wazua Tue, Mar 24, 2026
Welcome Guest Search | Active Topics | Log In

372 Pages«<287288289290291>»
Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
Options
Previous Topic · Next Topic
mnandii
#2881 Posted : Thursday, May 10, 2018 3:13:13 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
Lemme make things easy for the unconvinced. What Socionomics implies is that FINANCE and ECONOMICS are two completely separate fields. The tools you use in Finance are NOT the same ones you use in Economics. Economics is governed by Demand and Supply leading to Equilibrium price. In Economics higher prices lead to lower demand and lower prices lead to higher demand. This is a fundamental tenet of economics.

Finance is governed by social mood. In finance higher prices lead to higher demand and lower prices lead to lower demand. This is the complete opposite of what is found in Economics. e.g when the price of a stock rises more people buy in expectation of higher prices unlike in economics where e.g if the price of bread rises then fewer people would demand it.

So do not use the tools in economics to try to forecast financial markets.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
Back to top
  |
VituVingiSana
#2882 Posted : Thursday, May 10, 2018 3:45:21 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,349
Location: Nairobi
mnandii wrote:
Lemme make things easy for the unconvinced. What Socionomics implies is that FINANCE and ECONOMICS are two completely separate fields. The tools you use in Finance are NOT the same ones you use in Economics. Economics is governed by Demand and Supply leading to Equilibrium price. In Economics higher prices lead to lower demand and lower prices lead to higher demand. This is a fundamental tenet of economics.

Finance is governed by social mood. In finance higher prices lead to higher demand and lower prices lead to lower demand. This is the complete opposite of what is found in Economics. e.g when the price of a stock rises more people buy in expectation of higher prices unlike in economics where e.g if the price of bread rises then fewer people would demand it.

So do not use the tools in economics to try to forecast financial markets.

I gotta admit I am baffled.
After the interest rate cap law was passed, the price of most listed banks dropped precipitously.
After my "back of the envelope" calculations, I made a call and bought (demand) more of the banks eg Equity.
When the price of Equity went to 50+, I sold out - for other reasons than just coz the price had reason - and isn't this supply? [I sold Equity but I could have sold KK or KenRe since the gain of 100% was spectacular]

I held onto KK and sold Equity on the basis of the "value" [I saw more value in KK at 16 over Equity at 50] at the time.
I am a long-term shareholder (not a trader) and I advocate (WB as a mentor) buying good firms on the "cheap" but I am not averse to selling if the price is right or overblown to re-invest in a cheaper replacement.

If I get the right price (not 40) for Unga, I will sell and reinvest the funds into something else BUT I (nor do I believe most Wazuans) will buy shares at a crazy high price relative to fundamentals eg EPS, NAV, potential growth, etc.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Back to top
  |
Mukiri
#2883 Posted : Thursday, May 10, 2018 5:55:02 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2012
Posts: 5,222
mnandii wrote:
Quote:

What you call Socioeconomics in essence is, the fundamental analysis. They are mutually exclusive. If a company's fundamentals flop, it doesn't really matter what TA you come up with, it could be just one marubozu, and case closed. That, and sometimes TA is not picture perfect. When applying it historically, one can force it, however real-time, you need fundies. Fib can give target points, but a break-out is in essence governed by FA


You could do well to point any data that has been forced as you claim. Please note that the data I use I did not generate. Both the price chart and the profit figures are publicly available data. What I have done is to put them in context - which is what Elliott is all about.

Maybe 'force' is a harsh word. I'm also a TA adherent. What I meant is, sometimes different people can come up with different graphs on the same data.. even if the differences are slight.

Either way, to be a successful trader, you need both. You also need to be up to date on news. A TA guy looking down on a FA guy and vise versa is funny. Be two in one

Proverbs 19:21
Back to top
  |
Mukiri
#2884 Posted : Thursday, May 10, 2018 5:57:16 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2012
Posts: 5,222
mnandii wrote:
Lemme make things easy for the unconvinced. What Socionomics implies is that FINANCE and ECONOMICS are two completely separate fields. The tools you use in Finance are NOT the same ones you use in Economics. Economics is governed by Demand and Supply leading to Equilibrium price. In Economics higher prices lead to lower demand and lower prices lead to higher demand. This is a fundamental tenet of economics.

Finance is governed by social mood. In finance higher prices lead to higher demand and lower prices lead to lower demand. This is the complete opposite of what is found in Economics. e.g when the price of a stock rises more people buy in expectation of higher prices unlike in economics where e.g if the price of bread rises then fewer people would demand it.

So do not use the tools in economics to try to forecast financial markets.

This is interesting. Simply put and easy to grasp... but very very interesting. Yes, I can relate to what you've written. So, how do you marry the two?

Proverbs 19:21
Back to top
  |
mnandii
#2885 Posted : Tuesday, May 15, 2018 11:14:33 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304


Hehe smile

Safcom is falling even after the stellar results! Fundies, how do you explain that?

