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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
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wukan
#2841 Posted : Monday, April 23, 2018 8:03:25 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 1,654
lochaz-index wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
wukan wrote:
wukan wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
NASI hit an all time high yesterday at 186.6 with the NSE20 checking in at 3840 inches below a critical resistance point @3850. I think we have attained the March high as previously alluded to. Don't see much upside from here. Calling for a top. Bulls should get concerned if the downleg breaches 3450.


The macros point to different scenarios. CBK is pushing hard on monetary easing with all the risks. Treasury pushing on the fiscal consolidation while reforming the rate cap. Let's wait and see if the bulls will refuse.


The bulls refused. Nairobi 20 decreased 26 points or 0.69% to 3745 on Wednesday April 18 from 3771. 3676 is the area to watch next. Safaricom is taking us gently down the streamsmile


Market correction across all counters apart from a few which are resisting

These rock and roll type of rallies don't last long. Remember the one in 2010 after GFC...hard and fast...I tried chasing prices but couldn't then came the drop soon after. This one had all the characteristics of the 2010 rally down to a tee. Felt toppish after the August top which was followed by a consolidation (for six months) then the bottom falls out. Not to mention the bull was mainly pushed by banking stocks plus safaricom and all had heavy legs. Waiting to see how deep the correction will be which is mostly going to be determined by the severity of the fiscal crisis.

ION, 10yr UST is about to vault past the 3% mark, KES touched sub-100 intra-day(with a record reserve ammo to boot), crude is toppish at >$70pb and the USD is just coming out of a multi-year low. Reversals abound.


For now it's time to watch the dollar index in order to correctly catch the NSE waves. With muscular reserves CBK would have done monetary easing wonders if the rate cap was not around.
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Ericsson
#2842 Posted : Monday, April 23, 2018 8:11:25 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,808
Location: NAIROBI
The trick is
--GOK does massive cost cutting
--Ksh strengthens
--Repeal interest rates cap.Interest rates won't rise afterwards so long as GOK doesn't go on borrowing spree
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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lochaz-index
#2843 Posted : Monday, April 23, 2018 9:00:11 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
Ericsson wrote:
The trick is
--GOK does massive cost cutting
--Ksh strengthens
--Repeal interest rates cap.Interest rates won't rise afterwards so long as GOK doesn't go on borrowing spree

1. IMF is responsible for that one.

2. KES strength does not only depend on domestic matters but mostly on performance of the dollar. Even the recent rally in KES was not coz of improving internal fundamentals but rather dollar weakness. In a reversal the much KE can do is burn through its reserves in a futile defence attempt.

3. Same as no.2. Interest rates(locally and internationally) must go up whether the rate cap stays as is, is modified or repealed. GoK on the other hand will be forced to borrow massively in the domestic market from Q2 onwards if only just to manage interest payments...add any bullet principal payment and it ain't a pretty picture.

Note that recent growth has been GoK driven so any austerity on that front will be painful. No easy fix once the decay has gotten this far.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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  | | Edit by user: Monday, April 23, 2018 9:01 PM | Reason: Not specified
VituVingiSana
#2844 Posted : Monday, April 23, 2018 10:47:58 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,349
Location: Nairobi
Ericsson wrote:
The trick is
--GOK does massive cost cutting
--Ksh strengthens
--Repeal interest rates cap.Interest rates won't rise afterwards so long as GOK doesn't go on borrowing spree
When did you become a comedian?
"GOK does massive cost cutting" GoK can't even get folks to use the SGR to transport cargo without huge subsidies and coercion yet this was a $3-6bn [depending on sources] "investment" that was supposed to bring about immediate gains
Now the SGR is being extended to Naivasha
"...so long as GOK doesn't go on borrowing spree" I would like to see that happen but...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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  | | Edit by user: Monday, April 23, 2018 10:49 PM | Reason: Not specified
Fyatu
#2845 Posted : Tuesday, April 24, 2018 9:24:20 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 1/20/2011
Posts: 1,820
Location: Nakuru
Anybody out there who knows what is the PE of NSE20? Where can i get such data?
Dumb money becomes dumb only when it listens to smart money
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Ericsson
#2846 Posted : Tuesday, April 24, 2018 11:00:10 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,808
Location: NAIROBI
Fyatu wrote:
Anybody out there who knows what is the PE of NSE20? Where can i get such data?


PE for the companies that constitute NSE20 or NSE20?
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Fyatu
#2847 Posted : Tuesday, April 24, 2018 11:05:29 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 1/20/2011
Posts: 1,820
Location: Nakuru
Ericsson wrote:
Fyatu wrote:
Anybody out there who knows what is the PE of NSE20? Where can i get such data?


PE for the companies that constitute NSE20 or NSE20?



PE for companies that constitute NSE20. I wouldn't mind getting PE data for different sectors e.g., manufacturing, banking etc
Dumb money becomes dumb only when it listens to smart money
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Cornelius Vanderbilt
#2848 Posted : Tuesday, April 24, 2018 11:16:51 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 8/15/2015
Posts: 817
whats happening is just a retracement.which is good for the momentum of the rally.no need to freakout (unless freaking out is your speciallity!!)i do expect the stocks that rallied before the tracement to continue to rally once it resumes its course.banks as usual leading the way
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Pesa Nane
#2849 Posted : Tuesday, April 24, 2018 12:41:41 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 5/25/2012
Posts: 4,105
Location: 08c
Fyatu wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Fyatu wrote:
Anybody out there who knows what is the PE of NSE20? Where can i get such data?


PE for the companies that constitute NSE20 or NSE20?



PE for companies that constitute NSE20. I wouldn't mind getting PE data for different sectors e.g., manufacturing, banking etc


Trading Multiples: (D&B)
12 months Highs & Lows, YTD, Daily trading Volumes, EPS, DPS, NAVs, P/Es, P/Bs, Divs, Payout Ratios, ROEs, ROAs and all
Pesa Nane plans to be shilingi when he grows up.
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  | | Edit by user: Tuesday, April 24, 2018 12:47 PM | Reason: Not specified
Fyatu
#2850 Posted : Tuesday, April 24, 2018 1:23:13 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 1/20/2011
Posts: 1,820
Location: Nakuru
Pesa Nane wrote:
Fyatu wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Fyatu wrote:
Anybody out there who knows what is the PE of NSE20? Where can i get such data?


PE for the companies that constitute NSE20 or NSE20?



PE for companies that constitute NSE20. I wouldn't mind getting PE data for different sectors e.g., manufacturing, banking etc


Trading Multiples: (D&B)
12 months Highs & Lows, YTD, Daily trading Volumes, EPS, DPS, NAVs, P/Es, P/Bs, Divs, Payout Ratios, ROEs, ROAs and all


Shukran rafiki @Pesa Nane
Dumb money becomes dumb only when it listens to smart money
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