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Market Correction!
the deal
#41 Posted : Wednesday, June 19, 2013 4:51:47 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
[quote=the deal]Yesterday when we had the biggest drop in the NSE20 Index this year...foreign investors were net buyers...so stop blaming foreigners...its actually local investors who are torching the NSE...and CGT is the prime reason...cos the JSE has gained 3% since Monday...this has nothing to do with the US stimulus programme...Kenya is a frontier market...its very disconnected from what goes on...on the global arena...the best proxy is SA...for us who trade in that market will tell you so!

So when the last foreign withdrawal happened sending Scom from 8 to 2.5, and the NSE down with it, were we any less connected to the GFC or not?

http://www.newera.com.na...nomic-struggle---Nujoma[/quote]
My point was...foreigners have not yet started offloading...once they start offloading it will not be a joke...the NSE rarely reacts to global events...Look at a chart showing the correlation between the NSE20, JSE ALL Share Index and NYSE...and you will see the divergence my friend!




S&P 500 vs JSE and NSE20
mwekez@ji
#42 Posted : Wednesday, June 19, 2013 5:16:08 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
The MSCI Frontier 100 Index [of which Nairobi is a Part] is up 14 percent this year.. By contrast, nearly $10 billion has flowed out of emerging market ETFs this year, and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index is down 8.1 percent. The MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) has a correlation to the S&P 500 Index of .83 (on a scale of -1 to 1) over three years. The MSCI Frontier 100 Index has a much lower correlation of .46 as per Bloomberg. Therefore, Events far away in the Developed World are expected diminish as They reach the Frontier. With the Rand and Real at 4 year Lows and The India Rupee at all time Lows versus The Dollar, it is evident that Concerns around the Tapering of QE in the US are already creating a 'BlowBack' Effect as seen in the currencies just mentioned.
The Securities Exchange which was 8th best in The World last Year out of 104 I track had experienced a Stellar Run through 22nd May when it was +35.91% for the Year. Subsequently the Sell Off was orderly and light until the last few sessions when it accelerated and interestingly was quite synchronised with a Sell-Off in Nigeria. The Nigeria All Share whilst +35.33% in 2013 has corrected 7.46775% since closing at a Multi Year High on the 11th of June. With The Macro Economy being upgraded 700 bps in 2013 by the World Bank. By Necessity, this will speed up the EAC GDP Trajectory because Kenya is a Big Piece of the EAC Equation. These are serious Macro Tail Winds. Therefore, I see the Bull Market as in tact and the recent Correction [now completed] as Part of a Sequence of Corrections that we have experienced in what has been a Bull Move that started in April/May last year. There had been some Concerns around the Introduction of Capital Gains Tax and Geoffrey Mwau, economic secretary at the Treasury, told reporters on Wednesday; "We have not even worked out how (the tax) will be implemented, the rates or even which areas will be taxed." Sure the Nairobi Securities Exchange caught a Little Fever with the Onset of the Cold Season but that now has passed.
The Nairobi All share rebounded 0.707% to close at 119.62.
The Nairobi All Share has staunched a losing Streak that had seen The Index retreat 7.46775% 22nd May through this morning.
The All Share is +26.101% in 2013.
The Nairobi NSE20 firmed 3.97 points to close at 4705.19.
Today saw Heavy Action with Turnover of 1.098b versus 495.034m.

Rich Today - Ditto
mibbz
#43 Posted : Wednesday, June 19, 2013 7:17:39 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/18/2011
Posts: 448
kizee1 wrote:
guru267 wrote:
kizee1 wrote:
guru267 wrote:
Pretty simple process!

1. US economy improves
2. US Central Bank stops pumping money
3. interest rates rise and US dollar strengthen
4. Carry trade officially dies
5. US fund managers exit emerging and frontier markets including NSE!
6. Emerging and frontier markets sell off including NSE..

