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Kenya Stocks Quite Cheap
mchambuzi
#41 Posted : Sunday, January 12, 2014 1:06:17 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 11/17/2013
Posts: 80
Location: Juja
The share actually picked up the most 2013, optimism from investor I think
On a long enough timeline, the life expectancy of everyone drops to zero.
Cde Monomotapa
#42 Posted : Sunday, January 12, 2014 1:17:51 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
mchambuzi wrote:
The share actually picked up the most 2013, optimism from investor I think


OK. Good. At USD12.8 = KES.1,100/share. Back to the topic of the day it appears then, "Price is what you pay, Value is what you get". Then the further question ought to be, what's the Value of buying at a certain Price?
murchr
#43 Posted : Sunday, January 12, 2014 1:36:22 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
Well done @urstill let me try explain the way i understand it in its simplest form.

PE - Price to Earnings ratio - A valuation ratio of a company's current share price compared to its per-share earnings. Calculated by Market value per share/EPS<--(Earnings per share)

(eg KENRE market value = 16.15 (as of friday)/ 4 gives u a PE of 4)

WHAT DOES IT SHOW?
1. How cheap or expensive a stock is. A low PE is mostly desirable
2. It has the ability to explain long-term return potential of a stock.
3. It is the number of times the share of a company is priced in the stock market compared with its earnings, or in other words the amount of shillings the market is willing to pay for 1 shilling of the company's earnings

DETERMINANTS:
1. Expected growth rate - a high PE at times is attributed to the expected growth rate of business in the future a good eg is Safcom When the estimated EPS is higher, the forward PE is lower compared to the current PE so when Mr Market realizes this the price of a stock goes up.

2. Current and future risk - Companies perceived as risky usually trade at lower PE ratios, as the market expects fluctuations in their operating incomes. (A good eg is KENRE everyone thinks business will take a dip because of insurance claims -> westgate and airport) Mr Market doesn't like risk and uncertainty.

3 Current and future investment needs - P/E ratio is also affected by the reinvestment need and requirements of a company/business. A company with higher reinvestment needs is considered risky eg. Kengen.

There are 2 types of PEs trailing and forward. Trailing - last years results, fwd - futuristic. Its forward PE that should make sense to an investor. A value investor opts for a low PE but its not always desirable, one should consider the industry too. A good number of stocks with low PE are perceived to have little opportunity for earnings.

Ni hayo tu now crunch the numbers
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
mchambuzi
#44 Posted : Sunday, January 12, 2014 1:51:16 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 11/17/2013
Posts: 80
Location: Juja
Quote:
Some key things to Consider About P/E

1. It is best to compare P/E ratios within a specific industry. This helps ensure the price-earnings performance is not simply a product of the stock's environment.

2. Be wary of stocks sporting high P/E ratios during an economic boom. The old saying that a "rising tide lifts all boats" definitely applies to stocks - even many bad ones - so it's wise to be suspicious of any upward price movement that isn't supported by some logical, underlying reason outside of the general economic climate.

3. Be equally dubious of stocks with low P/E ratios that appear to be waning in prestige or relevance. In recent years, investors have seen a number of formerly solid companies hit the skids. In these instances, it's foolish to think the price will magically increase to match the earnings and boost the stock's P/E ratio to a level consistent with the industry norm. It is far more likely that any P/E increase will be the direct result of eroding earnings, which isn't the P/E "bounce" bullish investors are looking for.

The Bottom Line
While investors are probably wise to be wary of P/E ratios, it is equally prudent to keep that apprehension in context. While P/E ratios are not the magical prognostic tool some once thought they were, they can still be valuable when used in the proper manner. Remember to compare P/E ratios within a single industry, and while a particularly high or low ratio may not spell disaster, it is a sign worth considering.
Quote:


Sums it up the way I was thinking about it smile
On a long enough timeline, the life expectancy of everyone drops to zero.
Aguytrying
#45 Posted : Sunday, January 12, 2014 7:51:00 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
@realtreaty.

"price is what you pay, value is what you get"

tafakari hayo
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
urstill1
#46 Posted : Sunday, January 12, 2014 7:57:41 AM
Rank: User


Joined: 9/6/2013
Posts: 1,446
Location: In a house
[quote=Cde Monomotapa]As a btw, there is something peculiar about BAT Zim too. In 2009 it was at USD1.75, on Friday USD12.8. Up 255% YOY. What's up, not very sure... http://www.zimbabwe-stoc...com/listed-company/BAT/[/quote]

I have been following ZSE closely since March last year. It is this stock that attracted me to that market. I opened an account with a broker, they wanted $5k for the first single trade on a single counter, though I bargained to $3k. Since my bargain, was easily accepted I retreated and just followed the market online.
As for BAT Zim, if you look keenly, BAT is the largest leaf processor in Zimbabwe. Not forgetting that Zimbabwe is one of the world's largest tobacco leaf producers and exporters. The rest played in the market after the goo old comrade cooled down.
MaichBlack
#47 Posted : Sunday, January 12, 2014 8:59:05 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,460
@Realtreaty - When you go to the market, do you ask for the 'cheapest' tomatoes, mangos etc. When you walk into Bata do you ask for the 'cheapest' shoes? When you walk into an electronics shop, do you ask for the 'cheapest' tv, phone, radio etc. Better yet, when you walk into a supermarket, do you buy 8 quarter kg packets of cooking fat as opposed to a 2kg because the quarter kg's are 'cheaper'? What about when you are buying a car, spare parts, getting your kids a new school etc.?

