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FULL YEAR 2012 BANKING SECTOR VALUATION
mwekez@ji
#21 Posted : Saturday, March 09, 2013 7:58:07 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
CFC: VWAP KES 60, P/E 6x, P/B 0.87, ROA 2.1, ROE 11%, ROaA 3.1%, ROaE (excl. goodwill) 21.6%, Gross NPL/Loans 1.9%
the deal
#22 Posted : Saturday, March 09, 2013 8:12:28 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
mwekez@ji wrote:
CFC: VWAP KES 60, P/E 6x, P/B 0.87, ROA 2.1, ROE 11%, ROaA 3.1%, ROaE (excl. goodwill) 21.6%, Gross NPL/Loans 1.9%

Even a crazy rally to KES60...its still the cheapest stock in the banking sector.
mwekez@ji
#23 Posted : Saturday, March 09, 2013 8:20:29 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
the deal wrote:
HF was never a bank, its only now that theyre being allowed to operate current accounts. The low RoE and RoA is due to cost of funds. The big banks i.e Equity Bank and KCB can get cheap deposits from their vast customer networks and lend at crazy prices thus enjoying better margins which the mid tier banks can only dream off.


Give us the comparative numbers for Equity Bank and KCB on the following metric to support your statement above:

1.Average interest on loans
2.Average interest expense
3.Spread

For HF,

2012
Average interest on loans 14.16%
Average interest expense 10.01%
Spread 4.14%

2011
Average interest on loans 11.54%
Average interest expense 4.55%
Spread 6.99%

2010
Average interest on loans 11.39%
Average interest expense 4.98%
Spread 6.42%


mwekez@ji
#24 Posted : Saturday, March 09, 2013 8:30:08 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
the deal wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
CFC: VWAP KES 60, P/E 6x, P/B 0.87, ROA 2.1, ROE 11%, ROaA 3.1%, ROaE (excl. goodwill) 21.6%, Gross NPL/Loans 1.9%

Even a crazy rally to KES60...its still the cheapest stock in the banking sector.


FY 12 growth was stellar courtesy of Non Interest Revenue. The performance of Net Interest Income, Loan book, and customer deposit book lagged. Whats your projected bottom line growth in FY 2013?
the deal
#25 Posted : Saturday, March 09, 2013 8:38:27 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
mwekez@ji wrote:
the deal wrote:
HF was never a bank, its only now that theyre being allowed to operate current accounts. The low RoE and RoA is due to cost of funds. The big banks i.e Equity Bank and KCB can get cheap deposits from their vast customer networks and lend at crazy prices thus enjoying better margins which the mid tier banks can only dream off.


Give us the comparative numbers for Equity Bank and KCB on the following metric to support your statement above:

1.Average interest on loans
2.Average interest expense
3.Spread

For HF,

2012
Average interest on loans 14.16%
Average interest expense 10.01%
Spread 4.14%

2011
Average interest on loans 11.54%
Average interest expense 4.55%
Spread 6.99%

2010
Average interest on loans 11.39%
Average interest expense 4.98%
Spread 6.42%



I will give you the figures for Equity Bank.

Net Interest Margin

2012-13%

2011-11.6%

2010-11.9%

Source: Equity Bank Investor Briefing 2012.

I hope its clear now.
mwekez@ji
#26 Posted : Saturday, March 09, 2013 8:41:40 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
the deal wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
the deal wrote:
HF was never a bank, its only now that theyre being allowed to operate current accounts. The low RoE and RoA is due to cost of funds. The big banks i.e Equity Bank and KCB can get cheap deposits from their vast customer networks and lend at crazy prices thus enjoying better margins which the mid tier banks can only dream off.


Give us the comparative numbers for Equity Bank and KCB on the following metric to support your statement above:

1.Average interest on loans
2.Average interest expense
3.Spread

For HF,

2012
Average interest on loans 14.16%
Average interest expense 10.01%
Spread 4.14%

2011
Average interest on loans 11.54%
Average interest expense 4.55%
Spread 6.99%

2010
Average interest on loans 11.39%
Average interest expense 4.98%
Spread 6.42%



I will give you the figures for Equity Bank.

Net Interest Margin

2012-13%

2011-11.6%

2010-11.9%

Source: Equity Bank Investor Briefing 2012.

I hope its clear now.


For KCB are welcomed. ... The Equity Bank's margin looks crazy
Aguytrying
#27 Posted : Saturday, March 09, 2013 8:44:21 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
@Yscun. Fantastic thread. #getting back to bizness.

HF is hands down the best bargain.
NIC looks interesting too. the only other that id consider due to its valuation.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
youcan'tstopusnow
#28 Posted : Saturday, March 09, 2013 12:23:49 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
mwekezaji, I get you. I think HF+Equity provides a good mix of exposure to the banking sector

NB: Equity Bank books closure Friday 15th March
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
mwekez@ji
#29 Posted : Saturday, March 09, 2013 12:44:11 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
Tier I banks truly have a huge a advantage in maintaining higher interest rates on loans than Tier II banks yet their cost of customer deposits is much lower than that of Tier II. The Tier I Banks interest rate spread are multiples more than those of Tier II Banks:


2012

HFCK
Average interest on loans 14.16%
Average interest expense 10.01%
Spread 4.14%

NIC
Average interest on loans 13.63%
Average interest expense 6.90%
Spread 6.74%

KCB
Average interest on loans 16.05%
Average interest expense 3.90%
Spread 12.15%

Equity Bank
Average interest on loans 20.25%
Average interest expense 3.12%
Spread 17.13%


2011

HFCK
Average interest on loans 11.54%
Average interest expense 4.55%
Spread 6.99%

NIC
Average interest on loans 10.62%
Average interest expense 3.65%
Spread 6.98%

KCB
Average interest on loans 11.88%
Average interest expense 1.47%
Spread 10.41%


Equity Bank
Average interest on loans 14.57%
Average interest expense 1.52%
Spread 13.05%

Note to Wazua admin >>> pls add a feature allowing posting of ms excel sheets/table
mwekez@ji
#30 Posted : Saturday, March 09, 2013 12:54:34 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
mwekezaji, I get you. I think HF+Equity provides a good mix of exposure to the banking sector

NB: Equity Bank books closure Friday 15th March


smile (one Tier II + one Tier I) HF + Equity it is. Already in HF and have put eyes on Equity. NIC + KCB is another combo worth a thought at the right price
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