Pretty simple!


the sell off was too rapid, it cannot be precipitated by the factors you have listed some of which are actually erroneous for instance what does a carry trade have to do with equities? US economy recovers? you must be kidding me! Fed stops monetizing and you speak of a recovery??? where are US rates vis a vis frontier?

we would need an event such as a lehmans collapse to see such a rapid exit


@kizee if you can call any of my points above erroneous then your knowledge in economics is pretty wanting! I can't really help with that one Sad

And if you were slightly more exposed you would see other emerging stock markets are also on the decline! Did they also introduce CGT?? smile

How can anyone talk about investors running away from Capital gains tax?? Maybe only Wanjiku would sell for such a reason! Any sophisticated investor knows there is nowhere to run to so they might as well stay put!!


interesting...you dont answer any of my questions then you claim my econ knowledge is wanting and that i am not exposed, meanwhile today the index rebounds somewhat after talk that CgT will not be charged on securities..follow the thread on the CgT discussion and get some insights


@kizee1 hapo umeweka one @guru on the spot,really good at dodging questionsApplause Applause Applause
murchr
#44 Posted : Wednesday, June 19, 2013 7:42:22 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
mwekez@ji wrote:
The MSCI Frontier 100 Index [of which Nairobi is a Part] is up 14 percent this year.. By contrast, nearly $10 billion has flowed out of emerging market ETFs this year, and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index is down 8.1 percent. The MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) has a correlation to the S&P 500 Index of .83 (on a scale of -1 to 1) over three years. The MSCI Frontier 100 Index has a much lower correlation of .46 as per Bloomberg. Therefore, Events far away in the Developed World are expected diminish as They reach the Frontier. With the Rand and Real at 4 year Lows and The India Rupee at all time Lows versus The Dollar, it is evident that Concerns around the Tapering of QE in the US are already creating a 'BlowBack' Effect as seen in the currencies just mentioned.
The Securities Exchange which was 8th best in The World last Year out of 104 I track had experienced a Stellar Run through 22nd May when it was +35.91% for the Year. Subsequently the Sell Off was orderly and light until the last few sessions when it accelerated and interestingly was quite synchronised with a Sell-Off in Nigeria. The Nigeria All Share whilst +35.33% in 2013 has corrected 7.46775% since closing at a Multi Year High on the 11th of June. With The Macro Economy being upgraded 700 bps in 2013 by the World Bank. By Necessity, this will speed up the EAC GDP Trajectory because Kenya is a Big Piece of the EAC Equation. These are serious Macro Tail Winds. Therefore, I see the Bull Market as in tact and the recent Correction [now completed] as Part of a Sequence of Corrections that we have experienced in what has been a Bull Move that started in April/May last year. There had been some Concerns around the Introduction of Capital Gains Tax and Geoffrey Mwau, economic secretary at the Treasury, told reporters on Wednesday; "We have not even worked out how (the tax) will be implemented, the rates or even which areas will be taxed." Sure the Nairobi Securities Exchange caught a Little Fever with the Onset of the Cold Season but that now has passed.
The Nairobi All share rebounded 0.707% to close at 119.62.
The Nairobi All Share has staunched a losing Streak that had seen The Index retreat 7.46775% 22nd May through this morning.
The All Share is +26.101% in 2013.
The Nairobi NSE20 firmed 3.97 points to close at 4705.19.
Today saw Heavy Action with Turnover of 1.098b versus 495.034m.

Rich Today - Ditto


"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
guru267
#45 Posted : Wednesday, June 19, 2013 8:12:00 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
For weeks I said if US 10year treasuries spiked then global markets will sell off... NSE included!

US 10year treasuries recently spiked from 1.6% - 2.2% causing a global sell off in emerging market equities including the NSE!

If the fed chairman calms the market US 10year treasuries will fall and global markets will rise including the NSE!

To those who claim foreigners are not selling out please explain why the shilling is at 13week lows heading for 86/USD??



Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
kizee1
#46 Posted : Wednesday, June 19, 2013 9:33:02 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/29/2010
Posts: 679
Location: nairobi
guru267 wrote:
For weeks I said if US 10year treasuries spiked then global markets will sell off... NSE included!

US 10year treasuries recently spiked from 1.6% - 2.2% causing a global sell off in emerging market equities including the NSE!

If the fed chairman calms the market US 10year treasuries will fall and global markets will rise including the NSE!

To those who claim foreigners are not selling out please explain why the shilling is at 13week lows heading for 86/USD??






who said foreigners arent selling? take for instance witholding tax? if it were waived would there be more or less offshore interest in KE bonds? ama in your view CgT does not apply to foreigners?
guru267
#47 Posted : Wednesday, June 19, 2013 11:08:40 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
kizee1 wrote:
guru267 wrote:
For weeks I said if US 10year treasuries spiked then global markets will sell off... NSE included!

US 10year treasuries recently spiked from 1.6% - 2.2% causing a global sell off in emerging market equities including the NSE!

