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My Picks for 2014
Rank: Member Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 830
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sparkly wrote:S.Mutaga III wrote:Aguytrying wrote:@smutaga. congrats on your achievements so far.
how have you determined that longhorn and liberty are undervalued. are you working with any net asset value figures? My valuation method is purely on P/E because they both have single digit P/E's. I would not use the NAV to value securities that are not distressed. NAV to me only makes sense when valuing distressed securities such as Mumias because they have a high chance of liquidation and hence you would like to know what you will get in case of such an event. For a security that is not in distress, I use P/E because all I care about is the return on investment I expect from the security, not the assets the company has. Some companies have very expensive assets but post meager profits, and therefore using the NAV could be very misleading. Those are my two Ugandan Shillings though, am not an expert in these things. Congrats @SM for the excellent return. Can't comment on the valuation of LH but the company simply doesn't excite me... A company that prints books in this digital age, i am not very optimistic on its longterm. Pan Africa, CFC and HF i belief have good prospects. Selling these and putting the money in LH to me looks like a Zero-sum game. If i were you i would hold cash and wait for discounts on the bluechips, my 2 zim dollars. Sparkly...most of my decisions are usually based on numbers. I believe numbers dont lie. Longhorn may be the most unpopular stock, but if it offers a better return, I will buy. Have a look at this numbers and tell me whether there are many stocks that show better value than this: 2012 FY – (25,949,000) 2013 FY – 93,918,000 2014 HY – Up 78% to 30,155,000 Dividend = Ksh 1.6 for each share held. Dividend yield = 10.67% p/e is around 9. Growth in profits is upwards as hinted by this year's half year results. Anyway, the end justifies the means...as long as we keep making money, the investment strategy is usually subject to personal preference. A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
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Rank: Member Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 830
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The exit from Pan Africa just before the announcement of the half year results may have been spot on. I expect the counter to get a serious beating from tomorrow to sub 100 levels going forward. The redeployment of the money to Longhorn which was trading at around Ksh 15 at the time is already starting to bear fruits with the latest price being Ksh 17 per share. I am however seriously reconsidering to hop back into CFC Stanbic but I am yet to evaluate whether there are better opportunities in the market. For now my holdings are CFC Insurance (Liberty) and Longhorn publishers. I am seriously considering buying CFC Stanbic tomorrow because even at a 10% gain, the price will still be attractive for a long term investor. A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
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Rank: Member Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 830
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My portfolio for the remaining 5 months of 2014 is as follows:- Longhorn (Buying Price)= 15.9 Current Price= 17.0 Return on Investment= 6.9% (ignoring buying expenses) Liberty (Buying Price)= 17.9 Current Price= 17.9 Return on Investment= 0% (ignoring buying expenses) Activity 3: Purchase of CFC Stanbic shares at any price below Ksh 140. I will quote Ksh 140 and buy CFC Stanbic tomorrow to be sure that the trade goes through. I believe that the counter is still undervalued at Ksh 140 per share as a long term investor. Portfolio composition: Longhorn Publishers = 40% (BP @ 15.9) CFC Insurance/ Liberty = 30% (BP @ 17.9) CFC Stanbic Holdings = 30% (BP @ 140) Happy Hunting A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
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Rank: Member Joined: 11/7/2013 Posts: 127 Location: Nairobi, Kenya
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S.Mutaga III wrote:My portfolio for the remaining 5 months of 2014 is as follows:-
Longhorn (Buying Price)= 15.9
Current Price= 17.0
Return on Investment= 6.9% (ignoring buying expenses)
Liberty (Buying Price)= 17.9
Current Price= 17.9
Return on Investment= 0% (ignoring buying expenses)
Activity 3:
Purchase of CFC Stanbic shares at any price below Ksh 140. I will quote Ksh 140 and buy CFC Stanbic tomorrow to be sure that the trade goes through. I believe that the counter is still undervalued at Ksh 140 per share as a long term investor.
