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Safaricom at 10 Bob ?
Rank: Elder Joined: 9/15/2006 Posts: 3,906
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Safaricom with 80.2% voice traffic market share. So what's the revenue market share, I estimate 88% The big question is: If 3 players share only 9% revenue and compete against 1 player with 88% revenue market share, isn't this sector now uncompetitive, meaning it can only offer the consumer diminishing returns in terms of choice? Safaricom could have the single largest market share of any African country; Orange in Senegal is about 60%. Time will tell...
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/10/2007 Posts: 1,587
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@muganda,
True, but I am not sure whether safaricom has used any uncompetitive means to be where they are now. I think they paid higher amount of money than any other operator for the license.
I remember during the early days of the mighty Kencell, we were literally asking them to introduce cheaper top up cards, different tariffs for calling, but Kencell was adamant. Finally Safcom listened to the people, went above the cutting edge on the innovation curve. Went on a relentless marketing strategy. They went for the mass market, when their rival was looking for the upmarket clientele. The rest as they say is history. Safcom is now a super brand.
Having said that, I wish we had another operator that would compete with safcom. That is when the consumers would get maximum benefits.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/15/2006 Posts: 3,906
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No doubt @PKoli, it would be unfair to put down the herculean efforts of Safaricom. 2012 observatory survey confirms Kenya is a key market in Africa, fifth placed in market penetration, with mobile offerings among the cheapest in Africa.
So the biggest culprit in non-competitiveness is Kenya Government. Reluctant to initially license a keen MTN, saddling all new entrants with ineffective local entities, hawking spectrum to political middlemen, and belatedly entranced by the wiles of Safaricom.
Interesting to see how our lopsided market will compare to Tanzania long term. Tanzania is truly competitive with Vodacom 34%, Airtel 31%, Tigo 23%, ZanTel 11%. Tanzania no of connections is hot on Kenya's tracks, and they already lead in minutes of use. Average Tz subscriber speaks 3X more and sends 4X the number of SMS. Tanzania had 3G in 2008, and leads Kenya in terms of assigned mobile spectrum.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,172 Location: Nairobi
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muganda wrote:No doubt @PKoli, it would be unfair to put down the herculean efforts of Safaricom. 2012 observatory survey confirms Kenya is a key market in Africa, fifth placed in market penetration, with mobile offerings among the cheapest in Africa.
So the biggest culprit in non-competitiveness is Kenya Government. Reluctant to initially license a keen MTN, saddling all new entrants with ineffective local entities, hawking spectrum to political middlemen, and belatedly entranced by the wiles of Safaricom.
Interesting to see how our lopsided market will compare to Tanzania long term. Tanzania is truly competitive with Vodacom 34%, Airtel 31%, Tigo 23%, ZanTel 11%. Tanzania no of connections is hot on Kenya's tracks, and they already lead in minutes of use. Average Tz subscriber speaks 3X more and sends 4X the number of SMS. Tanzania had 3G in 2008, and leads Kenya in terms of assigned mobile spectrum.
Ahhh! Why you ask? Well, it turns out that Mobiltelea owned 10% of Safcom at the time! So the perverse incentive to not have a serious competitor to Celtel (merali is a crook who was in bed with moi) & Safaricom was huge! Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/20/2007 Posts: 2,044 Location: Lagos, Nigeria
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This is real. The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
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Rank: Member Joined: 4/14/2011 Posts: 639
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Rank: Elder Joined: 5/27/2008 Posts: 3,760
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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Soon to become the Kenyan AT&T  http://www.businessdaily.../-/150j6u9z/-/index.html"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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10/- Printed 19/11/2013 how long will it hold? Alykhan says we're going to see 12/- Brokers are now drumming support for Safcom coz of MPESA yet Wazuans did that in 2012. BTW @Mweke and @sparky thanks for the reports keep sharing @pesa nane u beat me to it "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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murchr wrote:10/- Printed 19/11/2013 how long will it hold? Alykhan says we're going to see 12/- Brokers are now drumming support for Safcom coz of MPESA yet Wazuans did that in 2012. BTW @Mweke and @sparky thanks for the reports keep sharing @pesa nane u beat me to it Likely year close objective is 10/- then Jan - Feb the support comes in for the move higher to get going.$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Member You have been a member since:: 2/8/2007 Posts: 808
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But Alykhan said KQ would cross 15.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 985 Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
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Kausha wrote:But Alykhan said KQ would cross 15. It will definately.Its just taking a breather! ON SAFARICOM BID:4461000 KSH 10.05 ASK: 39,800 KSH 10.10 Supply is dying out completely from 10.20-10.70 Watch it!
“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
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Rank: Member Joined: 12/21/2007 Posts: 84
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Wah past 10 bob now and demand still high.
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Rank: Member You have been a member since:: 2/8/2007 Posts: 808
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Can't really call 8m Safcom demand high. That's normal demand. On KQ, It seems it is taking very heavy breathes at this point. Hope it has lungs to resume play towards 15. It appears to me to have lost momentum.
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Rank: Member You have been a member since:: 2/8/2007 Posts: 808
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Can't really call 8m Safcom demand high. That's normal demand. On KQ, It seems it is taking very heavy breathes at this point. Hope it has lungs to resume play towards 15. It appears to me to have lost momentum.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,187 Location: nairobi
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Any wanjiku holding safcom upto now is really hard hearted and deserves the reward..the supply is drying so fast suggesting no wanjikus "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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mlennyma wrote:Any wanjiku holding safcom upto now is really hard hearted and deserves the reward..the supply is drying so fast suggesting no wanjikus Indeed. By now wanjikus have already bailed out. Soon they'll be back buying tops. Then tears again...
The counter closed @10.05 which shows the intent to defend 10/- handle as year closes. Jan-Feb will be interesting if bulls can hold their legs.$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Member Joined: 8/29/2008 Posts: 571
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If the Bulls have legs.We,the BEARS will make good soup from those legs.We are waiting.....
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Old Mutual ranks mpesa bank stock as 'priciest' in their telco survey. http://www.businessdaily.../-/9wals9z/-/index.html
OM says hold while HSBC and SBC are on lighten recos. Perfect  Been saying so since 7.50 caved in. Cashflow bazooka, assured div hike and debt free carrots have pinned the bid pressure with an outlook stretching to 2015. Until the bid pressure seizes, the melt up will continue... Vodafone, mpesa bank's large shareholder has a utopia P/E above 200!? If voda, fresh with cash from that sale to Verizon suggests to increase its mpesa stake, what will happen to mpesa's stock price... $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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This is an interesting story on SCOM...if its true then its not good news at all http://www.businessdaily...0/-/wp471e/-/index.html
The dynamics will change the moment SCOM starts sharing its mobile money platform with other players.
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