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Banking Sector Valuation and Recommendation - Year 2013
mwekez@ji
#41 Posted : Monday, June 10, 2013 4:20:03 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
mwekez@ji wrote:
symbols wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
Bank | Share price | Fair value | Return | Rating

CFC | 62.50 | 95.05 | +52.1% | BUY
NIC | 56.50 | 67.73 | +19.9% | BUY

StanChart | 300.00 | 243.39 | -18.9% | SELL
Barclays | 17.95 | 15.05 | -16.2% | SELL

KCB | 41.50 | 47.00 | +13.3% | HOLD
Equity | 36.00 | 39.29 | +9.1% | HOLD
Co-op Bank | 16.70 | 18.00 | +7.8% | HOLD
DTB | 166.00 | 166.89 | +0.5% | HOLD

I&M Holdings | Fair Price | 111.87 ;-) BUY

Source: Standard Investment Bank, 05.06.2013


CFC, the journey to 95/- is ON. 70/- has printed today smile


The way I had been targeting this counter.Only problem I have with it is the timing and the recommendation.


Mate, it pays “being in the market” as opposed to “timing the market”


"No, I don’t believe in market timing. I’ve been around this business darn near a half-century, and I know I can’t do it successfully.– In fact, I don’t even know anyone who knows anyone who has ever successfully timed the market over the long term." Jack Bogle
symbols
#42 Posted : Monday, June 10, 2013 4:22:30 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 3/19/2013
Posts: 2,552
mwekez@ji wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
symbols wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
Bank | Share price | Fair value | Return | Rating

CFC | 62.50 | 95.05 | +52.1% | BUY
NIC | 56.50 | 67.73 | +19.9% | BUY

StanChart | 300.00 | 243.39 | -18.9% | SELL
Barclays | 17.95 | 15.05 | -16.2% | SELL

KCB | 41.50 | 47.00 | +13.3% | HOLD
Equity | 36.00 | 39.29 | +9.1% | HOLD
Co-op Bank | 16.70 | 18.00 | +7.8% | HOLD
DTB | 166.00 | 166.89 | +0.5% | HOLD

I&M Holdings | Fair Price | 111.87 ;-) BUY

Source: Standard Investment Bank, 05.06.2013


CFC, the journey to 95/- is ON. 70/- has printed today smile


The way I had been targeting this counter.Only problem I have with it is the timing and the recommendation.


Mate, it pays “being in the market” as opposed to “timing the market”


"No, I don’t believe in market timing. I’ve been around this business darn near a half-century, and I know I can’t do it successfully.– In fact, I don’t even know anyone who knows anyone who has ever successfully timed the market over the long term." Jack Bogle


Time is money
Metasploit
#43 Posted : Monday, June 10, 2013 4:41:17 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 985
Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
mwekez@ji wrote:


Very unfitting headings those.

Banking sector has been rated HOLD and not SELL. Most counters still have headroom albeit small. CFC has huge headroom.

Also, government is not crowding out private lending. Government is on a monetary easing cycle. Check 91day paper is a low 6.721%. …. And soon, government will be offering a euro bond.


That is deliberate shakeout.
I have yesterday's standard paper on the Treasury's Minister's interview.
He pointed it out clearly that Jubilee will put focus on Monetary easing to stimulate the economic.

“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
mwekez@ji
#44 Posted : Monday, June 10, 2013 4:57:15 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
symbols wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
symbols wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
Bank | Share price | Fair value | Return | Rating

CFC | 62.50 | 95.05 | +52.1% | BUY
NIC | 56.50 | 67.73 | +19.9% | BUY

StanChart | 300.00 | 243.39 | -18.9% | SELL
Barclays | 17.95 | 15.05 | -16.2% | SELL

KCB | 41.50 | 47.00 | +13.3% | HOLD
Equity | 36.00 | 39.29 | +9.1% | HOLD
Co-op Bank | 16.70 | 18.00 | +7.8% | HOLD
DTB | 166.00 | 166.89 | +0.5% | HOLD

I&M Holdings | Fair Price | 111.87 ;-) BUY

Source: Standard Investment Bank, 05.06.2013


CFC, the journey to 95/- is ON. 70/- has printed today smile


The way I had been targeting this counter.Only problem I have with it is the timing and the recommendation.


