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How to tell NSE has bottomed out
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hisah
#2831 Posted : Friday, March 29, 2013 9:19:32 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
hisah wrote:
Mpesa bank has tested supply back @5.80 support and is now ready to challenge 6.50!

Fastening my safety belts for the coming ride till mid May when they announce results.
Do you have the date this time?

Tues May 14 2013 as per their website.

http://www.safaricom.co....board/investor-calendar

$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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youcan'tstopusnow
#2832 Posted : Friday, March 29, 2013 9:24:44 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
hisah wrote:
Insider buying - http://www.businessdaily...8/-/xnbc8u/-/index.html

Watch these firms. Already some have flipped huge returns this year.


Indeed AK and Britak rallied
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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WWW
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hisah
#2833 Posted : Friday, March 29, 2013 10:19:41 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
hisah wrote:
Insider buying - http://www.businessdaily...8/-/xnbc8u/-/index.html

Watch these firms. Already some have flipped huge returns this year.


Indeed AK and Britak rallied

As usual @youcant the memory bank keeper smile
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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hisah
#2834 Posted : Friday, March 29, 2013 10:50:05 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Btw this is captures the rubberband (spring) effect I'm referring too about this fearful bull. The snap out of the gates will be vigorous...

https://www.youtube.com/...edded&v=PP1n4fmw5ts


Oh, I forgot to update about current holdings: -

- Mpesa bank avg @3.20 (Sold 50% in Jan @5.80) - after results I'll decide whether to offload completely esp on mpesa and mshwari.
- CFC bank avg @40 since last year - after seeing the results first target is 75 (sell 50%) then ride the wave.
- Equity avg 28.50 (acquired days after selling entire KCB holding @38.50 on results announcement on Feb 28th - KCB avg was 21.50).
- JHL avg @191 - political premium trade - still holding with my price target (250) already surpassed. Waiting for results next week to confirm further direction.
- CFCI avg 7 - political premium trade - still holding awaiting target at 10.50.

- Kengen @9.65 but nothing to write home about the small share units since the rally happened faster than I could get my fill. This one I regret since I got a chunk @9.20 for div play then sold exdiv on Dec 5th only to come back in Jan and the bus just zoomed past my stage Sad

@aguy - kengen got the HFCK chunk last year for that exdiv play greed. So you can see my opportunity cost Sad Should have just bought HF...

And also a small holding on AK @4.40 bought back in Nov 2012. This I've discussing behind the scenes with @hunderwear who I'm sure is enjoying the explosive rally on AK as well as CFCI.

Definitely I need to reorganize this portfolio to a max of 4 stocks.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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guru267
#2835 Posted : Friday, March 29, 2013 1:10:36 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
Since we are in for a serious bull I have decided to stop frequent trading and instead invest all my portfolio in 3 solid plays for the next 5 years.. my holdings are below!

1. Kenya re - representing 38.15% of my portfolio and an average entry of 13.50... (exit plan of 75bob by 2017)

2. HFCK - Representing 31.3% of my portfolio and an average entry of 21.50... (Exit plan of 120bob by 2017)

3. Co op - representing 30.55% of my portfolio and an average entry of 14.. (Exit plan of 80bob by 2017)

It may seem Im overly exposed to the financial sector but in real sense it is this sector that is the constant darling of the NSE...
Plus within the sector I believe the portfolio mix is well diversified within the financial subsectors!

1. Re insurance (Kenya re)
2. Mortgage (HFCK)
3. Retail commercial banking (Co op)
4. insurance (Cic via co op)
5. Commercial property development (Kenya re)
6. Residential property development (HFCK)
7. Tier 1 bank (co op)
8. Tier 2 bank (HFCK)
9. NSE bull exposure (Kenya re)
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Aguytrying
#2836 Posted : Friday, March 29, 2013 1:24:22 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
@Hisah. You've done well for a trader. Trading is tricky!! ( now its trading. haha)

Ive had a decent Q1. With liberty 35%, Kengen 45%, HFCK 63% profits.being my star performers. On liberty?? you sell a stock then it rallies the next day. ha ha. but its the process not the outcome that matters for me.

