dwarfs!!


No doubt we're all dwarfs but its good to point out the reality. We are blinded by thinking that we are the best and hence we need a strong challenger. Not UG Tz or Rw but ET. We have a close to non-existent leather industry yet it is in this country where we have the real carnivores. We wear shoes, belts, leather jackets, we have a middo crass that is obsessed with revamping classic cars so read car leather seats, furniture that may require leather...so what stops us? Mitumba?

Ethiopia sells its coffee directly to starbucks...yetu am glad i read somewhere that farmers are following suit.

We are becoming complacent we need to get out of our shells

@murira...those planes however old they are, they are giving those Ethiopians a wealth of knowledge - reverse engineering.
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
masukuma
#49 Posted : Thursday, March 13, 2014 7:12:17 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/4/2006
Posts: 13,821
Location: Nairobi
Alba wrote:
masukuma wrote:
so.... Tokyo's GDP in 2007 was estimated to be 1.9 trillion dollars! on the other hand Africa's collective GDP in 2011 was 1.88 trillion dollars. This whole debate is about the taller dwarf!! Ethiopia is a taller dwarf! but we are all dwarfs!!


But comparing Kenya to Japan is pointless. Kenya is in competition with Ethiopia not Japan. If a potential investor wants to invest in East Africa, he has to choose between Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda or Tanzania. This is whom Kenyans have to compete with. So Kenya should strive to provide a better investment climate than Ethiopia. The comparison is appropriate.

I am not comparing Japan to Kenya... I am comparing a CITY to A CONTINENT... the second largest continent by size and population! and regrettably the city comes out shining.
All Mushrooms are edible! Some Mushroom are only edible ONCE!
Alba
#50 Posted : Thursday, March 13, 2014 8:55:36 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/27/2012
Posts: 2,256
Location: Bandalungwa
My take is we should just focus on Kenya and not the whole continent. Find out why Ethiopia passed Kenya. To me tribalism and corruption are the main reasons.

We had 10 wasted years under Kibaki. It is during his reign that Ethiopia passed Kenya. He did nothing to address corruption, crime, tribalism or unemployment.

Note that when Kibaki took over, the unemployment rate was 40%. When he left it was still 40%. Corruption stayed the same under his reign or may have risen. Crime spiralled out of control. Tribalism spiked to the point of being toxic. I never once saw Kibaki take appropriate action to address these issues. Thats why I say it was 10 wasted years.

If Kenyans want to understand why Ethiopia passed Kenya, start by looking at our leaders. They are the main reason for stagnation. And Kenyans penchant for tribal voting just emboldens the leaders. So if you feel besieged by crime, you can thank tribal voting for that. If Kenyans voted on issues, things would be different.

We can never have an Egypt style revolution to remove incompetent leaders because people will support the leader if he happens to be from their ethnic group. Our tribalism is so toxic that we cant even come together to challenge MPs for raising their salaries. If a tribal chief calls a political rally, thousands show up. If an NGO calls a rally protest high MP salaries, only a few dozen show up. Ghitu ghani hii ?

No wonder the govt now says the wage bill is hindering development.
murchr
#51 Posted : Thursday, March 13, 2014 10:16:32 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
Alba wrote:
My take is we should just focus on Kenya and not the whole continent. Find out why Ethiopia passed Kenya. To me tribalism and corruption are the main reasons.

We had 10 wasted years under Kibaki. It is during his reign that Ethiopia passed Kenya. He did nothing to address corruption, crime, tribalism or unemployment.

Note that when Kibaki took over, the unemployment rate was 40%. When he left it was still 40%. Corruption stayed the same under his reign or may have risen. Crime spiralled out of control. Tribalism spiked to the point of being toxic. I never once saw Kibaki take appropriate action to address these issues. Thats why I say it was 10 wasted years.

If Kenyans want to understand why Ethiopia passed Kenya, start by looking at our leaders. They are the main reason for stagnation. And Kenyans penchant for tribal voting just emboldens the leaders. So if you feel besieged by crime, you can thank tribal voting for that. If Kenyans voted on issues, things would be different.

We can never have an Egypt style revolution to remove incompetent leaders because people will support the leader if he happens to be from their ethnic group. Our tribalism is so toxic that we cant even come together to challenge MPs for raising their salaries. If a tribal chief calls a political rally, thousands show up. If an NGO calls a rally protest high MP salaries, only a few dozen show up. Ghitu ghani hii ?

