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young
#561 Posted : Saturday, October 16, 2010 1:49:34 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/20/2007
Posts: 2,037
Location: Lagos, Nigeria
Welcome back KK
The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
Scubidu
#562 Posted : Saturday, October 16, 2010 2:49:46 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
hisah wrote:
http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/-/539546/1030614/-/msn2ho/-/index.html

This inflation rate model manipulation is going to create chaos in future to the money supply. As long as the economy recovers and expands, bankers will overlook it. But during a pause or recession, bankers might boycott using this gauge and a money crunch will follow suit.
It's no wonder the Kenyan banks ignore the CBK's fund rate (CBR) and refuse to lower the loan interest rates to single digits since the risk models are out of sync with the Banker.
What is keeping the KES rate lower against the €, £ & $ if indeed the econ is on recovery and is expanding?
At the moment I can't understand this ultra low inflation rate & a devalued KES.


@hisah. You're onto something...ive also bin looking into this after I did a research on the little adjustments (read hedonics) made over time in the more developed economies. The current Kenyan inflation stats have poor correlations with most economic indicators from savings rate to M3 to KES currency. It's become irrelevant like the CBR that CBK admitted that it wasn't factoring it into the interest rate structure.

The article made a good point about the erosion of purchasing power, which is one of the interesting indicators that should be followed. What are bank lending decisions based on if they borrow at zero rates interbank, hold in excess of 25b in clearing accounts and the real interest rate suggests it's time to lend. The problem i have with the inflation rate is that one can't make comparisons b4 2009, so we can't know the drivers. A devalued currency during export recovery growth as well as other inflows, it's all so confusing.

http://www.bi-me.com/mai...=48853&t=1&cg=4

http://blog.kimblecharti...dollar-testing-support/

“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
hisah
#563 Posted : Saturday, October 16, 2010 5:18:33 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Scubidu wrote:

@hisah. You're onto something...ive also bin looking into this after I did a research on the little adjustments (read hedonics) made over time in the more developed economies. The current Kenyan inflation stats have poor correlations with most economic indicators from savings rate to M3 to KES currency. It's become irrelevant like the CBR that CBK admitted that it wasn't factoring it into the interest rate structure.

The article made a good point about the erosion of purchasing power, which is one of the interesting indicators that should be followed. What are bank lending decisions based on if they borrow at zero rates interbank, hold in excess of 25b in clearing accounts and the real interest rate suggests it's time to lend. The problem i have with the inflation rate is that one can't make comparisons b4 2009, so we can't know the drivers. A devalued currency during export recovery growth as well as other inflows, it's all so confusing.

http://www.bi-me.com/mai...=48853&t=1&cg=4

http://blog.kimblecharti...dollar-testing-support/



Yikes, we're also cooking figures like the west! The inflation rate fell almost 6 times from 17 to 3% after remodelling the metrics while the purchasing power is bleeding more. Therefore, the inflation rate is still above 17%, but represented as 3%. What the heck?! So what was the rationale behind remodelling the inflation rate metrics if the Banker doesn't use it?
This poses a great challenge to effectively price and calculate the economic direction and risky for money market.
Where can one get more info about these monetary policy issues apart from CBK? I don't want the CBK stuff since it now looks like they're fudging info Sad
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
youcan'tstopusnow
#564 Posted : Sunday, October 17, 2010 7:08:58 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
Return of unsecured loans as banks raid salaried employees www.nation.co.ke/busines.../-/14qfos7z/-/index.html Could this turn out as bad as it did for the American banks when they went on a lending spree?
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
PKoli
#565 Posted : Sunday, October 17, 2010 10:32:46 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/10/2007
Posts: 1,587
Our banks are very clever. What they say is unsecured is really secured loans.they will ask for all sorts of info from your HOUR your financial status etc. When you a really "unsecured loans" you will pay through the nose
karanjakinuthia
#566 Posted : Monday, October 18, 2010 9:40:34 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
U.S. Security Company Seeks $7.5 million in Exchange for Equity

USA existing security (public safety, consulting, training, alarm monitoring & installation, access control, body guard, investigations) company seeks 7.5 million USD in exchange for equity to consolidate 4 existing companies into one LLC and purchase equity in other similar companies to increase market share. Management has over 300 years of combined security industry, real estate, construction and government experience, and their goal is to operate more efficiently and profitably as a whole unique brand, rather than as divided companies and brands. They have profitably managed a multi-million dollar security services firm, and have clients at the local, regional, national and international levels.

Clientele that they protect include federal agencies responsible for disaster response and recovery (federal government), national alarm companies, local utility firms, national utility firms (electrical, water), wind generation plant companies (“green” technology), international security companies, celebrity security (estate and travel), Fortune 50 executive protection, natural gas pipelines and terminals, jewelry (diamond import / export) companies, large parcel carrier firms, consulting and investigations firms, national P.I. agency referral firms, national and regional security companies, international banks, A.T.M. servicing firms, city governments (local and state) throughout operating areas, educational facilities and schools, residential communities, homeowners associations, property management firms, hospitals and medical clinics, tobacco manufacturers and distributors, petroleum companies, disaster response and recovery companies, construction companies building clean energy housing and commercial spaces.