Mate, it pays “being in the market” as opposed to “timing the market”


"No, I don’t believe in market timing. I’ve been around this business darn near a half-century, and I know I can’t do it successfully.– In fact, I don’t even know anyone who knows anyone who has ever successfully timed the market over the long term." Jack Bogle


Time is money


Time is money. &over time, those who dont time the market make much more
mwekez@ji
#45 Posted : Monday, June 10, 2013 5:01:24 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
Metasploit wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:


Very unfitting headings those.

Banking sector has been rated HOLD and not SELL. Most counters still have headroom albeit small. CFC has huge headroom.

Also, government is not crowding out private lending. Government is on a monetary easing cycle. Check 91day paper is a low 6.721%. …. And soon, government will be offering a euro bond.


That is deliberate shakeout.
I have yesterday's standard paper on the Treasury's Minister's interview.
He pointed it out clearly that Jubilee will put focus on Monetary easing to stimulate the economic.


cheers cc @the_deal
symbols
#46 Posted : Tuesday, June 11, 2013 1:33:03 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 3/19/2013
Posts: 2,552
mwekez@ji wrote:
symbols wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
symbols wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
Bank | Share price | Fair value | Return | Rating

CFC | 62.50 | 95.05 | +52.1% | BUY
NIC | 56.50 | 67.73 | +19.9% | BUY

StanChart | 300.00 | 243.39 | -18.9% | SELL
Barclays | 17.95 | 15.05 | -16.2% | SELL

KCB | 41.50 | 47.00 | +13.3% | HOLD
Equity | 36.00 | 39.29 | +9.1% | HOLD
Co-op Bank | 16.70 | 18.00 | +7.8% | HOLD
DTB | 166.00 | 166.89 | +0.5% | HOLD

I&M Holdings | Fair Price | 111.87 ;-) BUY

Source: Standard Investment Bank, 05.06.2013


CFC, the journey to 95/- is ON. 70/- has printed today smile


The way I had been targeting this counter.Only problem I have with it is the timing and the recommendation.


Mate, it pays “being in the market” as opposed to “timing the market”


"No, I don’t believe in market timing. I’ve been around this business darn near a half-century, and I know I can’t do it successfully.– In fact, I don’t even know anyone who knows anyone who has ever successfully timed the market over the long term." Jack Bogle


Time is money


Time is money. &over time, those who dont time the market make much more


I'm not disputing the benefits of patience in a market but I've come to appreciate the opportunity presented by market timing.
mwekez@ji
#47 Posted : Tuesday, June 11, 2013 11:26:54 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
symbols wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
symbols wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
symbols wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
Bank | Share price | Fair value | Return | Rating

CFC | 62.50 | 95.05 | +52.1% | BUY
NIC | 56.50 | 67.73 | +19.9% | BUY

StanChart | 300.00 | 243.39 | -18.9% | SELL
Barclays | 17.95 | 15.05 | -16.2% | SELL

KCB | 41.50 | 47.00 | +13.3% | HOLD
Equity | 36.00 | 39.29 | +9.1% | HOLD
Co-op Bank | 16.70 | 18.00 | +7.8% | HOLD
DTB | 166.00 | 166.89 | +0.5% | HOLD

I&M Holdings | Fair Price | 111.87 ;-) BUY

Source: Standard Investment Bank, 05.06.2013


CFC, the journey to 95/- is ON. 70/- has printed today smile


The way I had been targeting this counter.Only problem I have with it is the timing and the recommendation.


Mate, it pays “being in the market” as opposed to “timing the market”


"No, I don’t believe in market timing. I’ve been around this business darn near a half-century, and I know I can’t do it successfully.– In fact, I don’t even know anyone who knows anyone who has ever successfully timed the market over the long term." Jack Bogle


Time is money


Time is money. &over time, those who dont time the market make much more


I'm not disputing the benefits of patience in a market but I've come to appreciate the opportunity presented by market timing.


According to you, what is the appropriate time for CFC?
mwekez@ji
#48 Posted : Wednesday, June 26, 2013 5:33:31 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
Bank assets grows to Sh2.5 trillion in May 2013


The banking sector grew with assets rising 16 per cent to Sh2.5 trillion last month, from Sh2.2 trillion recorded in May 2012.

