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Eye on I&M ...
Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,515 Location: nairobi
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VituVingiSana wrote:My (hurried) analysis. (Sensible) Input required so we know whose views are not needed.
PAT 1H 2016 [excl Mauritius and Rwanda] 3,483mn [Line 14 of KE (incl TZ) results per the published results]
EPS 8.85 [based on 393mn shares. No idea how many ESOP shares are out there]
If I&M can manage just 75% of the 1H in 2H [3Q under the current interest regime and then 4Q under the lower interest regime] = 8.88 x 1.75 = EPS 15.54/share
Add RW + Mauritius for EPS of 1.46 attributable to I&M Holdings so 15.54 + 1.46 = 17/- EPS
I expect more from RW + Mauritius coz MU is quite profitable for them.
At 96.50 that's 5.67 PER for FY 2016.
NAV [KE+TZ] is 29,165mn = NAV/Share = 74 [Then there's MU + RW]. That's PB of 1.30
@Aguy @kausha @Wazuans [except you know who] am I missing something?
You are missing common sense brother. Uza hii nyani
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,515 Location: nairobi
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This one shall not recover.. Small banks are officially kaput
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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obiero wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:My (hurried) analysis. (Sensible) Input required so we know whose views are not needed.
PAT 1H 2016 [excl Mauritius and Rwanda] 3,483mn [Line 14 of KE (incl TZ) results per the published results]
EPS 8.85 [based on 393mn shares. No idea how many ESOP shares are out there]
If I&M can manage just 75% of the 1H in 2H [3Q under the current interest regime and then 4Q under the lower interest regime] = 8.88 x 1.75 = EPS 15.54/share
Add RW + Mauritius for EPS of 1.46 attributable to I&M Holdings so 15.54 + 1.46 = 17/- EPS
I expect more from RW + Mauritius coz MU is quite profitable for them.
At 96.50 that's 5.67 PER for FY 2016.
NAV [KE+TZ] is 29,165mn = NAV/Share = 74 [Then there's MU + RW]. That's PB of 1.30
@Aguy @kausha @Wazuans [except you know who] am I missing something?
You are missing common sense brother. Uza hii nyani This what is called fat tails. With new interest cap. What will be eps be in FY 2017 estimate? That's the real question The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,515 Location: nairobi
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Aguytrying wrote:obiero wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:My (hurried) analysis. (Sensible) Input required so we know whose views are not needed.
PAT 1H 2016 [excl Mauritius and Rwanda] 3,483mn [Line 14 of KE (incl TZ) results per the published results]
EPS 8.85 [based on 393mn shares. No idea how many ESOP shares are out there]
If I&M can manage just 75% of the 1H in 2H [3Q under the current interest regime and then 4Q under the lower interest regime] = 8.88 x 1.75 = EPS 15.54/share
Add RW + Mauritius for EPS of 1.46 attributable to I&M Holdings so 15.54 + 1.46 = 17/- EPS
I expect more from RW + Mauritius coz MU is quite profitable for them.
At 96.50 that's 5.67 PER for FY 2016.
NAV [KE+TZ] is 29,165mn = NAV/Share = 74 [Then there's MU + RW]. That's PB of 1.30
@Aguy @kausha @Wazuans [except you know who] am I missing something?
You are missing common sense brother. Uza hii nyani This what is called fat tails. With new interest cap. What will be eps be in FY 2017 estimate? That's the real question The real question actually is whether the bank will be around in 2017.. Remember all the banks that have gone under or merged have a link to Asia
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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obiero wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:My (hurried) analysis. (Sensible) Input required so we know whose views are not needed.
PAT 1H 2016 [excl Mauritius and Rwanda] 3,483mn [Line 14 of KE (incl TZ) results per the published results]
EPS 8.85 [based on 393mn shares. No idea how many ESOP shares are out there]
If I&M can manage just 75% of the 1H in 2H [3Q under the current interest regime and then 4Q under the lower interest regime] = 8.88 x 1.75 = EPS 15.54/share
Add RW + Mauritius for EPS of 1.46 attributable to I&M Holdings so 15.54 + 1.46 = 17/- EPS
I expect more from RW + Mauritius coz MU is quite profitable for them.
At 96.50 that's 5.67 PER for FY 2016.
NAV [KE+TZ] is 29,165mn = NAV/Share = 74 [Then there's MU + RW]. That's PB of 1.30
@Aguy @kausha @Wazuans [except you know who] am I missing something?
You are missing common sense brother. Uza hii nyani  OMG you guys are on another level. "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,103 Location: Nairobi
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Aguytrying wrote:obiero wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:My (hurried) analysis. (Sensible) Input required so we know whose views are not needed.
