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CBK T Bill returns
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alutacontinua
#41 Posted : Wednesday, October 07, 2015 7:46:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/23/2011
Posts: 304
KulaRaha wrote:
alutacontinua wrote:
@impunity i dont think so....just had a look at the results of the 182 and 364 day t-bills for this week and they have surged again

182 weighted average was 21.607% (Up 1.276%)
364 weighted average was 21.489% (Up 0.803%)


https://www.centralbank....0dated%2012.10.2015.pdf

What i keep finding interesting is the subscription rate.....This time round it was 142% for the 182 and a massive 316% for the 364 day.



And how much did they accept?


They were in the markets looking for Ksh.8B but they accepted Ksh.5.3B for the 182 -day t-bill and Ksh.8.9B for the 364-day t-bill.
You dont have to be great to START but you have to start to be GREAT!!!!!!!!
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Impunity
#42 Posted : Wednesday, October 07, 2015 7:55:24 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 3/2/2009
Posts: 26,328
Location: Masada
alutacontinua wrote:
KulaRaha wrote:
alutacontinua wrote:
@impunity i dont think so....just had a look at the results of the 182 and 364 day t-bills for this week and they have surged again

182 weighted average was 21.607% (Up 1.276%)
364 weighted average was 21.489% (Up 0.803%)


https://www.centralbank....0dated%2012.10.2015.pdf

What i keep finding interesting is the subscription rate.....This time round it was 142% for the 182 and a massive 316% for the 364 day.



And how much did they accept?


They were in the markets looking for Ksh.8B but they accepted Ksh.5.3B for the 182 -day t-bill and Ksh.8.9B for the 364-day t-bill.


So they were looking for 8B and took home over 14B for both 182 and 364 bills?
Portfolio: Sold
You know you've made it when you get a parking space for your yatcht.
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alutacontinua
#43 Posted : Wednesday, October 07, 2015 8:00:50 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/23/2011
Posts: 304
snipermnoma wrote:
Now that the subscription rate on the longer 182 and 364 is rising, if 91 day subscription remains the same or higher, it means even liquidity will be further reduced. That is not a good sign for stocks. However it is a good sign that T-bill rates will remain high for now.


Think we will be looking at a higher subscription rate for the 91-day tomorrow. Once the bear market starts its slide (as has been pointed out by gurus like @hisah) the outflow will be large.
You dont have to be great to START but you have to start to be GREAT!!!!!!!!
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alutacontinua
#44 Posted : Wednesday, October 07, 2015 8:03:07 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/23/2011
Posts: 304
Impunity wrote:
alutacontinua wrote:
KulaRaha wrote:
alutacontinua wrote:
@impunity i dont think so....just had a look at the results of the 182 and 364 day t-bills for this week and they have surged again

182 weighted average was 21.607% (Up 1.276%)
364 weighted average was 21.489% (Up 0.803%)


https://www.centralbank....0dated%2012.10.2015.pdf

What i keep finding interesting is the subscription rate.....This time round it was 142% for the 182 and a massive 316% for the 364 day.



And how much did they accept?


They were in the markets looking for Ksh.8B but they accepted Ksh.5.3B for the 182 -day t-bill and Ksh.8.9B for the 364-day t-bill.


So they were looking for 8B and took home over 14B for both 182 and 364 bills?


Yes they did and in the process turned away 0.37B from the 182-day bids and 3.73B from the 364-day bids.
You dont have to be great to START but you have to start to be GREAT!!!!!!!!
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Impunity
#45 Posted : Wednesday, October 07, 2015 8:05:59 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 3/2/2009
Posts: 26,328
Location: Masada
alutacontinua wrote:
KulaRaha wrote:
alutacontinua wrote:
@impunity i dont think so....just had a look at the results of the 182 and 364 day t-bills for this week and they have surged again

182 weighted average was 21.607% (Up 1.276%)
364 weighted average was 21.489% (Up 0.803%)


https://www.centralbank....0dated%2012.10.2015.pdf

What i keep finding interesting is the subscription rate.....This time round it was 142% for the 182 and a massive 316% for the 364 day.



And how much did they accept?


They were in the markets looking for Ksh.8B but they accepted Ksh.5.3B for the 182 -day t-bill and Ksh.8.9B for the 364-day t-bill.