Central Bank records show the sector's deposits increased by 15 per cent from Sh1.6 trillion in May 2012 to Sh1.9 trillion at the end of May 2013.

Mukiri
#49 Posted : Wednesday, June 26, 2013 7:34:51 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2012
Posts: 5,222
mwekez@ji wrote:
symbols wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
symbols wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
symbols wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
Bank | Share price | Fair value | Return | Rating

CFC | 62.50 | 95.05 | +52.1% | BUY
NIC | 56.50 | 67.73 | +19.9% | BUY

StanChart | 300.00 | 243.39 | -18.9% | SELL
Barclays | 17.95 | 15.05 | -16.2% | SELL

KCB | 41.50 | 47.00 | +13.3% | HOLD
Equity | 36.00 | 39.29 | +9.1% | HOLD
Co-op Bank | 16.70 | 18.00 | +7.8% | HOLD
DTB | 166.00 | 166.89 | +0.5% | HOLD

I&M Holdings | Fair Price | 111.87 ;-) BUY

Source: Standard Investment Bank, 05.06.2013


CFC, the journey to 95/- is ON. 70/- has printed today smile


The way I had been targeting this counter.Only problem I have with it is the timing and the recommendation.


Mate, it pays “being in the market” as opposed to “timing the market”


"No, I don’t believe in market timing. I’ve been around this business darn near a half-century, and I know I can’t do it successfully.– In fact, I don’t even know anyone who knows anyone who has ever successfully timed the market over the long term." Jack Bogle


Time is money


Time is money. &over time, those who dont time the market make much more


I'm not disputing the benefits of patience in a market but I've come to appreciate the opportunity presented by market timing.


According to you, what is the appropriate time for CFC?

Isn't KCB CURRENTLY more attractive than CFC?

Proverbs 19:21
symbols
#50 Posted : Wednesday, June 26, 2013 8:06:02 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 3/19/2013
Posts: 2,552
Mukiri wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
symbols wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
symbols wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
symbols wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
Bank | Share price | Fair value | Return | Rating

CFC | 62.50 | 95.05 | +52.1% | BUY
NIC | 56.50 | 67.73 | +19.9% | BUY

StanChart | 300.00 | 243.39 | -18.9% | SELL
Barclays | 17.95 | 15.05 | -16.2% | SELL

KCB | 41.50 | 47.00 | +13.3% | HOLD
Equity | 36.00 | 39.29 | +9.1% | HOLD
Co-op Bank | 16.70 | 18.00 | +7.8% | HOLD
DTB | 166.00 | 166.89 | +0.5% | HOLD

I&M Holdings | Fair Price | 111.87 ;-) BUY

Source: Standard Investment Bank, 05.06.2013


CFC, the journey to 95/- is ON. 70/- has printed today smile


The way I had been targeting this counter.Only problem I have with it is the timing and the recommendation.


Mate, it pays “being in the market” as opposed to “timing the market”


"No, I don’t believe in market timing. I’ve been around this business darn near a half-century, and I know I can’t do it successfully.– In fact, I don’t even know anyone who knows anyone who has ever successfully timed the market over the long term." Jack Bogle


Time is money


Time is money. &over time, those who dont time the market make much more


I'm not disputing the benefits of patience in a market but I've come to appreciate the opportunity presented by market timing.


According to you, what is the appropriate time for CFC?

Isn't KCB CURRENTLY more attractive than CFC?


In what way?
mwekez@ji
#51 Posted : Thursday, June 27, 2013 8:57:37 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
symbols wrote:
Mukiri wrote:
Isn't KCB CURRENTLY more attractive than CFC?


In what way?

The optimist
#52 Posted : Friday, June 28, 2013 3:03:16 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/14/2010
Posts: 521
Location: Nairobi
At least things are heading North for CFC today
youcan'tstopusnow
#53 Posted : Saturday, July 06, 2013 12:02:42 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
Has Equity Bank suffered a systems failure, for a whole week? Customers ni wengi sana ama? And JM usually brags that the system can absorb way more than the current 7m. People seething online, expectedly.