PAT 1H 2016 [excl Mauritius and Rwanda] 3,483mn [Line 14 of KE (incl TZ) results per the published results]
EPS 8.85 [based on 393mn shares. No idea how many ESOP shares are out there]
If I&M can manage just 75% of the 1H in 2H [3Q under the current interest regime and then 4Q under the lower interest regime] = 8.88 x 1.75 = EPS 15.54/share
Add RW + Mauritius for EPS of 1.46 attributable to I&M Holdings so 15.54 + 1.46 = 17/- EPS
I expect more from RW + Mauritius coz MU is quite profitable for them.
At 96.50 that's 5.67 PER for FY 2016.
NAV [KE+TZ] is 29,165mn = NAV/Share = 74 [Then there's MU + RW]. That's PB of 1.30
@Aguy @kausha @Wazuans [except you know who] am I missing something?
You are missing common sense brother. Uza hii nyani This what is called fat tails. With new interest cap. What will be eps be in FY 2017 estimate? That's the real question A question I have been giving a lot of thought. My take [and feel free to poke holes]... 1) Who are I&M BORROWING customers? Folks who primarily [except some credit cards, etc] have loans that have been secured which helps manage defaults thus a slimmer NIM isn't a death knell. 2) Who are I&M DEPOSIT customers? Folks who can negotiate higher rates for FDRs so paying 70% of CBR/KBRR isn't unheard of. What will I&M do with the low-balance savings accounts? Close them? Raise the minimum balances? 3) Tech will become a bigger part of I&M's "outreach" by slowing down branch expansion/visits. That's a given given the advances in mobile tech and increased/cheaper internet availability. 4) Expand overseas. There's Mauritius [mature market but scope for organic growth], Rwanda [a small but growing market] and Tanzania [let's leave that alone!]. Plus there is a chance to buy into Uganda. Use Mauritius as a launching pad for expansion into other (underbanked) African countries. At the "right" price, I think it makes lots of sense [to me] to add more shares t my holdings. Let's say the EPS drops to 10/-(for 2017) then the PER is still 9 which isn't too bad. [No, I will not defend I&M like he-who-defends-KQ come rain and more rain] Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,515 Location: nairobi
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VituVingiSana wrote:Aguytrying wrote:obiero wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:My (hurried) analysis. (Sensible) Input required so we know whose views are not needed.
PAT 1H 2016 [excl Mauritius and Rwanda] 3,483mn [Line 14 of KE (incl TZ) results per the published results]
EPS 8.85 [based on 393mn shares. No idea how many ESOP shares are out there]
If I&M can manage just 75% of the 1H in 2H [3Q under the current interest regime and then 4Q under the lower interest regime] = 8.88 x 1.75 = EPS 15.54/share
Add RW + Mauritius for EPS of 1.46 attributable to I&M Holdings so 15.54 + 1.46 = 17/- EPS
I expect more from RW + Mauritius coz MU is quite profitable for them.
At 96.50 that's 5.67 PER for FY 2016.
NAV [KE+TZ] is 29,165mn = NAV/Share = 74 [Then there's MU + RW]. That's PB of 1.30
@Aguy @kausha @Wazuans [except you know who] am I missing something?
You are missing common sense brother. Uza hii nyani This what is called fat tails. With new interest cap. What will be eps be in FY 2017 estimate? That's the real question A question I have been giving a lot of thought. My take [and feel free to poke holes]... 1) Who are I&M BORROWING customers? Folks who primarily [except some credit cards, etc] have loans that have been secured which helps manage defaults thus a slimmer NIM isn't a death knell. 2) Who are I&M DEPOSIT customers? Folks who can negotiate higher rates for FDRs so paying 70% of CBR/KBRR isn't unheard of. What will I&M do with the low-balance savings accounts? Close them? Raise the minimum balances? 3) Tech will become a bigger part of I&M's "outreach" by slowing down branch expansion/visits. That's a given given the advances in mobile tech and increased/cheaper internet availability. 4) Expand overseas. There's Mauritius [mature market but scope for organic growth], Rwanda [a small but growing market] and Tanzania [let's leave that alone!]. Plus there is a chance to buy into Uganda. Use Mauritius as a launching pad for expansion into other (underbanked) African countries. At the "right" price, I think it makes lots of sense [to me] to add more shares t my holdings. Let's say the EPS drops to 10/-(for 2017) then the PER is still 9 which isn't too bad. [No, I will not defend I&M like he-who-defends-KQ come rain and more rain] My dearest brother.. This one will kill you. Trouble is you can't even exit coz it's close knit shareholding structure. Here EPS, PER, NPL or any other ratio will be a waste of brain cells, just consider yourself screwed.. Pole
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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Why so negative @obiero. This is not a small bank. @vvs. ur reasoning makes sense, time will tell. Too much uncertainty to predict, but, fortune "or death" favours the brave. I'd rather shoot first and ask questions last when some calm is restored in Equity and DTB my banks. Than do nothing. But a wait and see approach for a few days is a good idea The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,103 Location: Nairobi
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obiero wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Aguytrying wrote:obiero wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:My (hurried) analysis. (Sensible) Input required so we know whose views are not needed.
