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I&M Bank to List at NSE via City Trust.
Aguytrying
#41 Posted : Tuesday, January 22, 2013 10:29:54 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
http://www.businessdaily...1/-/88b0o2/-/index.html

5:1 split + reverse takeover
Mouth watering share actions.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
VituVingiSana
#42 Posted : Wednesday, January 23, 2013 7:50:43 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,134
Location: Nairobi
Aguytrying wrote:
http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/Corporate-News/I-M-owners-earn-Sh29bn-in-City-Trust-shares-deal-/-/539550/1672598/-/item/1/-/88b0o2/-/index.html

5:1 split + reverse takeover
Mouth watering share actions.
Nice!
"City Trust shareholders will see their stake in the bank grow to 7.3 per cent from the current 7.28 per cent." So a little bonus too for CTL shareholders.

"At Sh31 billion, the promoters of the transaction say I&M Bank is undervalued on grounds that City Trust shares are trading at discount."

"City Trust had a market value of Sh2.2 billion Tuesday compared to the bank’s valuation of about Sh40 billion."
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#43 Posted : Wednesday, January 23, 2013 7:54:49 AM
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Joined: 1/3/2007
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Location: Nairobi
"Under the deal, shareholders in the larger I&M Bank will be offered 13.62 shares in the investment firm for every share they hold in the bank in what will see the investors granted 363,722,034 new City Trust shares, according to the offer document seen by the Business Daily."

"The new shares will be offered after the split of the stock into five parts"

"“City Trust shares are trading at a discount, this being attributed to the indirect holding of the bank shares,” says the offer document."

"City Trust had a market value of Sh2.2 billion Tuesday compared to the bank’s valuation of about Sh40 billion."

So if I am reading this right, the value of CTL's existing shares + new shares = KShs 40 Billion. Currently City Trust has 2,097,458 shares to be split 5:1.

40,000,000,000 / (363,722,034+(2,097,458*5)) = 102/- per share.
Current price is 400 pre-split = 80 post-split. Can it rally 25% like ARM?

Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Aguytrying
#44 Posted : Wednesday, January 23, 2013 10:48:35 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
@vvs. I have to hand it to the contributers of this thread. You guys were spot on, from way back 2011. Down to the split, down to name change to I&M holdings.when it lists at 80 bob after split after elections as I&M holdings. What'll happen
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
VituVingiSana
#45 Posted : Wednesday, January 23, 2013 12:50:09 PM
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Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,134
Location: Nairobi
Aguytrying wrote:
@vvs. I have to hand it to the contributers of this thread. You guys were spot on, from way back 2011. Down to the split, down to name change to I&M holdings.when it lists at 80 bob after split after elections as I&M holdings. What'll happen

Split was easy to figure out. At every AGM for years the same question/demand from shareholders. Price is high. Bonus/Split demands. This should have been 20:1 to bring it line with KCB/Equity/Barclays but they went with DTB/SCBK.
As for the name change. Easy. When the 'big brother' with a bigger name [I&M Bank, I&M Tanzania, etc] is in charge, it will happen. Who knows City Trust? How many know I&M?

BTW, BCR in Rwanda is now "BCR, An I&M Bank Group Company"
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
mukiha
#46 Posted : Wednesday, January 23, 2013 12:58:45 PM
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Joined: 6/27/2008
Posts: 4,114
After all the dust has settled, I hope I&M does not change from and Excellent bank to a great business!
Nothing is real unless it can be named; nothing has value unless it can be sold; money is worthless unless you spend it.
VituVingiSana
#47 Posted : Wednesday, January 23, 2013 1:52:52 PM
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mukiha wrote:
After all the dust has settled, I hope I&M does not change from and Excellent bank to a great business!
Amen!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
youcan'tstopusnow
#48 Posted : Wednesday, January 23, 2013 2:22:36 PM
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Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
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VVS, what would be the return of those who had the minimum 20m to invest in the I&M private placement?
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
VituVingiSana
#49 Posted : Wednesday, January 23, 2013 2:29:55 PM
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Joined: 1/3/2007
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Location: Nairobi
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
VVS, what would be the return of those who had the minimum 20m to invest in the I&M private placement?
Hmmm, if the price should be 1,400 as claimed/calculated by D&B in the Circular then 60% in 2.5 years?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
youcan'tstopusnow
#50 Posted : Wednesday, January 23, 2013 3:59:58 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
VituVingiSana wrote:
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
VVS, what would be the return of those who had the minimum 20m to invest in the I&M private placement?
Hmmm, if the price should be 1,400 as claimed/calculated by D&B in the Circular then 60% in 2.5 years?

City Trust is the biggest gainer (by a long shot) at the NSE over the period (up 167% since 19th November 2010 - date of I&M private placement)
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
ChessMaster
#51 Posted : Wednesday, January 23, 2013 4:12:02 PM
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Joined: 2/23/2009
Posts: 1,626
I'm wondering who merged their systems and standardized their accounting?
Uncertainty is certain.Let go
Aguytrying
#52 Posted : Wednesday, January 23, 2013 8:20:12 PM
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Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
I was tempted by this counter, until i realized it was overvalued. Heck it will still rally, but for how long will the implied premium cushion you. City trust at 200, would have been a P/B of 1. Thats now a pipe dream. those that bought < 300 got a good deal.