Portfolio composition:
Longhorn Publishers = 40% (BP @ 15.9)
CFC Insurance/ Liberty = 30% (BP @ 17.9)
CFC Stanbic Holdings = 30% (BP @ 140)
Happy Hunting Longhorn...don't count your gains too early Pan- Africa style (what with their gains on investment 2013 booking)...it is still oscillating at the 15- 17 level...perhaps when the results are released will touch a new high...but not sustainably...been monitoring for the past few months...forms part of my Portfolio as well (since early year)...Liberty, good call... I went into the (Ferry) industry knowing the same thing I knew with all other businesses I went into- Nothing. Then I built it from there. - Sheldon Adelson (Titans at the Table- Giants of Macau)
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Rank: Member Joined: 2/18/2011 Posts: 448
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Borrowing a leaf from Mutanga the 3rd, i exited pan Africa earlier in the year.Currently betting on KPLC & Kenol Kobil with a 1 year horizon of a gross minimum gain of 60%. KK 8.10 to 13 and KPLC 13 to 21.Anything above the exit price shall be considered a bonus
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Rank: Member Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 830
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Bought CFC Stanbic at Ksh 130 today. My portfolio for the remaining 5 months of 2014 is as follows:- Longhorn (Buying Price)= 15.9 Current Price= 17.0 Return on Investment= 6.9% (ignoring buying expenses) Liberty (Buying Price)= 17.9 Current Price= 17.9 Return on Investment= 0% (ignoring buying expenses) Activity 3: I just bought CFC Stanbic at Ksh 130 today. Its time to focus on other businesses now bearing in mind that I have no extra cash to invest in stocks. I can now sit and wait and maybe come back for a purchase in case I get some more cash from my hustles. Portfolio composition: Longhorn Publishers = 40% (BP @ 15.9) CFC Insurance/ Liberty = 30% (BP @ 17.9) CFC Stanbic Holdings = 30% (BP @ 130) Happy Hunting A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
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Rank: Member Joined: 6/10/2006 Posts: 201 Location: Nairobi
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S.Mutaga III wrote:The exit from Pan Africa just before the announcement of the half year results may have been spot on. I expect the counter to get a serious beating from tomorrow to sub 100 levels going forward. The redeployment of the money to Longhorn which was trading at around Ksh 15 at the time is already starting to bear fruits with the latest price being Ksh 17 per share. I am however seriously reconsidering to hop back into CFC Stanbic but I am yet to evaluate whether there are better opportunities in the market. For now my holdings are CFC Insurance (Liberty) and Longhorn publishers. I am seriously considering buying CFC Stanbic tomorrow because even at a 10% gain, the price will still be attractive for a long term investor. In my opinion Pan Africa is still a buy sub 120...demand still holding strong.
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Rank: Member Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 830
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Longhorn Publishers...the company had stellar HY results recording a 79% jump in profits. However, Q3 results were a slight decline from last year and they issued a dividend when they announced the Q3 results (Fishy). As such, it is clear that the firm had a TERRIBLE third quarter and is unlikely to record any increase in profitability of the FY. I will exit at any price above 16 and redeploy the funds to other counters. A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 7/1/2014 Posts: 903 Location: sky
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S.Mutaga III wrote:Longhorn Publishers...the company had stellar HY results recording a 79% jump in profits. However, Q3 results were a slight decline from last year and they issued a dividend when they announced the Q3 results (Fishy). As such, it is clear that the firm had a TERRIBLE third quarter and is unlikely to record any increase in profitability of the FY. I will exit at any price above 16 and redeploy the funds to other counters. @S.Mutaga dont exit so fast, as i was doing some research on this one i found something very interesting on share holding of Longhorn.kirubi (centum) and francis thombe (chairman) jointly own 70%. This says alot especially when centum is involved. i have put something small to book my space in next cycle portfolio restructuring. This is a space to watch There are only two emotions in the stock market, fear and hope. The problem is, you hope when you should fear and fear when you should hope
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,121 Location: Nairobi
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littledove wrote:S.Mutaga III wrote:Longhorn Publishers...the company had stellar HY results recording a 79% jump in profits. However, Q3 results were a slight decline from last year and they issued a dividend when they announced the Q3 results (Fishy). As such, it is clear that the firm had a TERRIBLE third quarter and is unlikely to record any increase in profitability of the FY. I will exit at any price above 16 and redeploy the funds to other counters. @S.Mutaga dont exit so fast, as i was doing some research on this one i found something very interesting on share holding of Longhorn.kirubi (centum) and francis thombe (chairman) jointly own 70%. This says alot especially when centum is involved. i have put something small to book my space in next cycle portfolio restructuring. This is a space to watch Nyammo? Check out his history. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Member Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 830