PAT 1H 2016 [excl Mauritius and Rwanda] 3,483mn [Line 14 of KE (incl TZ) results per the published results]
EPS 8.85 [based on 393mn shares. No idea how many ESOP shares are out there]
If I&M can manage just 75% of the 1H in 2H [3Q under the current interest regime and then 4Q under the lower interest regime] = 8.88 x 1.75 = EPS 15.54/share
Add RW + Mauritius for EPS of 1.46 attributable to I&M Holdings so 15.54 + 1.46 = 17/- EPS
I expect more from RW + Mauritius coz MU is quite profitable for them.
At 96.50 that's 5.67 PER for FY 2016.
NAV [KE+TZ] is 29,165mn = NAV/Share = 74 [Then there's MU + RW]. That's PB of 1.30
@Aguy @kausha @Wazuans [except you know who] am I missing something?
You are missing common sense brother. Uza hii nyani This what is called fat tails. With new interest cap. What will be eps be in FY 2017 estimate? That's the real question A question I have been giving a lot of thought. My take [and feel free to poke holes]... 1) Who are I&M BORROWING customers? Folks who primarily [except some credit cards, etc] have loans that have been secured which helps manage defaults thus a slimmer NIM isn't a death knell. 2) Who are I&M DEPOSIT customers? Folks who can negotiate higher rates for FDRs so paying 70% of CBR/KBRR isn't unheard of. What will I&M do with the low-balance savings accounts? Close them? Raise the minimum balances? 3) Tech will become a bigger part of I&M's "outreach" by slowing down branch expansion/visits. That's a given given the advances in mobile tech and increased/cheaper internet availability. 4) Expand overseas. There's Mauritius [mature market but scope for organic growth], Rwanda [a small but growing market] and Tanzania [let's leave that alone!]. Plus there is a chance to buy into Uganda. Use Mauritius as a launching pad for expansion into other (underbanked) African countries. At the "right" price, I think it makes lots of sense [to me] to add more shares t my holdings. Let's say the EPS drops to 10/-(for 2017) then the PER is still 9 which isn't too bad. [No, I will not defend I&M like he-who-defends-KQ come rain and more rain] My dearest brother.. This one will kill you. Trouble is you can't even exit coz it's close knit shareholding structure. Here EPS, PER, NPL or any other ratio will be a waste of brain cells, just consider yourself screwed.. Pole Then let this be my KQ ... Waiting for Monday and I hope it gets cheaper coz I want to buy! Whether we’re talking about socks or stocks, I like buying quality merchandise when it is marked down - Warren Buffett
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,515 Location: nairobi
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VituVingiSana wrote:obiero wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Aguytrying wrote:obiero wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:My (hurried) analysis. (Sensible) Input required so we know whose views are not needed.
PAT 1H 2016 [excl Mauritius and Rwanda] 3,483mn [Line 14 of KE (incl TZ) results per the published results]
EPS 8.85 [based on 393mn shares. No idea how many ESOP shares are out there]
If I&M can manage just 75% of the 1H in 2H [3Q under the current interest regime and then 4Q under the lower interest regime] = 8.88 x 1.75 = EPS 15.54/share
Add RW + Mauritius for EPS of 1.46 attributable to I&M Holdings so 15.54 + 1.46 = 17/- EPS
I expect more from RW + Mauritius coz MU is quite profitable for them.
At 96.50 that's 5.67 PER for FY 2016.
NAV [KE+TZ] is 29,165mn = NAV/Share = 74 [Then there's MU + RW]. That's PB of 1.30
@Aguy @kausha @Wazuans [except you know who] am I missing something?