I sold of Liberty(speculation) and Kengen(worried bout debt).

HFCK i continue to hold. Also WTK (10% up) since Jan. those are long term. Now looking for other long term holds. Wanna hold at least 7 stocks. ideally 10. My strategy it about diversifying investing in undervalued companies and selling them when over valued/ fairly valued. Eyes now on total, KK, TPSE (targeting turn arounds)
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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the deal
#2837 Posted : Friday, March 29, 2013 1:58:32 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
Its very easy to get carried away in a bull run...lets see what happens when the market clocks above 5000...valuations are currently above historic levels on most bluechip companies...we need strong earnings....super dividends...to keep the market excited....if nothing of that sort happens then a correction will come...I'm more worried about the current twin deficits (current & fiscal)...the effect of this deficits is that Treasury will have to borrow excessively resulting in yields in the fixed income market rising and its happening...3 month T-Bill yield 10.3% while inflation at 4.1%...once T-Bills creep to 15-20% consider this bull run slaughtered....guys will move money from stocks to bonds...banks will pass the cost of funds into the economy....I think thats the red flag for now.
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symbols
#2838 Posted : Friday, March 29, 2013 2:05:01 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 3/19/2013
Posts: 2,552
the deal wrote:
Its very easy to get carried away in a bull run...lets see what happens when the market clocks above 5000...valuations are currently above historic levels on most bluechip companies...we need strong earnings....super dividends...to keep the market excited....if nothing of that sort happens then a correction will come...I'm more worried about the current twin deficits (current & fiscal)...the effect of this deficits is that Treasury will have to borrow excessively resulting in yields in the fixed income market rising and its happening...3 month T-Bill yield 10.3% while inflation at 4.1%...once T-Bills creep to 15-20% consider this bull run slaughtered....guys will move money from stocks to bonds...banks will pass the cost of funds into the economy....I think thats the red flag for now.

Applause Applause Applause
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Mukiri
#2839 Posted : Friday, March 29, 2013 3:16:28 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2012
Posts: 5,222
hisah wrote:
Btw this is captures the rubberband (spring) effect I'm referring too about this fearful bull. The snap out of the gates will be vigorous...

https://www.youtube.com/...edded&v=PP1n4fmw5ts


Oh, I forgot to update about current holdings: -

- Mpesa bank avg @3.20 (Sold 50% in Jan @5.80) - after results I'll decide whether to offload completely esp on mpesa and mshwari.
- CFC bank avg @40 since last year - after seeing the results first target is 75 (sell 50%) then ride the wave.
- Equity avg 28.50 (acquired days after selling entire KCB holding @38.50 on results announcement on Feb 28th - KCB avg was 21.50).
- JHL avg @191 - political premium trade - still holding with my price target (250) already surpassed. Waiting for results next week to confirm further direction.
- CFCI avg 7 - political premium trade - still holding awaiting target at 10.50.

- Kengen @9.65 but nothing to write home about the small share units since the rally happened faster than I could get my fill. This one I regret since I got a chunk @9.20 for div play then sold exdiv on Dec 5th only to come back in Jan and the bus just zoomed past my stage Sad

@aguy - kengen got the HFCK chunk last year for that exdiv play greed. So you can see my opportunity cost Sad Should have just bought HF...

And also a small holding on AK @4.40 bought back in Nov 2012. This I've discussing behind the scenes with @hunderwear who I'm sure is enjoying the explosive rally on AK as well as CFCI.

Definitely I need to reorganize this portfolio to a max of 4 stocks.

Mboss, you've really mastered this game.

Proverbs 19:21
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Metasploit
#2840 Posted : Saturday, March 30, 2013 5:15:41 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 985
Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
I cant wait for Tuesday..The shares will rally like Madsmile

“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
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