Tafakari hayo!

Cost and value don't mean the same thing even to wanjiku!

What is the cost of education?
What is the value of education?
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
dunkang
#48 Posted : Sunday, January 12, 2014 9:41:39 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2011
Posts: 4,818
Location: -1.2107, 36.8831
Critical ratios to lookout for when comparing stocks prices;

1. Price-Earnings Ratio (P/E):
This number tells you the worth of profits you’re paying for a stock and you calculate it by dividing earnings per share by the stock price. The lower the P/E the better. The most frequently used earnings number in the calculation is the total earnings per share over the past four reported quarters.

Benjamin Graham, the legendary investor and Warren Buffett’s teacher at Columbia University, postulated that stocks should trade for a P/E multiple equal to 8.5 times earnings plus two times the growth rate of earnings.

2. Price/Earnings Growth (PEG) Ratio:
The PEG ratio is another Benjamin Graham invention which attempts to measure the degree of a discount or premium you’re paying for growth. The calculation is to divide the P/E ratio by the long-term annualized percentage growth rate of earnings, ideally the next five years’ worth. A result of less than 1.0 implies that the market is not fully valuing the prospects for future growth.

The downside of the PEG ratio is that future growth rates are notoriously hard to predict. Companies’ growth profiles can change, sometimes drastically.

3. Price-to-Sales (P/S) : Similar to the P/E ratio, it divides stock price by total sales over the past year. Popularized by investment manager and longtime Forbes columnist, Ken Fisher, the price-sales ratio tells you how much you are paying for every coin in annual sales.

Because there are times when cyclical companies have no earnings, the price-sales multiple can be a better indicator of a company’s relative value than the P/E.

4. Price/Cash Flow (P/CF):
This useful measure of value is obtained by dividing the market value by operating cash flow. It strips out items like amortization and depreciation from earnings and focuses on cash generated by the business. This provides a better way than P/E for comparing valuations of companies from different countries that have different depreciation rules that can affect earnings.

Lower readings are preferable but keep in mind that there is more to cash flow than what comes from operations. Free cash flow is what’s left over after paying down debt, buying back stock and paying dividends. Negative free cash flow is forgivable as long it’s not a chronic problem, but companies that cannot produce positive cash flow from their core business operations can face eventual liquidity and solvency issues.

5. Price-To-Book Value (P/BV):
This ratio tells you how much you’re paying for the assets owned by the company, and you calculate it by dividing the market capitalization by the difference between total assets and total liabilities. The idea is to approximate how much money you could put your hands on if you shut down the business and sold off everything. As with most price multiple metrics, price-to-book is best used by comparing present multiples to historical averages.

6. Debt Equity Ratio

7. Return on Equity (ROE)
ROE measures a company’s efficiency at generating profits from money invested in the company, and it is derived by dividing by net income by shareholder’s equity.

8. Return on Asset (ROA)
Similar to return on equity, ROA is a measure of management effectiveness obtained by dividing net income by total assets. A company with a higher ROA is usually preferable to one with a lower ROA, since it shows the ability to grow profits more efficiently from a given base of assets.

9. Profit Margin
Profit margin shows how much a company earns from each coin of sales and is arrived at by dividing profit by sales. The number you get depends on the kind of profit you choose. Gross profit, which is sales minus cost of sales, is the simplest measure. Operating profit is gross profit less overhead items, and net profit (income) is what’s left after paying taxes.

10. Dividend Payout Ratio

11. Dividend Yield

Extracted from A Forbes.com Article by John Dobosz
Receive with simplicity everything that happens to you.” ― Rashi

Fyatu
#49 Posted : Monday, January 13, 2014 2:15:10 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 1/20/2011
Posts: 1,820
Location: Nakuru
Metasploit wrote:
Realtreaty wrote:
Fyatu wrote:
Realtreaty wrote:
Yes, kenyan stocks are very cheap and reason outsiders are flooding in to buy cheaply and make profit. The more international companies open offices and tradehubs in kenya the more they will buy local companies, turn them upside and make more products and profits. Think why Vodafone still retains the 40% of Safcom and would buy it up to 80% if Govt allowed them. barclays kenya @17-18 Kes if compared to same Barclays stock in USA or UK is just 1/32 but may be making a profit. The Most dear stock in kenya is the BAT at 600 equivalent to $7.50. Compare this with BAT stock in UK and you find its a peanut price at $103. But we still say the price is high. So i would say any stock under 50 Kes is a gift to buy if the company is making a profit every year for now.


