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Longhorn Listing
bird_man
#41 Posted : Wednesday, May 30, 2012 9:53:18 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/2/2006
Posts: 1,206
Location: Nairobi
As per link...."Newly listed shares are expected to fluctuate beyond the ten per cent share price change limit on the first day of trading, to help the market establish a valuation for new stocks.".....

Have they talked about it going down by 10%?
Formally employed people often live their employers' dream & forget about their own.
VituVingiSana
#42 Posted : Wednesday, May 30, 2012 11:05:21 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,129
Location: Nairobi
FT Nyammo - The man behind the collapsed Kenya Finance Bank
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
jerry
#43 Posted : Wednesday, May 30, 2012 11:10:18 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/29/2006
Posts: 2,570
bird_man wrote:
As per link...."Newly listed shares are expected to fluctuate beyond the ten per cent share price change limit on the first day of trading, to help the market establish a valuation for new stocks.".....

Have they talked about it going down by 10%?

Ask in another way. Is the 10% rule not applicable or it's just superflus! info?
The opposite of courage is not cowardice, it's conformity.
VituVingiSana
#44 Posted : Wednesday, May 30, 2012 11:17:11 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,129
Location: Nairobi
So Longhorn made a LOSS for 1Q FY 2012 (1st July - 30 Sep 2012) per the audited information in the IM
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Cde Monomotapa
#45 Posted : Wednesday, May 30, 2012 11:53:16 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Political control over FPE funds is coming to a close shortly. Remember that.
FUNKY
#46 Posted : Wednesday, May 30, 2012 2:15:23 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/30/2010
Posts: 1,635
hisah
#47 Posted : Wednesday, May 30, 2012 2:25:34 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
FUNKY wrote:
http://af.reuters.com/article/kenyaNews/idAFL5E8GU5F020120530

I've got a sneaky feeling this thing will follow the tranny (TCL) path. We will see by end of June if it won't be below the listing price. But due to the limited share volume, the slid will be in slow motion.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
PKoli
#48 Posted : Wednesday, May 30, 2012 3:50:22 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/10/2007
Posts: 1,587
hisah wrote:
FUNKY wrote:
http://af.reuters.com/article/kenyaNews/idAFL5E8GU5F020120530

I've got a sneaky feeling this thing will follow the tranny (TCL) path. We will see by end of June if it won't be below the listing price. But due to the limited share volume, the slid will be in slow motion.

I share your sendiments
guru267
#49 Posted : Wednesday, May 30, 2012 7:48:17 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
hisah wrote:
FUNKY wrote:
http://af.reuters.com/article/kenyaNews/idAFL5E8GU5F020120530

I've got a sneaky feeling this thing will follow the tranny (TCL) path. We will see by end of June if it won't be below the listing price. But due to the limited share volume, the slid will be in slow motion.


This thinking is hugely flawed...

TCL was an expensive stock listing during a bear market..

LONHORN is a cheap stock listing during a market rally..
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
hisah
#50 Posted : Wednesday, May 30, 2012 7:53:14 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
guru267 wrote:
hisah wrote:
FUNKY wrote:
http://af.reuters.com/article/kenyaNews/idAFL5E8GU5F020120530

I've got a sneaky feeling this thing will follow the tranny (TCL) path. We will see by end of June if it won't be below the listing price. But due to the limited share volume, the slid will be in slow motion.


This thinking is hugely flawed...

TCL was an expensive stock listing during a bear market..

LONHORN is a cheap stock listing during a market rally..

My thinking is, this thing is being listed when profits have doubled. Can this feat be repeated? And for how long?
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
guru267
#51 Posted : Wednesday, May 30, 2012 8:05:15 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
hisah wrote:
guru267 wrote:
hisah wrote:
FUNKY wrote:
http://af.reuters.com/article/kenyaNews/idAFL5E8GU5F020120530

I've got a sneaky feeling this thing will follow the tranny (TCL) path. We will see by end of June if it won't be below the listing price. But due to the limited share volume, the slid will be in slow motion.


This thinking is hugely flawed...

TCL was an expensive stock listing during a bear market..

LONHORN is a cheap stock listing during a market rally..

My thinking is, this thing is being listed when profits have doubled. Can this feat be repeated? And for how long?


You said it would follow the path of TCL.. I find it unlikely LONHORN will lose more than 50% of its value post listing..

TCL, BRIT, FCBK are tanking because of crazy PE ratios.. That is something longhorn lacks...

Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
youcan'tstopusnow
#52 Posted : Wednesday, May 30, 2012 8:57:43 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
guru, that (low PE) may well change when they release their next set of results. Read VVS' post at the top of this page
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
VituVingiSana
#53 Posted : Wednesday, May 30, 2012 10:36:47 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,129
Location: Nairobi
hisah wrote:
guru267 wrote:
hisah wrote:
FUNKY wrote:
http://af.reuters.com/article/kenyaNews/idAFL5E8GU5F020120530

I've got a sneaky feeling this thing will follow the tranny (TCL) path. We will see by end of June if it won't be below the listing price. But due to the limited share volume, the slid will be in slow motion.


This thinking is hugely flawed...

TCL was an expensive stock listing during a bear market..

LONHORN is a cheap stock listing during a market rally..

My thinking is, this thing is being listed when profits have doubled. Can this feat be repeated? And for how long?
Revenue in 2011 vs 2012 was 2x. The PAT was 5x. Much higher bar there.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
mwekez@ji
#54 Posted : Wednesday, May 30, 2012 11:43:30 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
VituVingiSana wrote:
hisah wrote:
guru267 wrote:
hisah wrote:
FUNKY wrote:
http://af.reuters.com/article/kenyaNews/idAFL5E8GU5F020120530

I've got a sneaky feeling this thing will follow the tranny (TCL) path. We will see by end of June if it won't be below the listing price. But due to the limited share volume, the slid will be in slow motion.


This thinking is hugely flawed...

TCL was an expensive stock listing during a bear market..

LONHORN is a cheap stock listing during a market rally..

My thinking is, this thing is being listed when profits have doubled. Can this feat be repeated? And for how long?
Revenue in 2011 vs 2012 was 2x. The PAT was 5x. Much higher bar there.


Unsustainable income!

Material contracts (page 61 of IM)

*Contract between the Company and the National Curriculum Development Centre (NCDC) in Rwanda for the supply of textbooks and supplementary materials to the NCDC for a total of RWF 1,591,969,394 (KES 230,720,202 @RWF/KES - 6.9)

*... others
.
guru267
#55 Posted : Wednesday, May 30, 2012 11:43:46 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
Are we expecting profits to decline, stagnation or are we expecting a loss???

Im sure the share price is cheap enough to be sustained if we get any of the first two scenarios..

For example if 2012 earnings were to fall 75% the P/E would be 15 (ive seen worse at the NSE)..
I believe Theres adequate margin of safety in this one
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
VituVingiSana
#56 Posted : Wednesday, May 30, 2012 11:58:50 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,129
Location: Nairobi
guru267 wrote:
Are we expecting profits to decline, stagnation or are we expecting a loss???

Im sure the share price is cheap enough to be sustained if we get any of the first two scenarios..

For example if 2012 earnings were to fall 75% the P/E would be 15 (ive seen worse at the NSE)..
I believe Theres adequate margin of safety in this one
Sawa. All yours ;-) Current price at 15/-. Enjoy...!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
guru267
#57 Posted : Thursday, May 31, 2012 12:07:26 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
guru267 wrote:
Are we expecting profits to decline, stagnation or are we expecting a loss???

Im sure the share price is cheap enough to be sustained if we get any of the first two scenarios..

For example if 2012 earnings were to fall 75% the P/E would be 15 (ive seen worse at the NSE)..
I believe Theres adequate margin of safety in this one
Sawa. All yours ;-) Current price at 15/-. Enjoy...!


Not that i would touch a publisher.. I was merely pointing out that it will probably not pull a TCL..
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
mwekez@ji
#58 Posted : Thursday, May 31, 2012 12:15:16 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
@guru, if earnings fall to previous year level:

EPS; 0.37 (21,621,000/58,500,000)

PE: 37.8!!! (14/0.37)
VituVingiSana
#59 Posted : Thursday, May 31, 2012 1:43:47 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,129
Location: Nairobi
How do you delete a post?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#60 Posted : Thursday, May 31, 2012 1:49:22 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,129
Location: Nairobi
guru267 wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
guru267 wrote:
Are we expecting profits to decline, stagnation or are we expecting a loss???

Im sure the share price is cheap enough to be sustained if we get any of the first two scenarios..

For example if 2012 earnings were to fall 75% the P/E would be 15 (ive seen worse at the NSE)..
I believe Theres adequate margin of safety in this one
Sawa. All yours ;-) Current price at 15/-. Enjoy...!

Not that i would touch a publisher.. I was merely pointing out that it will probably not pull a TCL..
Sawa but unlike you ("adequate margin of safety" at a PER of 15) I would not encourage anyone to buy at 15/- or 14/- or even 12/- until I see audited results for FY 2011-12.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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