If the fed chairman calms the market US 10year treasuries will fall and global markets will rise including the NSE!

To those who claim foreigners are not selling out please explain why the shilling is at 13week lows heading for 86/USD??






who said foreigners arent selling? take for instance witholding tax? if it were waived would there be more or less offshore interest in KE bonds? ama in your view CgT does not apply to foreigners?


@kizee haven't you been reading @the deal's posts?? He is insisting locals are the ones driving the market down!


In USA CGT is charged at 15% and UK charges 18% - 28%... So I want you to explain what is spooking the foreigners about 10% CGT and also explain where they are running to??

Everyone is so quick to say the exit is being caused by CGT!! But my question remains... EXIT TO WHERE??
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
kizee1
#48 Posted : Thursday, June 20, 2013 1:08:28 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/29/2010
Posts: 679
Location: nairobi
guru267 wrote:
kizee1 wrote:
guru267 wrote:
For weeks I said if US 10year treasuries spiked then global markets will sell off... NSE included!

US 10year treasuries recently spiked from 1.6% - 2.2% causing a global sell off in emerging market equities including the NSE!

If the fed chairman calms the market US 10year treasuries will fall and global markets will rise including the NSE!

To those who claim foreigners are not selling out please explain why the shilling is at 13week lows heading for 86/USD??






who said foreigners arent selling? take for instance witholding tax? if it were waived would there be more or less offshore interest in KE bonds? ama in your view CgT does not apply to foreigners?


@kizee haven't you been reading @the deal's posts?? He is insisting locals are the ones driving the market down!


In USA CGT is charged at 15% and UK charges 18% - 28%... So I want you to explain what is spooking the foreigners about 10% CGT and also explain where they are running to??

Everyone is so quick to say the exit is being caused by CGT!! But my question remains... EXIT TO WHERE??


we are going in circles here and im getting dizzy!! im out of this thread its been real!
Metasploit
#49 Posted : Thursday, June 20, 2013 1:49:43 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 985
Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
Metasploit
#50 Posted : Thursday, June 20, 2013 2:12:43 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 985
Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
guru267
#51 Posted : Thursday, June 20, 2013 10:56:22 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
The global sell off today was amazing! NSE set to follow suit whether we like it or not!

But in the long run the bull is on as we are likely to see global economies improve!
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
guru267
#52 Posted : Friday, June 21, 2013 2:10:54 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
To all of that are arguing about capital gains tax Let us see how the NSE will survive this selloff!!
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
guru267
#53 Posted : Friday, June 21, 2013 2:41:25 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
KES/USD headed for 90bo???
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
symbols
#54 Posted : Friday, June 21, 2013 2:59:54 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 3/19/2013
Posts: 2,552
guru267 wrote:
The global sell off today was amazing! NSE set to follow suit whether we like it or not!

But in the long run the bull is on as we are likely to see global economies improve!


The problem is now people are interested in the US economy underperforming.
hisah
#55 Posted : Friday, June 21, 2013 5:57:33 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
guru267 wrote:
The global sell off today was amazing! NSE set to follow suit whether we like it or not!

But in the long run the bull is on as we are likely to see global economies improve!

Dow breaks below 15000, SPX breaks below 1600; US mkts catching up. Closely watching the euroland ccys (euro & swiss). The crossfire is coming to haunt bonds and it'll be swift and commodities too will take it on the chin on sizable blows. Gold is signalling the alarm...

However major markets still remain bullish until their critical support levels breakdown.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Sober
#56 Posted : Monday, June 24, 2013 9:18:53 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 11/27/2007
Posts: 3,604
http://www.businessdaily...4/-/a1vuo2z/-/index.html
African parents don't know how to say sorry.. the closest you will get to a sorry is a 'have you eaten'
The optimist
#57 Posted : Monday, June 24, 2013 10:05:57 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/14/2010
Posts: 521
Location: Nairobi
Sober wrote:
http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/Nervous-foreign-investors-cut-NSE-wealth-by-Sh100bn/-/539552/1892344/-/a1vuo2z/-/index.html
All pointers are pointing southSad
Sober
#58 Posted : Monday, June 24, 2013 10:20:27 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 11/27/2007
Posts: 3,604
Market seems to be opening the week with mild gains and losses. lets wait for the mid-morning traders
African parents don't know how to say sorry.. the closest you will get to a sorry is a 'have you eaten'
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