No wonder the govt now says the wage bill is hindering development.



It was in Kibaki's years that fallen govt entities were revived, the likes of KCC and infrastructure was repaired, seems you've forgotten Moi days when the economy was "growing" in the the negatives.. but its ok. This is not about politricks but economy.

We have to pick up from where Kibaki left, revive the Tanning Industry, the clothing industry the likes of Rivatex, Kicomi etc
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
kollabo
#52 Posted : Friday, March 14, 2014 9:30:09 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 2/3/2012
Posts: 1,317
Alba wrote:
My take is we should just focus on Kenya and not the whole continent. Find out why Ethiopia passed Kenya. To me tribalism and corruption are the main reasons.

We had 10 wasted years under Kibaki. It is during his reign that Ethiopia passed Kenya. He did nothing to address corruption, crime, tribalism or unemployment.

Note that when Kibaki took over, the unemployment rate was 40%. When he left it was still 40%. Corruption stayed the same under his reign or may have risen. Crime spiralled out of control. Tribalism spiked to the point of being toxic. I never once saw Kibaki take appropriate action to address these issues. Thats why I say it was 10 wasted years.

If Kenyans want to understand why Ethiopia passed Kenya, start by looking at our leaders. They are the main reason for stagnation. And Kenyans penchant for tribal voting just emboldens the leaders. So if you feel besieged by crime, you can thank tribal voting for that. If Kenyans voted on issues, things would be different.

We can never have an Egypt style revolution to remove incompetent leaders because people will support the leader if he happens to be from their ethnic group. Our tribalism is so toxic that we cant even come together to challenge MPs for raising their salaries. If a tribal chief calls a political rally, thousands show up. If an NGO calls a rally protest high MP salaries, only a few dozen show up. Ghitu ghani hii ?

No wonder the govt now says the wage bill is hindering development.


Well said @Alba. Kibaki's 10 years were a complete waste.
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#53 Posted : Friday, March 14, 2014 11:34:06 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,221
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
Alba wrote:
My take is we should just focus on Kenya and not the whole continent. Find out why Ethiopia passed Kenya. To me tribalism and corruption are the main reasons.

We had 10 wasted years under Kibaki. It is during his reign that Ethiopia passed Kenya. He did nothing to address corruption, crime, tribalism or unemployment.

Note that when Kibaki took over, the unemployment rate was 40%. When he left it was still 40%. Corruption stayed the same under his reign or may have risen. Crime spiralled out of control. Tribalism spiked to the point of being toxic. I never once saw Kibaki take appropriate action to address these issues. Thats why I say it was 10 wasted years.

If Kenyans want to understand why Ethiopia passed Kenya, start by looking at our leaders. They are the main reason for stagnation. And Kenyans penchant for tribal voting just emboldens the leaders. So if you feel besieged by crime, you can thank tribal voting for that. If Kenyans voted on issues, things would be different.

We can never have an Egypt style revolution to remove incompetent leaders because people will support the leader if he happens to be from their ethnic group. Our tribalism is so toxic that we cant even come together to challenge MPs for raising their salaries. If a tribal chief calls a political rally, thousands show up. If an NGO calls a rally protest high MP salaries, only a few dozen show up. Ghitu ghani hii ?

No wonder the govt now says the wage bill is hindering development.

True. There were no freebies. It was really tough for the 'tunaomba sirkal type.'
@SufficientlyP
Fyatu
#54 Posted : Friday, March 14, 2014 12:45:15 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 1/20/2011
Posts: 1,820
Location: Nakuru
Alba wrote:
murchr wrote:
Alba wrote:
Tribalism is finishing the country. Kenya had 10 wasted years under Kibaki in which the economy grew at a paltry 4% while all the neighbours grew at kitu 7%. If tribalism was insignificant like it is in Tanzania or even Uganda, we would have highly competent presidential candidates even as far back as 1963. But we still dont learn.

As someone has said above, Tanzania will pass Kenya during our lifetimes because even 20 years from now, Kenya will still be a tribal society.