You are missing common sense brother. Uza hii nyani This what is called fat tails. With new interest cap. What will be eps be in FY 2017 estimate? That's the real question A question I have been giving a lot of thought. My take [and feel free to poke holes]... 1) Who are I&M BORROWING customers? Folks who primarily [except some credit cards, etc] have loans that have been secured which helps manage defaults thus a slimmer NIM isn't a death knell. 2) Who are I&M DEPOSIT customers? Folks who can negotiate higher rates for FDRs so paying 70% of CBR/KBRR isn't unheard of. What will I&M do with the low-balance savings accounts? Close them? Raise the minimum balances? 3) Tech will become a bigger part of I&M's "outreach" by slowing down branch expansion/visits. That's a given given the advances in mobile tech and increased/cheaper internet availability. 4) Expand overseas. There's Mauritius [mature market but scope for organic growth], Rwanda [a small but growing market] and Tanzania [let's leave that alone!]. Plus there is a chance to buy into Uganda. Use Mauritius as a launching pad for expansion into other (underbanked) African countries. At the "right" price, I think it makes lots of sense [to me] to add more shares t my holdings. Let's say the EPS drops to 10/-(for 2017) then the PER is still 9 which isn't too bad. [No, I will not defend I&M like he-who-defends-KQ come rain and more rain] My dearest brother.. This one will kill you. Trouble is you can't even exit coz it's close knit shareholding structure. Here EPS, PER, NPL or any other ratio will be a waste of brain cells, just consider yourself screwed.. Pole Then let this be my KQ ... Waiting for Monday and I hope it gets cheaper coz I want to buy! Whether we’re talking about socks or stocks, I like buying quality merchandise when it is marked down - Warren Buffett
To each his own.. I wish you all the best brother
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,515 Location: nairobi
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KES 78.50.. True to my word, today's largest looser on financial services.. @vvs I feel your pain and I will not mock you.. The world evens up the odds
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/7/2012 Posts: 11,908
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obiero wrote:KES 78.50.. True to my word, today's largest looser on financial services.. @vvs I feel your pain and I will not mock you.. The world evens up the odds This one will be back to 100+ before you know it  In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,515 Location: nairobi
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Angelica _ann wrote:obiero wrote:KES 78.50.. True to my word, today's largest looser on financial services.. @vvs I feel your pain and I will not mock you.. The world evens up the odds This one will be back to 100+ before you know it This bank is the most likely to wind up among listed financial services ..
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,103 Location: Nairobi
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obiero wrote:KES 78.50.. True to my word, today's largest looser on financial services.. @vvs I feel your pain and I will not mock you.. The world evens up the odds Asante for your concern but I hope it goes down another 10% tomorrow. I am looking to pick some up.  I like quality firms at discounts. http://wazua.co.ke/forum...m=748516&#post748516Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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VituVingiSana wrote:[quote=obiero]KES 78.50.. True to my word, today's largest looser on financial services.. @vvs I feel your pain and I will not mock you.. The world evens up the odds Asante for your concern but I hope it goes down another 10% tomorrow. I am looking to pick some up. I like quality firms at discounts. http://wazua.co.ke/forum...=748516&#post748516[/quote] Me too. I'm soon getting DTB at around 140 when funds come through. That's the price for 5 years ago! The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,103 Location: Nairobi
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Spoilt for choice. Cash is the only constraint. In for some I&M today though my initial low-ball offer didn't work. Broker said try 78 [yesterday's close]. No complaints. The 1H 2016 Holdings results are quite good with 1H at an EPS of 9.95. Kenya remains the key driver though. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,515 Location: nairobi
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VituVingiSana wrote:Spoilt for choice. Cash is the only constraint. In for some I&M today though my initial low-ball offer didn't work. Broker said try 78 [yesterday's close]. No complaints. The 1H 2016 Holdings results are quite good with 1H at an EPS of 9.95. Kenya remains the key driver though. LOL..
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,515 Location: nairobi
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Heading straight to sub 80
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,515 Location: nairobi
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dunkang wrote:mufasa wrote:obiero wrote:I&M has caught my eye.. My measurements tell me that its a steal at current price. with bond issuance for expansion into East Africa, the stock can only go up.. based on previous owners conditioning for super profits, I expect a swing upto high of KES 350 in about 1 year. Thank me later Thank You @obiero am getting out tommorow. 350 is too far  . Still waiting 19/- for KQ. Still waiting....... Welcome @mufasa
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,515 Location: nairobi
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obiero wrote:dunkang wrote:mufasa wrote:obiero wrote:I&M has caught my eye.. My measurements tell me that its a steal at current price. with bond issuance for expansion into East Africa, the stock can only go up.. based on previous owners conditioning for super profits, I expect a swing upto high of KES 350 in about 1 year. Thank me later Thank You @obiero am getting out tommorow. 350 is too far . Still waiting 19/- for KQ. Still waiting....... Welcome @mufasa Hey @vvs.. KES 75 has printed
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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