Given March-May rains forecast to be below normal, I'd say the market is still massively overvalued. By a good 20%.

good thing I am generally a contrarian...

The drought will hurt us but that is temporary [tho Kenyans need to stop breeding like rabbits] until it rains...

It will rain but will we be ready?

@Muthawamunene

The only share I was still holding was 10000 BBK. I sold them in mid Feb 2011 at 70 bob. Now I don't have a single share at the NSE.

So, am not hating. I was only saying, the situation that helped cook my goose in 2008 was a case of my short sightedness. This time, am seeing very far.

I have put in 4m into the 30yr bond at 12%. Another similar amount has gone to land. The rest of the portfolio is in Cash. The only thing that can bring down the NSE is some action on the streets. Blood on the streets. Then, I can move in for the kill.

That is why am asking my kin, Ruto, to do something sooner than later.

I know those still holding shares at NSE have crossed their fingers. I have learnt to operate like foreign investors. When there is political uncertainty, move out. The earlier the better. Even if the crisis does not happen, you still sleep easy and you can always come back.

There is a guy here whom I advised to sell his shares in Jan except BBK. Told him to sell BBK after they announce end yr results. I gave advice based on what I was doing.

Right now, the government is split in the middle about ICC. The worst part will come if either of the 2 principals is summoned.

If you think Ruto wont sing, you are very wrong. Actually, Uhuru, Muthaura and Ali are not pushing the government. MK is pushing the government to stop the case for fear the O6 might spill the beans.

We all want impunity to end but not at the expense of national stability, we want impunity to end starting with George Bush, we want impunity to end but not by propping up American impunity on Africa.

Why are our leaders answerable to America? Why is Obama not answerable to Museveni. The day we will have leaders who are not answerable to western leaders, there will be hope. Among the bad leaders we have, a few will emerge and steer their countries to prosperity. Remember Singapore, china etc. They made it on their own cauze some idiot did not insist on them answering to some gangster elsewhere.

@surealligator
Siasa mbaya maisha mbaya. Disputed elections are no justification to kill your neighbour. I see the hand of God in the Hague process. No matter what they do,that bus is going down. You forget we are answerable to the west due to aid dependency that is inspired by the maize,goldenberg et al scandals.
If it makes you happy,by vision 2030 we will be answerable to the chinese. Stock market wise uko poa but kisiasa umechemsha.
Back to the market....Just released Kenol kobil to get me liquid....timing is of the essence but darkness is all I can see.

i'm looking at richLIVE......someone has just sold COOP at 16 bob....what???

@VVS

Note: If given an option, I would have wanted to have the O6 stoned at Uhuru Park.

http://www.youtube.com/w...tso&feature=related

Lets not think from the way things seem to be to the reality on the ground. Let us enlighten each other so that Kenya will eventually become the African Tiger.

Priority right now is to end impunity.

Initially, we were giving credit to our political leaders for the successful formulation and promulgation of the same only to discover Americans really put fire on the politicians to pass the constitution.

Let us not be simple minds who act out of impressions and emotions. Think, and think from the right premises

VVS, what about the murders Americans are committing in Iraq. Were Iragis a threat to American citizens so that we can say their government was defending them? Americans lied to the world in order to go for Saddam. I thought I was being informative to some here on how Americans operate.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oARBdBtGenM

Yes, they have democracy but that is all you are supposed to know as you have more pressing matters to attend to, to feed you family, to make ends meet etc.

@Simplified

Did I say anywhere here that disputed elections are justification for killing your neighbour? I did not.

Those who planned, including those who participated in setting up the right environment for mass violence either by using Social Psychology or otherwise should have been hanged by now if I would have my way. So, don't dare think I support any of these idiots including those not going to the Hague.

By the way, why am I arguing with you guys?

You said "You forget we are answerable to the west due to aid dependency that is inspired by the maize,goldenberg et al scandals." This is where you miss the point. But it is not your fault. Someone said it has to do with your DNA or genetical disposition as an African.

The sooner the O6 are carted off to the Hague, the better. I for one do not think that our Judiciary is up to the task. If they are indeed innocent let it be decided there. Just because the US does not submit to the ICC does not mean that Kenya should do likewise. At least in the US, you can expect that Americans who commit crimes of the nature of those committed during the PEV will indeed be tried. In Kenya, your guess is as good as mine.

The market may continue dipping as a consequence, but I can live with that. Ultimately, it will get back up. People need goods and services and hence the companies that produce them. As share prices dip more and more, the greater the value that we will be buying!

I already have my cheque mkononi....finger on the trigger....for you waiting after 2012 I believe your strategies are flawed...thats more than one year away and given investors 10seconds memory it will be quickly forgotten...some banks P/E'S are too good to ignore(KCB,DTB)...all this is irrational behavior based on pure twisted sentiment.

meanwhile I have a KCB bus to board.

That barrier at 4,000 breached today. Market down 113.88 points to close at 3915.01. Let's meet tomorrow for another jump with the bear!

Another jump with the bear! What a way of putting it.

I am cautiously optimistic as I am looking at buying Dividend Yields of 5%+ in growing companies.

We (optimists) are getting fewer and fewer though and it is hard to bet against the market, I will concede.