Kenya's best years were under Kibaki what are you telling us? U think growing an economy from a (-) to +7% is as easy as taking a flight of stairs? Our wasted years were in the 90s the years of (-) growth.


Kenya's GDP growth grew at a much slower rate than all the neighbors. That is the point of this thread. Countries like Ethiopia , Rwanda , Mozambique also had negative growth then went to growth rates of almost 10%

I say wasted years because Kibaki really had a good opportunity and a lot of goodwill to rectify the Nyayo error : In 2002, virtually the whole country was united behind Kibaki. No kenyan President has ever been elected with as much goodwill as Kibaki was in 2002.

But he wasted the opportunity to fight tribalism and deal with corruption. Instead of continuing the spirit of Unity that got him elected in 2002, he went back to his tribal cocoon and once again the country was split along tribal lines.

The 1990s were not just wasted years. Those were years of suffocation.


7% could have been sustained had baba Lupita not coined the slogan "NO RAILA NO PEACE"
Dumb money becomes dumb only when it listens to smart money
kryptonite
#55 Posted : Friday, March 14, 2014 4:23:43 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/1/2010
Posts: 272
Location: Nairobi
Murira Ikihia wrote:
I could also add that the Ethiopian coffee industry larger and growing by far than in Kenya. This is because Ethiopians consume mostly black coffee at the individual household. But lets get some things clear. Ethiopian Airline has been around since 1948 when Kenya was been plugged into the most toxic phase of colonialism. They have had an aircraft simulator for decades mostly for their airforce and Kenyan pilots have also been trained there. Well KQ got theirs a couple of years ago and so that is history. By the way the jet fighter that UK is being shown above is a soviet era MiG. I have no comment on its capability but I can say that the technology is decades old. Finally, let me comment on the leather industry. I agree, this is larger better organized and more lucrative than our pathetic Kenyan case. However, I will never forget the mountain of bones outside the main Addis Ababa slaughter house - must be a couple of a thousand tonnes - which is an eloquent testament that the animal feeds industry is non-existent. What this short analysis suggests is that Ethiopia has flashes of brilliance in some sectors that we can learn from but they are scattered and far in between and need to be integrated into the whole to make a difference. By the way, I highly appreciate this thawing of relations with our 87m strong population Northern neighbour because in the long run, this is a huge untapped market for almost anything that the Kenya industry can produce. For instance, did you know that there is only one insurance company - with government as the major shareholder in Ethiopia just like the banking sector? We therefore should encourage openness because it will be mutually beneficial.


Best summary of the situation/comparison. Also balance of trade is tilted in our favour so far.
The harder you work, the luckier you get
simonkabz
#56 Posted : Sunday, June 08, 2014 4:20:59 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 3/2/2007
Posts: 8,776
Location: Cameroon

The Ethiopian SGR is right on course.....compare this with the kind of political temperatures ours has generated Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly


The city light rail is nearing completion(below), and the brand new engines are on ground(above)!



The GERD is nearing 40% completion, and the Egyptians have thrown in the towel!

..............as we await the Great StormLaughing out loudly Laughing out loudly

TULIA.........UFUNZWE!
simonkabz
#57 Posted : Sunday, June 08, 2014 4:33:19 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 3/2/2007
Posts: 8,776
Location: Cameroon

Futuristic, for a city that has no traffic jam.
TULIA.........UFUNZWE!
murchr
#58 Posted : Sunday, June 08, 2014 5:33:38 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
Another example that demoncracy is what slows Africa down. As for those who were waiting for a that "water war" washindwe, Sisi is going to Ethiopia, and given that those Naive Muslim Brothers were caught on camera plotting to cause rifts in Ethiopia, he has alot of PR to do.
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
arkard
#59 Posted : Sunday, June 08, 2014 8:02:24 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 9/24/2012
Posts: 63
If we continue with the kind of political bickering going around, Kenya itabaki kusema 'That Used to Be Us'. Think of what Kenya accoplished from 2003-2007 and 1 month conflict which we are yet to recover from.
Above all, guard your heart, for it is the wellspring of life.
simonkabz
#60 Posted : Sunday, June 08, 2014 10:15:43 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 3/2/2007
Posts: 8,776
Location: Cameroon




Their 80km tolled Addis Ababa - Adama Expressway (superhighway) inaugurated in May.
TULIA.........UFUNZWE!
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