Please let me know of a good candidate via karanjakinuthia@hotmail.com
hisah
#567 Posted : Tuesday, October 19, 2010 9:26:15 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
Return of unsecured loans as banks raid salaried employees www.nation.co.ke/busines.../-/14qfos7z/-/index.html Could this turn out as bad as it did for the American banks when they went on a lending spree?



American banks messed up with mortgage mechanics through securization, which led to a lot of risk misrepresentation to the point where almost anyone could qualify for mortgage!? Kenyan banks are still scared to lend and refuse to listen to the lending calls of the CBK since they can't price the monetary risks efficiently. Unsecured loans aka mkopo wa salo are pegged on a payslip. If need a huge loan e.g. 10M, the bank won/t accept a payslip to be the security.
However, I'm still interested in knowing the banks that lent to housing developers of the oversupplied leafy suburbs and how they expect the developers to pay back. Another gimmick to watch out for is this loan on equity (house value) after some mortgage payments so that one can borrow on the value (market) of their 'home'. Home in quotes since it is still under the bank smile
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
hisah
#568 Posted : Tuesday, October 19, 2010 9:31:32 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
@scubidu - An interesting FT article on the latest count of CB's still devaluing or intervening on their currencies against the $.

http://ftalphaville.ft.c...-a-one-week-band-redux/

In 1949, Henry Hazitt was quoted on Newsweek about how the Bretton Woods fixed foreign exchange mechanism could collapse due to rogue devaluation - what the world is currently experiencing. He called this the World Monetary Earthquake (title of his book) - note it's a long article.
http://books.google.co.u...m=1&ved=0CCgQ6AEwAA

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henry_Hazlitt
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Scubidu
#569 Posted : Tuesday, October 19, 2010 6:12:46 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
@hisah. Well the west wrote the rule book on inflation manipulation. The rate of understating Kenyan inflation was actually a factor of 4 times in 2008 but generally averaged about 2 times since 2006. Nway these are my estimates. Where can you info on monetary policy issues? I suppose you could try World Bank and IMF. You could get stats from a website called TradingEconomics but they generally quote World Bank.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/kenya/indicators/

They have a few good charts and data on inflation and other interesting stuff like our GDP deflator. Interesting article on BD today on inflation. if the problem is we don't trust government stats, why don't industry players do their own index...compare a NCPB food index to the KNBS...the difference, is the calculation. I think that would be a novel idea, an industry run index to benchmark the establishment.

http://www.businessdaily...0/-/p6b8k8/-/index.html

http://www.zerohedge.com...and-violent-sell-stocks

I had the same concern about mortgage lending, u mentioned in a previous post...particularly on finance costs incurred by developers of non-residential properties. I had spoken to a director at a real estate management firm and they were concerned about vacancy rates. Great articles in the above post btw.
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
karanjakinuthia
#570 Posted : Thursday, October 21, 2010 9:46:55 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
Biotech and Healthcare Takeover/Joint Venture Offer

A Singapore based fund is investing USD$50 Million Dollars
into an Australian Company who are market leaders in healthcare
supplements.

The company holds significant international contracts,
currently exports to 12 countries as well as entering a
major acquisitions program to accelerate market penetration.

They are going to use the funding to take over and or JV
with listed companies all over the world in their sector to buy every
good ebitda positive company in their space.

Some of the key criteria:

a) SECTOR: Similar space and/or product synergy

b) KEY CHARACTERISTICS OF TARGETS
Compatible market or product and strategy Excellent brand
Capacity & ability to ramp up
Asset rich
Multiple revenue streams
Listed or private
Efficient decision making process and capability to provide
accretive ebitda
Ability to add value geographically and strategically
Acquisition model based on earn out, part cash, part equity.

Please let me of a good candidate via karanjakinuthia@hotmail.com

hisah
#571 Posted : Tuesday, October 26, 2010 1:16:33 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
The height of madness... The $10 billion, 5yr Treasuries (TIPS) auction drew a negative yield for the first time in history and still got heavy demand...???

http://online.wsj.com/ar...-CO-20101025-712352.html
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
hisah
#572 Posted : Tuesday, October 26, 2010 5:05:30 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
@Scubidu - Did you read this article - http://www.businessdaily...8/-/u5fo4uz/-/index.html
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
hisah
#573 Posted : Tuesday, October 26, 2010 6:31:28 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
This will be used yet again to take down the markets just like in 2008 - http://www.elliottwavema...r-officials-to-be-fired/
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Scubidu
#574 Posted : Thursday, October 28, 2010 1:43:09 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
[quote=hisah]@Scubidu - Did you read this article - http://www.businessdaily.../-/u5fo4uz/-/index.html[/quote]

Yes I did read it. I know him personally (so no surprize on the inflation thing). You'd be surprized how much of his article was actually edited (not politically correct). His next article is on the EAC I believe, will it last.

Could open your other link on bank officials...

