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Stocksmaster.............1st Quarter Strategy
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Ali Baba
#21 Posted : Monday, December 31, 2012 7:00:59 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 8/29/2008
Posts: 573
GURU267:>>You are buying USD!! I can't believe it.If the US debt crisis is not resolved,you will still end the Zim way.Americans are buying GOLD.And land......
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Mukiri
#22 Posted : Monday, December 31, 2012 7:56:57 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2012
Posts: 5,222
Ali Baba wrote:
GURU267:>>You are buying USD!! I can't believe it.If the US debt crisis is not resolved,you will still end the Zim way.Americans are buying GOLD.And land......


A twist in the tale, maybe Euros are what one should be buying. And while we are it, I hope 'hold cash' refers to a short-term FDR

Proverbs 19:21
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Hunderwear
#23 Posted : Monday, December 31, 2012 7:59:58 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 4/14/2011
Posts: 639
The discovery of oil in kenya changes alot of theseassumptions.This is because US cannot afford not to benefit from the party.They were late for the party and wont try any stupid move else China wil have a laugh all the way.Sanctions wont work as China wil happily ignore them.As such Zim way is a far dream whichever team wins.However the perception created wil definately offer investors yet another buying opportunity.Am waiting for the dip before elections and plunge into stocks.My only prayer is whoever loses accepts our verdict and we will have peace!!!!!
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mwania
#24 Posted : Monday, December 31, 2012 8:35:43 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 10/29/2007
Posts: 76
Oil: Will not have major effect on USD/ KES exchange rates before production starts in 2017 or thereabout..
US Fiscal Cliff: I doubt that it will make the USD mimick the Zim one!
A mix of all these things will help reduce the risk, USD, EUR, Stocks, Real Estate but you cannot keep lots of KSHS in the period before and immediately after elections regardless who wins.
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obiero
#25 Posted : Monday, December 31, 2012 9:03:26 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 14,477
Location: nairobi
@stocksmaster is slipping (sic) on the job. my guy, you have failed to consider expected strong posting of full year PBT results by some companies read financial sector and resultant good dividend announcements such as the assured ones from KCB and HFCK that will ring fence even the fearful foreigners.
COOP 306,100 ABP 31.96, KEGN 112,100 ABP 10.64, MTNU 131,000 ABP 10.21
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sentinel prime
#26 Posted : Monday, December 31, 2012 10:14:27 PM
Rank: New-farer

Joined: 11/12/2012
Posts: 92
great analysis @stocksmaster.

however I believe the elections will be peaceful and if uhuru wins I expect him to be exonerated as long as he sings to Obama's tunes....si hata kagame is free.

anybody remembers how the market rallied from 4500- 5800 in 2008 after the pact?

yep...some blind optimism may return.

but who knows what the foreigners will do? what if the US markets sell off?
will there be an excuse to dump their stake coz of political instability.
remember how in 2009 our market continued to tank as the US markets were having a rally of a lifetime ...I picked the cue and plunged and reaped handsomely.

the correlation between world markets is astonishing...albeit with some lag...the divergence trades are great ...this are my ramblings...but I'm not sober at the moment.
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guru267
#27 Posted : Monday, December 31, 2012 11:01:16 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
Ali Baba wrote:
GURU267:>>You are buying USD!! I can't believe it.If the US debt crisis is not resolved,you will still end the Zim way.Americans are buying GOLD.And land......


@Ali Baba lets me take you through economics 101..

Fiscal cliff = higher taxes & lower spending = austerity = lower deficit = stronger USD!

So if the fiscal cliff does materialize i laugh all the way to my $ account! smile
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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murchr
#28 Posted : Monday, December 31, 2012 11:41:44 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
Mr. Market hates Uncertainty, that is what the country is facing.
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
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BGL
#29 Posted : Monday, December 31, 2012 11:46:23 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 10/11/2009
Posts: 1,223
Me, i will keep on investing in stocks. I am optimistic that whichever way the country takes in march 2013 i have no control. Democracy=power of many and i do not subscribe to that notion. When i have a choice to make i do not choose people because they are popular but because they can perform.

I will focus on blue chips (as investors) exit and on non-listed companies. You never know, the market may hold and accelerate after march.

History will not remember you for your IQ. It will remember you for what you did. “Genius is 1 percent inspiration, 99 percent perspiration.” Thomas Edison
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ChessMaster
#30 Posted : Tuesday, January 01, 2013 6:59:11 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/23/2009
Posts: 1,626
guru267 wrote:
Ali Baba wrote:
GURU267:>>You are buying USD!! I can't believe it.If the US debt crisis is not resolved,you will still end the Zim way.Americans are buying GOLD.And land......


@Ali Baba lets me take you through economics 101..

Fiscal cliff = higher taxes & lower spending = austerity = lower deficit = stronger USD!

So if the fiscal cliff does materialize i laugh all the way to my $ account! smile


Lower GDP,investments,higher unemployment,entitlements-It could spark a recession which would still further raise the value of dollar.
Uncertainty is certain.Let go
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