I stated earlier on that Safcom should fall in circle wave ((iv)) which is what it is doing presently. The bottom should be in place at the range 27 - 24.75 . To respect Elliott's rule of fourth waves (Wave four should not overlap wave one) I don't expect the current fall to reach 21.70, the wave ((i)) top.

Once wave ((iv)) completes, expect a move back up above 33.50. You can as well BUY with your SL at 21.70 and target a move to above 33.50. Since wave 5 is extending Safcom will likely move significantly higher that the last high at 33.50, to likely above 40s.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
Back to top
  |
obiero
#2886 Posted : Tuesday, May 15, 2018 11:26:55 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 14,226
Location: nairobi
mnandii wrote:


Hehe smile

Safcom is falling even after the stellar results! Fundies, how do you explain that?

I stated earlier on that Safcom should fall in circle wave ((iv)) which is what it is doing presently. The bottom should be in place at the range 27 - 24.75 . To respect Elliott's rule of fourth waves (Wave four should not overlap wave one) I don't expect the current fall to reach 21.70, the wave ((i)) top.

Once wave ((iv)) completes, expect a move back up above 33.50. You can as well BUY with your SL at 21.70 and target a move to above 33.50. Since wave 5 is extending Safcom will likely move significantly higher that the last high at 33.50, to likely above 40s.

There is massive uncertainty in the Kenyan Telco space at the moment. Safaricom dominance while assured for this brief moment, is under heavy attack
Back to top
WWW
  |
VituVingiSana
#2887 Posted : Tuesday, May 15, 2018 11:32:35 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,349
Location: Nairobi
mnandii wrote:


Hehe smile

Safcom is falling even after the stellar results! Fundies, how do you explain that?

I stated earlier on that Safcom should fall in circle wave ((iv)) which is what it is doing presently. The bottom should be in place at the range 27 - 24.75 . To respect Elliott's rule of fourth waves (Wave four should not overlap wave one) I don't expect the current fall to reach 21.70, the wave ((i)) top.

Once wave ((iv)) completes, expect a move back up above 33.50. You can as well BUY with your SL at 21.70 and target a move to above 33.50. Since wave 5 is extending Safcom will likely move significantly higher that the last high at 33.50, to likely above 40s.
Safcom, IMHO, was overpriced at 33/- based on the expected EBIT (85-89bn). Of course, circumstances may change.

I do believe Safaricom is a formidable firm but I found 33 pricey. I would buy at 22.

Of course, if Charts are the "way" then why share with us ;-) ... You can trade millions. Sterling will offer margin accounts and that could quickly vault you above folks like Kimani (Kakuzi), Adam (many firms), AB Patel (many firms), Ndegwas (NIC, Unga), etc quickly [if you are not already there!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Back to top
  |
wukan
#2888 Posted : Tuesday, May 15, 2018 3:27:09 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 1,654
Nairobi 20 decreased 20 points or 0.55% to 3582 on Monday May 14 from 3602 in the previous trading session.

Looks like 3450 will be sliced through...
Back to top
  |
muandiwambeu
#2889 Posted : Tuesday, May 15, 2018 3:35:13 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 8/28/2015
Posts: 1,247
mnandii wrote:
Lemme make things easy for the unconvinced. What Socionomics implies is that FINANCE and ECONOMICS are two completely separate fields. The tools you use in Finance are NOT the same ones you use in Economics. Economics is governed by Demand and Supply leading to Equilibrium price. In Economics higher prices lead to lower demand and lower prices lead to higher demand. This is a fundamental tenet of economics.

Finance is governed by social mood. In finance higher prices lead to higher demand and lower prices lead to lower demand. This is the complete opposite of what is found in Economics. e.g when the price of a stock rises more people buy in expectation of higher prices unlike in economics where e.g if the price of bread rises then fewer people would demand it.

So do not use the tools in economics to try to forecast financial markets.


@mnandii after babas maneno simmered and the so dull a market and a whacky work environment I feel so dull and lost out. How do I convert this negative energy to chums using socialnomics. I believe @obiero can echo this one after kq went mum on is golden card of open offer.
,Behold, a sower went forth to sow;....
Back to top
  |
Ericsson
#2890 Posted : Wednesday, May 16, 2018 11:45:41 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,808
Location: NAIROBI
@wukan
Market rout is easing.
Gains are now being seeing in Safaricom and KCB today
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
Back to top
WWW
  |
372 Pages«<287288289290291>»
Forum Jump  
You cannot post new topics in this forum.
You cannot reply to topics in this forum.
You cannot delete your posts in this forum.
You cannot edit your posts in this forum.
You cannot create polls in this forum.
You cannot vote in polls in this forum.

Wazua Investor Theme
Powered by YAF | YAF © 2003-2009, Yet Another Forum.NET
Copyright © 2026 Wazua.co.ke. All Rights Reserved.