So they were looking for 8B and took home over 14B for both 182 and 364 bills?
Portfolio: Sold
You know you've made it when you get a parking space for your yatcht.
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Impunity
#46 Posted : Wednesday, October 07, 2015 8:12:06 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 3/2/2009
Posts: 26,328
Location: Masada
alutacontinua wrote:
snipermnoma wrote:
Now that the subscription rate on the longer 182 and 364 is rising, if 91 day subscription remains the same or higher, it means even liquidity will be further reduced. That is not a good sign for stocks. However it is a good sign that T-bill rates will remain high for now.


Think we will be looking at a higher subscription rate for the 91-day tomorrow. Once the bear market starts its slide (as has been pointed out by gurus like @hisah) the outflow will be large.


Any chance it will hit 30% peak in this month?
Portfolio: Sold
You know you've made it when you get a parking space for your yatcht.
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alutacontinua
#47 Posted : Wednesday, October 07, 2015 8:28:38 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/23/2011
Posts: 304
Impunity wrote:
alutacontinua wrote:
snipermnoma wrote:
Now that the subscription rate on the longer 182 and 364 is rising, if 91 day subscription remains the same or higher, it means even liquidity will be further reduced. That is not a good sign for stocks. However it is a good sign that T-bill rates will remain high for now.


Think we will be looking at a higher subscription rate for the 91-day tomorrow. Once the bear market starts its slide (as has been pointed out by gurus like @hisah) the outflow will be large.


Any chance it will hit 30% peak in this month?


Think we shall peak at about 23-25%.....Anything higher will surely be unsustainable.

Another angle i am looking at is trying to figure out if smart money has already bought or are in the process of buying up the bonds thus we could see yields stay around current levels/even lower.(My 2 cents)
You dont have to be great to START but you have to start to be GREAT!!!!!!!!
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kyukkamba
#48 Posted : Wednesday, October 07, 2015 8:46:55 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/28/2010
Posts: 151
Impunity wrote:
alutacontinua wrote:
snipermnoma wrote:
Now that the subscription rate on the longer 182 and 364 is rising, if 91 day subscription remains the same or higher, it means even liquidity will be further reduced. That is not a good sign for stocks. However it is a good sign that T-bill rates will remain high for now.


Think we will be looking at a higher subscription rate for the 91-day tomorrow. Once the bear market starts its slide (as has been pointed out by gurus like @hisah) the outflow will be large.


Any chance it will hit 30% peak in this month?


Sad ..30% return Guaranteed!!!..this sounds soo sweet...wale tuko na mbesha...will act like msumeno........unakula pande zote mbili....Bills+Stocks....Hehehehhhh..kazi iedereeee
Ni Uhuru wa Mbesha...Niguo kana tiguo?
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Angelica _ann
#49 Posted : Wednesday, October 07, 2015 9:38:03 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/7/2012
Posts: 11,908
Saturation point coming soon. Don't see us going past 23.5% this time round smile.
In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
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TheGeek
#50 Posted : Wednesday, October 07, 2015 9:50:28 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 7/3/2014
Posts: 245
where is @ metasploit @mnandii to tell us what the charts say ? & @ Phillanga .
In the world of securities, courage and patience become the supreme virtues after adequate knowledge and a tested judgment are at hand.
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Impunity
#51 Posted : Wednesday, October 07, 2015 10:25:59 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 3/2/2009
Posts: 26,328
Location: Masada
Angelica _ann wrote:
Saturation point coming soon. Don't see us going past 23.5% this time round smile.

I am told siku za Moi and Goldenburg era this thing hit past 30%...anyone with the historical cartoonist charts?
Portfolio: Sold
You know you've made it when you get a parking space for your yatcht.
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hisah
#52 Posted : Thursday, October 08, 2015 6:47:26 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Angelica _ann wrote:
Saturation point coming soon. Don't see us going past 23.5% this time round smile.

Indeed this trend is unsustainable. Whenever the yield curve inverts the political temperature also goes off the scale! Ugly political drama is coming up two years before the election if this liquidity vacuum trend keeps up. Austerity vs stimulus will be one thorny debate. Save KES while you crash the economy or let the market work it out. Time is running out for treasury!
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Boris Boyka
#53 Posted : Thursday, October 08, 2015 7:21:28 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/15/2013
Posts: 1,977
Location: Here
hisah wrote:
Angelica _ann wrote:
Saturation point coming soon. Don't see us going past 23.5% this time round smile.

Indeed this trend is unsustainable. Whenever the yield curve inverts the political temperature also goes off the scale! Ugly political drama is coming up two years before the election if this liquidity vacuum trend keeps up. Austerity vs stimulus will be one thorny debate. Save KES while you crash the economy or let the market work it out. Time is running out for treasury!