Did the Treasury say that they were going to slow down on the Kenyan stimulus?

@hisah. Can you explain how TIPS can yield negative? How do they work?
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
karanjakinuthia
#575 Posted : Thursday, October 28, 2010 5:40:06 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
Entertainment Takeover/Joint Venture Offer

A Singapore based fund is investing €360 Million into an American
Entertainment Company who are rapidly expanding in the
Film, Music, Video games entertainment fields.

The company currently has $38+ Million in signed
acquisitions and another target of $300 million.

The company is in process of listing on the Frankfurt
(FSE) They are going to use the funding complete their
current acquisitions and provide them with a strong base
of available funds to continue to acquire synergistic
EBITDA positive companies in their space.

They are seeking both positive EBIDTA acquisition candidates
and possibly one partner currently listed with good liquidity
for a JV deal.

So they can provide the right party with both the money and the
asset to invest in below is the criteria for acquisitions and
JV partner.

Requirements for Acquisitions
(1) Positive EBIDTA companies width an EBIDTA of $2 million or better,
preferably $10+ million EBITDA

(2) Willing to move quickly and sign pre-IPO

(3) Strong management with proven industry track record

(4) Based within the entertainment industry (can be tech,
service or content related)


JV Partner
(1) Good chemistry with individuals and between organizations

(2) Ability to add value geographically, especially Europe, Asia and Australia

(3) Ability to bring strong Intellectual Properties to market, i.e. Film, Music,
Video Games, other entertainment including Social Networked games, online video, etc.

(4) Currently listed on the Frankfurt (FSE) a positive, but they can drive that process.


Please let me know of a good candidate via karanjakinuthia@hotmail.com
Scubidu
#576 Posted : Thursday, October 28, 2010 6:45:06 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
In the IMF latest October report for Sub-Saharan Africa Kenya is still classified in the list of oil importers that are money targeters or inflation targeters. Slide 4 have interesting table showing the downward slide in commodity prices for food and grains.

http://www.centralbank.g...202010%20Commentary.ppt

http://www.lewrockwell.com/paul/paul700.html

http://www.caseyresearch...791?ppref=CRX175ED1010A

http://www.financialarma...street-disconnect.html?

“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
hisah
#577 Posted : Thursday, October 28, 2010 10:46:40 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Scubidu wrote:
[quote=hisah]@Scubidu - Did you read this article - http://www.businessdaily.../-/u5fo4uz/-/index.html[/quote]

Yes I did read it. I know him personally (so no surprize on the inflation thing). You'd be surprized how much of his article was actually edited (not politically correct). His next article is on the EAC I believe, will it last.

Could open your other link on bank officials...

Did the Treasury say that they were going to slow down on the Kenyan stimulus?

@hisah. Can you explain how TIPS can yield negative? How do they work?


Lamestream media at doing its job 'right' Sad But that's no surprise. I don't remember hearing about the treasury slowing down on stimulus.

I also have no idea how TIPS can go negative?! I'm trying to quickly unlearn everything they teach in school since it's not necessary anyway in the real world! d'oh!

I'm sure by now you see how significant silver prices have capitulated short sellers aka JP Morgan and other fishy banks that have been known to sell very large contracts without indication of ownership. Talk about fraud -> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L5mFbMBMrkM

Since Sept when I highlighted that JPM is closing their commodo trading desks, now the silver market is free - http://inflation.us/jpmorgansilver.html

Times have caught up with them - http://latestbusiness-ne...or-jp-morgan-19325.html

JPM stock - http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=jpm

I'm closely following the mortgage fraud saga involving the big US banks while the lame stream media keeps diverting attention to the bogus fed bank stimulus on Nov 3rd and how it will save the world!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pStXePDWbf8

$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
hisah
#578 Posted : Thursday, October 28, 2010 11:08:07 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Scubidu wrote:
In the IMF latest October report for Sub-Saharan Africa Kenya is still classified in the list of oil importers that are money targeters or inflation targeters. Slide 4 have interesting table showing the downward slide in commodity prices for food and grains.

http://www.centralbank.g...202010%20Commentary.ppt

http://www.lewrockwell.com/paul/paul700.html

http://www.caseyresearch...791?ppref=CRX175ED1010A

http://www.financialarma...street-disconnect.html?


Quite interesting reports here. I've avoided checking the CBK one since this is a waste of time going through fudged information.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
hisah
#579 Posted : Tuesday, November 02, 2010 11:50:59 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
http://www.elliottwave.c...he-Long-Term-Trend.aspx

http://www.youtube.com/w...e=player_embedded#at=96 - Just like the Brazilians have surprisingly elected a non-fancied female president, I expect the same surprise element with fed bank stimulus news event tomorrow - disappointment...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
hisah
#580 Posted : Wednesday, November 03, 2010 10:55:50 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
http://www.businessinsid...cy-subcommittee-2010-11

I expect an animated week in week out with the Fed chair facing Ron Paul on monetary policy debates smile The US markets will not like this very soon coupled with a measly $600B stimulus. At least this should spare the $ some gold & silver punishment...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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