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Coop Bank - Stocksmaster's 1st Play 2013
Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,515 Location: nairobi
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cooperative bank stock fair value for me is KES 17. having left the HFCK bus that was crusing at dangerous speeds, I am now strategically re-invested in the Kingdom Bank for a second time having bought some in 2008 for KES 5.8 and sold in 2010 for KES 18.5.. @wazuans what is your fair value based on your personal assumptions?
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 12/21/2011 Posts: 1,010
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how far down is this going?
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2012 Posts: 5,222
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obiero wrote:cooperative bank stock fair value for me is KES 17. having left the HFCK bus that was crusing at dangerous speeds, I am now strategically re-invested in the Kingdom Bank for a second time having bought some in 2008 for KES 5.8 and sold in 2010 for KES 18.5.. @wazuans what is your fair value based on your personal assumptions? What price was this you left HFCK at?
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/21/2013 Posts: 427
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,684 Location: NAIROBI
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Co-op bank will report stellar results this year and might even overtake stanchart in terms of profitability to take the number 4 slot. The bank has closed on the following deals in the real estate market as the project financier; --Shujaa Mall along New kangundo rd where Nakumatt is the anchor tenant ---Zuri Center in Thika where Nakumatt Thika has already set shop ---Blue Bells Apartments in Syokimau/Mlolongo;a real estate project by Safaricom Sacco comprising of 180 3 bedroom and 120 2 bedroom apartments Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,515 Location: nairobi
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Mukiri wrote:obiero wrote:cooperative bank stock fair value for me is KES 17. having left the HFCK bus that was crusing at dangerous speeds, I am now strategically re-invested in the Kingdom Bank for a second time having bought some in 2008 for KES 5.8 and sold in 2010 for KES 18.5.. @wazuans what is your fair value based on your personal assumptions? What price was this you left HFCK at? Left HFCK at KES 22.50
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2008 Posts: 1,438
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Ericsson, perhaps you might want to give us a range for profit growth thereby elaborating further on what you mean by stellar results. I think Coop may not manage more than 20-25% (this would still be impressive) growth in PAT this year for the following reasons: 1.The greenfield operation in South Sudan is likely to depress profits in the short run due to the set-up costs for which there will be no immediate return. 2.In 2011, Coop had a disastrous year, hence in 2012, the results were a lot higher than 2011. In 2012 Coop therefore had the benefit of coming off a low base, which flattered their results. It will not be the case this year. 3. The rebate on taxes (5 years from the listing date) that CoopBank has been enjoying will soon come to an end, if not in 2013, then certainly in 2014. Ericsson wrote:Co-op bank will report stellar results this year and might even overtake stanchart in terms of profitability to take the number 4 slot.
The bank has closed on the following deals in the real estate market as the project financier;
--Shujaa Mall along New kangundo rd where Nakumatt is the anchor tenant
---Zuri Center in Thika where Nakumatt Thika has already set shop
---Blue Bells Apartments in Syokimau/Mlolongo;a real estate project by Safaricom Sacco comprising of 180 3 bedroom and 120 2 bedroom apartments
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,684 Location: NAIROBI
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The projects mentioned constitute the core activity of a bank which is to lend money and make a profit via interest rate charged. The rebate year begins to take effect in 2014 FY so thats when the 30% takes effect. A 20% growth in profit means the bank will have clocked 12B Pre-tax profit. The depressed profits from south sudan operation can be overcome by the share of associate profit from CIC. A 12b profit is a gain of more than 2B from the previous year Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2008 Posts: 1,438
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It looks like we are generally in agreement that CoopBank will post some growth in their profits. The difference is that I am not bullish with regard to the quantum of growth. While you expect stellar results, I expect moderate growth. I actually think my estimate might actually be on the higher side.
Note that CoopBank's EPS in Q1 2012 was a rather high Kshs 0.56 while the full year's EPS works out to an average of Kshs 0.46. This declines to 43 cents when you take out Q1 results from the equation. To generate 20% growth in EPS in Q1 2013 vis-a-vis 2012, they will need to have made 67 cents in Q1. Methinks, they will not manage it, but we will see. They will probably improve in other quarters, but we will probably start off the year with some disappointments.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,684 Location: NAIROBI
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Most counters will start off with some disappointments in the first quarter extending to the first half due to the general election. Business was very low due to the cautious approach taken Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,103 Location: Nairobi
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Well... Coop Bank might just see another Shs 25,000,000 in income/recoveries! http://www.businessdaily...6/-/152pfwi/-/index.htmlGreedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/29/2006 Posts: 2,570
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[quote=VituVingiSana]Well... Coop Bank might just see another Shs 25,000,000 in income/recoveries! http://www.businessdaily.../-/152pfwi/-/index.html[/quote] This is welcome payback in a Jubilee year! The opposite of courage is not cowardice, it's conformity.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,220 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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 @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 12/21/2011 Posts: 1,010
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THIS How will it affect the share price?
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Rank: Member Joined: 4/25/2012 Posts: 110
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wilyum wrote:THIS How will it affect the share price? This boosts confidence in the value of the share, a similar effect accrued when a company's CEO owns a considerable share in the company. The expected effect of this action is to either move the share price up or support it from dips; it is not the only factor to consider. There is nothing as dangerous as an Idea, when there is only one Idea
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/18/2006 Posts: 131
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Well, well, well. @stocksmaster, what is happening here? Should we wait for this bus at 15 or what?
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/26/2006 Posts: 404 Location: CENTRAL PROVINCE
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kazee wrote:Well, well, well. @stocksmaster, what is happening here? Should we wait for this bus at 15 or what? The Q1 2013 results will be indicative of the direction this share will take in the short term. If it can achieve the approx. 20% rise in earnings the rest of the tier 1 banks seem to be doing, then a 10% short term upside potential is possible. However, a flat Q1 2013 may grant your wish of Ksh 15. Happy hunting.
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Rank: Member Joined: 2/18/2011 Posts: 448
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@stocksmaster thanks for the co-op tip, got in but thinking abt getting a second counter.what do you think abt pan Africa insuarance? Do you see price rising in light of sanlam take over?
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Rank: Member Joined: 2/16/2013 Posts: 123 Location: MSA
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stocksmaster wrote:kazee wrote:SittingPretty wrote:tuvok wrote:It appears everyone was reading this... Indeed, looks like you can take @Stocksmasters word to the bank! Sold KQ on thursday albeit at loss and boarded COOP, no regrets! Whoever the fellow is  The reverse gear on coop and Centum has been as fast as the forward gear was. They are on such a slippery slide today. Lets see what happens from tomorrow after the mad selling is over today Shares seem to obey Sigmund Freud's theory of Psychosexual development........if u miss a developmental stage in life, you have to revisit it later. The coop bank rally yesterday was too swift and hence the Ksh 17-17.90 range was avoided and is now being revisited. Happy hunting. Timely advice is as lovely as golden apples in a silver basket. Proverbs 25:11
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Coop Bank - Stocksmaster's 1st Play 2013
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