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VituVingiSana wrote:littledove wrote:S.Mutaga III wrote:Longhorn Publishers...the company had stellar HY results recording a 79% jump in profits. However, Q3 results were a slight decline from last year and they issued a dividend when they announced the Q3 results (Fishy). As such, it is clear that the firm had a TERRIBLE third quarter and is unlikely to record any increase in profitability of the FY. I will exit at any price above 16 and redeploy the funds to other counters. @S.Mutaga dont exit so fast, as i was doing some research on this one i found something very interesting on share holding of Longhorn.kirubi (centum) and francis thombe (chairman) jointly own 70%. This says alot especially when centum is involved. i have put something small to book my space in next cycle portfolio restructuring. This is a space to watch Nyammo? Check out his history. The numbers say otherwise. There is no way that a company can record a 79% jump in half year profits and a flat Q3 and you convince me that something TERRIBLE did not happen in the third quarter. No matter what the story is, as soon as it hits sweet 16, I am out. A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 7/1/2014 Posts: 903 Location: sky
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littledove wrote:S.Mutaga III wrote:Longhorn Publishers...the company had stellar HY results recording a 79% jump in profits. However, Q3 results were a slight decline from last year and they issued a dividend when they announced the Q3 results (Fishy). As such, it is clear that the firm had a TERRIBLE third quarter and is unlikely to record any increase in profitability of the FY. I will exit at any price above 16 and redeploy the funds to other counters. @S.Mutaga dont exit so fast, as i was doing some research on this one i found something very interesting on share holding of Longhorn.kirubi (centum) and francis thombe (chairman) jointly own 70%. This says alot especially when centum is involved. i have put something small to book my space in next cycle portfolio restructuring. This is a space to watch whats the material announcement? i see the price jump more than 10% with very high demand There are only two emotions in the stock market, fear and hope. The problem is, you hope when you should fear and fear when you should hope
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/13/2014 Posts: 386 Location: Denmark
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S.Mutaga III wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:littledove wrote:S.Mutaga III wrote:Longhorn Publishers...the company had stellar HY results recording a 79% jump in profits. However, Q3 results were a slight decline from last year and they issued a dividend when they announced the Q3 results (Fishy). As such, it is clear that the firm had a TERRIBLE third quarter and is unlikely to record any increase in profitability of the FY. I will exit at any price above 16 and redeploy the funds to other counters. @S.Mutaga dont exit so fast, as i was doing some research on this one i found something very interesting on share holding of Longhorn.kirubi (centum) and francis thombe (chairman) jointly own 70%. This says alot especially when centum is involved. i have put something small to book my space in next cycle portfolio restructuring. This is a space to watch Nyammo? Check out his history. The numbers say otherwise. There is no way that a company can record a 79% jump in half year profits and a flat Q3 and you convince me that something TERRIBLE did not happen in the third quarter. No matter what the story is, as soon as it hits sweet 16, I am out. It's at 19bob now.. Seeing is believing
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Rank: Member Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 830
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Actually, Longhorn surprised me...I had vowed to exit the counter at any price above 16 bob...but coincidentally, it hit 16 today...the same day the material announcement was made, so I am not selling for now...with the 1.20 dividend per share and bonus shares, I will wait and see. As for the earnings, just as I predicted, they were generally flat (EPS). A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
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Rank: Member Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 830
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Liberty and Longhorn are surely doing some justice to my portfolio...waiting for CFC stanbic now:)) Happy Hunting A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/22/2009 Posts: 7,460
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S.Mutaga III wrote:Actually, Longhorn surprised me...I had vowed to exit the counter at any price above 16 bob...but coincidentally, it hit 16 today...the same day the material announcement was made, so I am not selling for now...with the 1.20 dividend per share and bonus shares, I will wait and see. As for the earnings, just as I predicted, they were generally flat (EPS). 23/= now!!! You are in the money. That's 53% returns for you before commissions! Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/15/2006 Posts: 3,905
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MaichBlack wrote:S.Mutaga III wrote:Actually, Longhorn surprised me...I had vowed to exit the counter at any price above 16 bob...but coincidentally, it hit 16 today...the same day the material announcement was made, so I am not selling for now...with the 1.20 dividend per share and bonus shares, I will wait and see. As for the earnings, just as I predicted, they were generally flat (EPS). 23/= now!!! You are in the money. That's 53% returns for you before commissions! Fair turn of fortune. I must wonder whether there's a case for covering and saying adieu. I'm reminded once again of the second principle from the Amsterdam Exchange of 1688: Take every gain without showing remorse about missed profits, because an eel may escape sooner than you think.