Henry Rotich and Patrick Ngugi Njoroge must be the most worked up fellows after UK, mental work!
Everybody STEALS, a THIEF is one who's CAUGHT stealing something of LITTLE VALUE. !!!
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obiero
#54 Posted : Thursday, October 08, 2015 7:23:12 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,530
Location: nairobi
hisah wrote:
Angelica _ann wrote:
Saturation point coming soon. Don't see us going past 23.5% this time round smile.

Indeed this trend is unsustainable. Whenever the yield curve inverts the political temperature also goes off the scale! Ugly political drama is coming up two years before the election if this liquidity vacuum trend keeps up. Austerity vs stimulus will be one thorny debate. Save KES while you crash the economy or let the market work it out. Time is running out for treasury!

The cause of the economic crash can be pointed directly to SGR. The lunatic express. A railway being built for no good economic sense.. Most of us will never use that thing. Trust me

HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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KulaRaha
#55 Posted : Thursday, October 08, 2015 7:55:06 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/26/2007
Posts: 6,514
Meltdown! Should peak at 25%, with talk that GoK wants to now borrow externally rather than at such high rates domestically.

Expect huge pressure on KES if that happens, maybe 120 to 130 vs USD.

SGR is going to make some rich while the majority will get crushed!
Business opportunities are like buses,there's always another one coming
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Impunity
#56 Posted : Thursday, October 08, 2015 8:05:04 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 3/2/2009
Posts: 26,328
Location: Masada
KulaRaha wrote:
Meltdown! Should peak at 25%, with talk that GoK wants to now borrow externally rather than at such high rates domestically.

Expect huge pressure on KES if that happens, maybe 120 to 130 vs USD.

SGR is going to make some rich while the majority will get crushed!


LOOOOOOOOOLLLLL.
Portfolio: Sold
You know you've made it when you get a parking space for your yatcht.
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kasibitta
#57 Posted : Thursday, October 08, 2015 8:51:22 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/7/2014
Posts: 155
My two cents opinion. I would interpret the oversubscription on 182 and 364 as almost peak of the rates.The clever money is locking a good risk free rate for a full or half year as the rates will soon come down.
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alutacontinua
#58 Posted : Thursday, October 08, 2015 10:48:41 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/23/2011
Posts: 304
Impunity wrote:
Angelica _ann wrote:
Saturation point coming soon. Don't see us going past 23.5% this time round smile.

I am told siku za Moi and Goldenburg era this thing hit past 30%...anyone with the historical cartoonist charts?


http://cdn.tradingeconom...9150101&d2=20151231

You dont have to be great to START but you have to start to be GREAT!!!!!!!!
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Impunity
#59 Posted : Thursday, October 08, 2015 12:33:19 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 3/2/2009
Posts: 26,328
Location: Masada
alutacontinua wrote:
Impunity wrote:
Angelica _ann wrote:
Saturation point coming soon. Don't see us going past 23.5% this time round smile.

I am told siku za Moi and Goldenburg era this thing hit past 30%...anyone with the historical cartoonist charts?


http://cdn.tradingeconom...9150101&d2=20151231



Yaaani in 1994 the rates were 80%....njesso....and CORDESHIANS wanna compare UK era with Moi's?
Portfolio: Sold
You know you've made it when you get a parking space for your yatcht.
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maka
#60 Posted : Thursday, October 08, 2015 12:38:34 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 4/22/2010
Posts: 11,522
Location: Nairobi
alutacontinua wrote:
Impunity wrote:
alutacontinua wrote:
snipermnoma wrote:
Now that the subscription rate on the longer 182 and 364 is rising, if 91 day subscription remains the same or higher, it means even liquidity will be further reduced. That is not a good sign for stocks. However it is a good sign that T-bill rates will remain high for now.


Think we will be looking at a higher subscription rate for the 91-day tomorrow. Once the bear market starts its slide (as has been pointed out by gurus like @hisah) the outflow will be large.


Any chance it will hit 30% peak in this month?


Think we shall peak at about 23-25%.....Anything higher will surely be unsustainable.

Another angle i am looking at is trying to figure out if smart money has already bought or are in the process of buying up the bonds thus we could see yields stay around current levels/even lower.(My 2 cents)


Lot of trading on IFBs...around 15.30% levels...apparently its NSSF buying.
possunt quia posse videntur
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