I expect it to rally to 500 before share suspension on march 5( co-incidence), so split to be at 100, then upon listing, a rally to 120.00 is on the cards.
when one predicts a stock it proves them wrong, but, just putting it out there

check out SIB'S summary

Key figures summary


New city trust shares
363,722,034
Acquisition stake in I&M
92.72%
City Trusts' pre-swap holding in I&M
7.28%
Share swap exchange ratio (City Trust:I&M)
13.62x
I&M's average OTC VWAP in 2012
KES 1,085.71
I&M's Fair value range as used in SWAP
KES 1,362.70 - KES 1,431.80
Implied PB range based on I&M's fair value (3Q12 NAV)
2.37x - 2.49x
Total City Trust shares post SWAP and spilt
392,362,039
Dilution (City Trust shareholders)
92.7%
Pre SWAP FY11 NAV (City Trust) - KES
9.75
Post SWAP implied FY11 NAV (I&M Holdings)- KES
37.27
Source: Standard Investment Bank Research
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
VituVingiSana
#53 Posted : Wednesday, January 23, 2013 11:45:47 PM
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Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,134
Location: Nairobi
D&B values I&M at 1,400 which is approximately 510 for City Trust. A huge factor will be how I&M accounts for its Bonds in 4Q 2012. There is BCR purchased in 3Q 2012 that may add substantial earnings in 2013.

I&M Tanzania was an under-performer in YTD 2012 as far as profits but this should grow if I&M leverages Kenya-Tanzania & Tanzania-Rwanda trade flows.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
youcan'tstopusnow
#54 Posted : Thursday, January 24, 2013 3:28:17 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
Regulatory filings show that I&M Bank directors Sarit Shah will own shares worth Sh1.1 billion and Sachit Shah
shares worth Sh1.09 billion based on their shareholding and current trading price of City Trust shares.
This will see them join the directors’ billionaire club that includes businessman Chris
Kirubi ( Centum Investment), Pradeep Paunrana (Athi River
Mining), James Mwangi
(Equity Bank), Jimnah Mbaru (Britam) and Scangroup’s Bharat Thakrar.
http://www.businessdaily.../-/27lh4uz/-/index.html
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
youcan'tstopusnow
#55 Posted : Thursday, January 24, 2013 3:34:36 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
French firm Proparco has
sold 1.3 million I&M Bank
shares worth Sh1.8 billion to existing shareholders of the
bank while Germany’s DEG has agreed to sell a similar stake to its fellow investors by March 5.
http://www.businessdaily.../-/q39umjz/-/index.html
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
VituVingiSana
#56 Posted : Thursday, January 24, 2013 9:11:51 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,134
Location: Nairobi
Interesting...

1) DEG/Proparco sold shares to existing shareholders as a way of exiting 'early' instead of the 2-year lock in period. This shows 'confidence' by the current Kenyan shareholders. I like firms where directors & their families/firms have ownership.

2) The 2 directors have substantial shares and are locked in too. That's is very good since it is similar to James Mwangi & Equity. Tuko Pamoja unlike Naikuni & KQ.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
the deal
#57 Posted : Thursday, January 24, 2013 9:27:48 AM
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Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
Hmmm and how many of this does @vss have? seems very vocal...compared to other listed mid tier banks...I&M Holdings at KES510 would be fully valued...at KES510 I would pick NIC, DTB or CFC anytime...BCR has a possibility of adding around KES300-410mn to PAT in 2013 with downside risks being the aid cuts which are set to negatively affect Rwandas economy.
Kausha
#58 Posted : Thursday, January 24, 2013 2:40:32 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/8/2007
Posts: 808
My back of the envelope calcs...indicated I&M at 1,400 is trading at 20% premium P/B multiple to KCB at 2.4x 2011 books. I thought this is quite onerous given KCB has rallied 33. I&M should ideally trade at a 15% -20% illiquidity discount to KCB. Justifying I&M's 20% premium is indirectly suggesting that KCB has at least a 20% upside (kshs 39/share TP). Between the 2 banks I would fancy KCB growing earnings faster and with a higher payout. Inferring from I&M, City Trust at 300 bob is correctly valued. The rallies beyond these prices would have to be driven by fantasy sentiment!
Aguytrying
#59 Posted : Thursday, January 24, 2013 6:49:55 PM
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Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
Vvs why didnt you sound the warnings earlier ok louder. I bet nav is between 200-300. Good luck to those onboard.

Meanwhile share touches 500 today.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
guru267
#60 Posted : Friday, January 25, 2013 6:18:16 AM
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Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
Shareholder approval and co operation is key for the conclusion of this deal!

www.businessdailyafrica....532/-/g3r85/-/index.html
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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