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Rank: Member Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 830
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muganda wrote:MaichBlack wrote:S.Mutaga III wrote:Actually, Longhorn surprised me...I had vowed to exit the counter at any price above 16 bob...but coincidentally, it hit 16 today...the same day the material announcement was made, so I am not selling for now...with the 1.20 dividend per share and bonus shares, I will wait and see. As for the earnings, just as I predicted, they were generally flat (EPS). 23/= now!!! You are in the money. That's 53% returns for you before commissions! Fair turn of fortune. I must wonder whether there's a case for covering and saying adieu. I'm reminded once again of the second principle from the Amsterdam Exchange of 1688: Take every gain without showing remorse about missed profits, because an eel may escape sooner than you think. Sometimes it pays to change your mind...I had already made up my mind to sell at any price above 16 bob...yesterday it was trading around 15...so when it hit 16, I thought of selling but then I realized it was a 10.63% increase which hinted a material announcement...so I had to know about the announcement before selling...and alas!!I will forget about this share now for a while and focus on my other two picks. A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
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Rank: Member Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 830
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Below is an update of the one year long investment journey that I began in 2014: 1st Phase Pan Africa (40% of portfolio)= Return on investment 49.44% HFCK (30% of portfolio)= Return on investment 40.76% CFC Stanbic Holdings (20% of portfolio) = Return on investment 44.63% Cash (10% of portfolio)= Return on investment 0% Total Aggregate Gain after Phase 1 = 40.93% Return on investment All counters were sold off after the 1st phase. Assuming an arbitrary figure of 100,000Ksh as starting capital, the first phase would have yielded Ksh 40,930 in seven months and the starting capital of the next phase would be Ksh 140,930. Phase 2 Longhorn Publishers (40% of portfolio) = Return on investment 35.22% Liberty Holdings (30% of portfolio) = Return on investment 27.93% CFC Stanbic Holdings (30% of portfolio) = Return on investment (1.54%) Return on investment of phase 2 so far = 22.12% TOTAL RETURN ON INVESTMENT FROM JANUARY = 72.08%The Index has risen about 6% since January...thus, my portfolio has outperformed the nse 20 share index by a factor of 12 for a period of almost 9 months. With an arbitrary value of Ksh 100,000, my portfolio should read Ksh 172,080 before transaction expenses. The gain is derived from both phases with returns from phase one also being used as starting capital for phase 2. Going Forward: Longhorn Publishers:- Having made a surprising announcement of a Ksh 1.20 final dividend and a bonus issue of 3 shares for every 2 shares held, I am forced to hold on as I await better prices before the books close later on in the year. In the meantime, I expect the counter to rally hard to reflect the bonus issue in full upon when I will make my decision whether to sell or hold on. Liberty :- This counter is now beyong my buying threshold and not yet near my target. I am forced to wait as there is no material announcement. CfC Stanbic Holdings:- This counter has experienced a lot of resistance around the Ksh 120-135 region. Since I have no idle cash at the moment, I have no choice but to wait. I will load more below Ksh 130 if I get more cash or realize any gains from other counters. #Happy Investing 2014# A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/2/2008 Posts: 268 Location: Nairobi
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S.Mutaga III wrote:Below is an update of the one year long investment journey that I began in 2014:
1st Phase
Pan Africa (40% of portfolio)= Return on investment 49.44%
HFCK (30% of portfolio)= Return on investment 40.76%
CFC Stanbic Holdings (20% of portfolio) = Return on investment 44.63%
Cash (10% of portfolio)= Return on investment 0%
Total Aggregate Gain after Phase 1 = 40.93% Return on investment
All counters were sold off after the 1st phase. Assuming an arbitrary figure of 100,000Ksh as starting capital, the first phase would have yielded Ksh 40,930 in seven months and the starting capital of the next phase would be Ksh 140,930.
Phase 2
Longhorn Publishers (40% of portfolio) = Return on investment 35.22%
Liberty Holdings (30% of portfolio) = Return on investment 27.93%
CFC Stanbic Holdings (30% of portfolio) = Return on investment (1.54%)
Return on investment of phase 2 so far = 22.12%
TOTAL RETURN ON INVESTMENT FROM JANUARY = 72.08%
The Index has risen about 6% since January...thus, my portfolio has outperformed the nse 20 share index by a factor of 12 for a period of almost 9 months.
With an arbitrary value of Ksh 100,000, my portfolio should read Ksh 172,080 before transaction expenses. The gain is derived from both phases with returns from phase one also being used as starting capital for phase 2.
Going Forward:
Longhorn Publishers:- Having made a surprising announcement of a Ksh 1.20 final dividend and a bonus issue of 3 shares for every 2 shares held, I am forced to hold on as I await better prices before the books close later on in the year. In the meantime, I expect the counter to rally hard to reflect the bonus issue in full upon when I will make my decision whether to sell or hold on.
Liberty :- This counter is now beyong my buying threshold and not yet near my target. I am forced to wait as there is no material announcement.
CfC Stanbic Holdings:- This counter has experienced a lot of resistance around the Ksh 120-135 region. Since I have no idle cash at the moment, I have no choice but to wait. I will load more below Ksh 130 if I get more cash or realize any gains from other counters.
#Happy Investing 2014# I like this guy! Very bold and very practical. No sentimental hold on any particular counter. Never shy to give figures. Sell, make money and move on. I like your style. keep us posted. Some of us are learning a thing of two from you. 
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