Those H1 numbers better be goodLaughing out loudly
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
mwekez@ji
#54 Posted : Saturday, July 06, 2013 2:18:17 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
Has Equity Bank suffered a systems failure, for a whole week? Customers ni wengi sana ama? And JM usually brags that the system can absorb way more than the current 7m. People seething online, expectedly.

Those H1 numbers better be goodLaughing out loudly


Interestingly I&M its all systems go (with top notch customer service), but H1 earnings growth expectations > Sad
hisah
#55 Posted : Sunday, July 07, 2013 5:13:01 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
Has Equity Bank suffered a systems failure, for a whole week? Customers ni wengi sana ama? And JM usually brags that the system can absorb way more than the current 7m. People seething online, expectedly.

Those H1 numbers better be goodLaughing out loudly

Shoddy PR by member. That ATM breakdown is unacceptable without management giving an indication when to expect the issue to be sorted out...

http://www.nation.co.ke/.../-/4ffk3cz/-/index.html

$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
youcan'tstopusnow
#56 Posted : Sunday, July 07, 2013 10:05:42 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
hisah wrote:
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
Has Equity Bank suffered a systems failure, for a whole week? Customers ni wengi sana ama? And JM usually brags that the system can absorb way more than the current 7m. People seething online, expectedly.

Those H1 numbers better be goodLaughing out loudly

Shoddy PR by member. That ATM breakdown is unacceptable without management giving an indication when to expect the issue to be sorted out...

http://www.nation.co.ke/.../-/4ffk3cz/-/index.html



It was not ATM's alone. Even withdrawal from the counter. Plus guys being told to fill multiple forms in order to deposit cash.
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
VituVingiSana
#57 Posted : Sunday, July 07, 2013 11:08:27 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,124
Location: Nairobi
mwekez@ji wrote:
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
Has Equity Bank suffered a systems failure, for a whole week? Customers ni wengi sana ama? And JM usually brags that the system can absorb way more than the current 7m. People seething online, expectedly.

Those H1 numbers better be goodLaughing out loudly


Interestingly I&M its all systems go (with top notch customer service), but H1 earnings growth expectations > Sad
1Q 2013 was poor (well, below 1Q 2012) but 2Q is expected to be better.

Mauritius made a Rs 100mn [KES 250mn] loss on derivatives/contracts. The EO [Sarit Shah] said these were Mark-To-Market. He did not explicitly say so but there may be some [not all] reversals. That said, the loss is a loss.

Kenya: Slow. Slow. Slow. The bank had reduced lending [the deposits grew] in 1Q as customers reduced spending/investing/borrowing/trading. The EO said the pipeline going into 2Q was good & loans have picked up. I expect 3Q [not 2Q] to see more lending.

Rwanda: They seem pleased.

Tanzania: A poor 2012. Not sure of the (detailed) reasons. No idea how 1Q 2013 was seeing they do not break out the reasons.

The next time to ask these questions is during the EGM coz no AGM this year for I&M Holdings shareholders. I expect an EGM for the following reasons
1) To get the shareholders to 1,000 the firm of Biashara Securities will be dissolved and shares distributed.
2) To change the year from July to December. This may not be necessary but it makes sense.

All that said, I don't mind it dropping to 80-ish coz it is a good buy.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#58 Posted : Sunday, July 07, 2013 11:10:06 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,124
Location: Nairobi
Damn! What's happening with Member? Narok, ATMs, etc ... all are IT problems!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
jerry
#59 Posted : Sunday, July 07, 2013 12:47:00 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/29/2006
Posts: 2,570
VituVingiSana wrote:
Damn! What's happening with Member? Narok, ATMs, etc ... all are IT problems!

I hear salary sent to Memba on 27th last month wasn't accessible as at yesterday. I&M gives interim dividend for "year ending July 2013". I now get why it's not final for the year!
The opposite of courage is not cowardice, it's conformity.
VituVingiSana
#60 Posted : Sunday, July 07, 2013 7:35:00 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,124
Location: Nairobi
jerry wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Damn! What's happening with Member? Narok, ATMs, etc ... all are IT problems!

I hear salary sent to Memba on 27th last month wasn't accessible as at yesterday. I&M gives interim dividend for "year ending July 2013". I now get why it's not final for the year!
Damn! That is crazy. Imagine you can't pay your Landlord, stima, etc!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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