The more reason i'm on a buying overdrive of a certain company listed on the NSE. It is here on wazua that people were shouting from on top of hills that Britank was overpriced at kshs.9

@Fyatu...I think I was the same human who brought about the good tidings of Britam and I was skinned same they are doing here now.....Oh lord forgive them , they did not know what they were to miss when it is now @16 from 7.50.


Realty..stop lying.it was hisah who gave the up nod for Britam way back at 7.50-8 levels.some of us bought,booked profits and moved on to other counters.
#traders


@Metasploit and @Realtreaty, i agree that quantitative measures and formulas of assessing how cheap or expensive a stock is are important, but as someone pointed out ealier it all depends on whether you are in for trading or for the long haul. My advise to young wazuans, especially the ones in their early-mid or even late 20's and early 30's who are interested in stocks should always have a long-term outlook. Surprisingly it is at this age group that one view's say ten years to be eons. There is no denying that Kenya and other African countries are in for some serious development(infrastructure) and hence Kengen at 11bab seems so cheap for someone looking to weka pesa somewhere for the next 10-20 years. I advice young jamaas to go slow on Jameson/blankets and wine trappings and start mopping this "affordable" stocks guided by the philosophy that the next madness ( the first madness was mobile phone uptake) is electricity uptake. Everywhere i go i see nice houses being developed, schools coming up, dairy factories in ocha coming up....all this require electricity. while we are wasting time debating on fundamentals (TA etc...no offence to @hisah...i find TA to be quite useful myself)other people are busty mopping loose pieces at NSE, while others are positioning themselves to fision2030....#mypenimbili
Dumb money becomes dumb only when it listens to smart money
Realtreaty
#50 Posted : Monday, January 13, 2014 9:44:39 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 8/16/2011
Posts: 2,297
Fyatu wrote:
Metasploit wrote:
Realtreaty wrote:
Fyatu wrote:
Realtreaty wrote:
Yes, kenyan stocks are very cheap and reason outsiders are flooding in to buy cheaply and make profit. The more international companies open offices and tradehubs in kenya the more they will buy local companies, turn them upside and make more products and profits. Think why Vodafone still retains the 40% of Safcom and would buy it up to 80% if Govt allowed them. barclays kenya @17-18 Kes if compared to same Barclays stock in USA or UK is just 1/32 but may be making a profit. The Most dear stock in kenya is the BAT at 600 equivalent to $7.50. Compare this with BAT stock in UK and you find its a peanut price at $103. But we still say the price is high. So i would say any stock under 50 Kes is a gift to buy if the company is making a profit every year for now.


The more reason i'm on a buying overdrive of a certain company listed on the NSE. It is here on wazua that people were shouting from on top of hills that Britank was overpriced at kshs.9

@Fyatu...I think I was the same human who brought about the good tidings of Britam and I was skinned same they are doing here now.....Oh lord forgive them , they did not know what they were to miss when it is now @16 from 7.50.


Realty..stop lying.it was hisah who gave the up nod for Britam way back at 7.50-8 levels.some of us bought,booked profits and moved on to other counters.
#traders


@Metasploit and @Realtreaty, i agree that quantitative measures and formulas of assessing how cheap or expensive a stock is are important, but as someone pointed out ealier it all depends on whether you are in for trading or for the long haul. My advise to young wazuans, especially the ones in their early-mid or even late 20's and early 30's who are interested in stocks should always have a long-term outlook. Surprisingly it is at this age group that one view's say ten years to be eons. There is no denying that Kenya and other African countries are in for some serious development(infrastructure) and hence Kengen at 11bab seems so cheap for someone looking to weka pesa somewhere for the next 10-20 years. I advice young jamaas to go slow on Jameson/blankets and wine trappings and start mopping this "affordable" stocks guided by the philosophy that the next madness ( the first madness was mobile phone uptake) is electricity uptake. Everywhere i go i see nice houses being developed, schools coming up, dairy factories in ocha coming up....all this require electricity. while we are wasting time debating on fundamentals (TA etc...no offence to @hisah...i find TA to be quite useful myself)other people are busty mopping loose pieces at NSE, while others are positioning themselves to fision2030....#mypenimbili

@Metaspoilt, this is what your Hisah wrote in Dec 21, 2011....quote.."Correction - Institutional investors aka the big money mboiz - both foreign and local avoided this thing like a plague. You should do so too... Let them announce their carcass results then see if you can use the bones to boil some soup rally... As long as they duped wanjiku in an overly priced IPO, that says a lot about it as a firm. Also the use of the IPO proceeds to pay off some loan was a bad as any red flag gets. But at sub 4, you can buy some for a relief rally then sell at 6."
So I have nothing to hide and to say that on Britam/Britak and Centum, I actually on top
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