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guru267
#541 Posted : Sunday, October 10, 2010 10:53:10 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
@hisah so when do you see this phony rally ending?? I need a definite date when you think the melt down will begin....

Ever since the dow started its upward movement from 6k we've heard analysts saying the exact same thing you are they wouldn't touch it because they are waiting for a double dip recession which has never materialised.....

Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
sheep
#542 Posted : Sunday, October 10, 2010 2:19:09 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 7/24/2008
Posts: 781
cyclical bulls last from 2-7yrs in a secular bear...we could say we're in the middle right now.

I dont think we are going to visit the 2009 march lows again...for that to happen a panic(20%+ in a matter of weeks) has to occur...a panic occurs in the middle of a bear market(30%+ decline) driving prices 50%+ down.

It is clear we're not in a bear so there can be no panic considering theres a lot of money waiting on the sidelines.

A crash(20% decline in a matter of days)occurs at the peak of a bull....considering the fact that this bull is pretty young(barely a year n a half old) that is not likely gonna happen right now as the shortest cyclical bulls lasted 2yrs.

The market may rally 1000pts to 2007 range which is the tradeable range of this bull after climbing the "wall of worry" for a few months and then when most people are fully invested ie no sideline cash...the great secular bear begins(around mid 2011-2016)...the trick is whether one will spot it...lots of volumes with no further progress(remember 2007)

Remember the markets are never wrong opinions often are...well this is just an opinion...but if one is the student of market valuations there is no way the current p/e of 20+ for the S&P is sustainable for even a decade.

The utimate goal of investing is to buy low sell high;if we re-write this core equation in psychology terms it becomes buy fear sell greed.
guru267
#543 Posted : Sunday, October 10, 2010 2:24:26 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
sheep wrote:

Remember the markets are never wrong opinions often are...well this is just an opinion...but if one is the student of market valuations there is no way the current p/e of 20+ for the S&P is sustainable for even a decade.



@sheep then what you are assuming that during this bull there will be no growth in earnings of S&P stocks to push the P/E down and push the S&P up?????
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
sheep
#544 Posted : Sunday, October 10, 2010 3:13:10 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 7/24/2008
Posts: 781
@Guru

I have been reading a great book by robert shiller called IRRATIONAL EXUBERANCE.
Below is a relationship between earnings and prices.
The prices are running far ahead of earnings more than they ever did in this century......click on the graphs especially the one of p/e ratio as a predictor of 20yr returns.

http://www.google.com/ur...2=6WawqYXXJnXz8-kvl74wAQ
The utimate goal of investing is to buy low sell high;if we re-write this core equation in psychology terms it becomes buy fear sell greed.
guru267
#545 Posted : Sunday, October 10, 2010 4:21:43 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
@sheep the question is dont you think earnings will catch up... Many campany's on the S&P have been announcing 50% and higher growth in profits which effectively brings down the tRAILING p/e of 20 to a forward P/E of 15 and below which represents a fairly priced market...

One can also look at it from the dividend yield front... The ideal dividend yield in any market is one which is higher than bank deposit rate and bond rates..

Stocks on the S&P have a trailing div yield of 2.2% on average which is higher than bond, bills and deposit rates with many of these companies promising to increase their dividends resulting in a higher forward yield....

Lastly just before the stock market crash in 2001 and 2008 stocks were trading at much higher than P/E of 20 many were at around 50 P/E....

so i will wait for Q3 results to prove my sentiments to be true...
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
sheep
#546 Posted : Sunday, October 10, 2010 4:43:48 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 7/24/2008
Posts: 781
I dont think growth of 50% growth will hold.....the normal growth of big US co.s is around 7-10%...considering the greatest growth occurs within 2 yrs from a bear,the time for big profits is nearly up and the high valuations may not hold for long.
The utimate goal of investing is to buy low sell high;if we re-write this core equation in psychology terms it becomes buy fear sell greed.
guru267
#547 Posted : Sunday, October 10, 2010 4:51:54 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
sheep wrote:
I dont think growth of 50% growth will hold.....the normal growth of big US co.s is around 7-10%...considering the greatest growth occurs within 2 yrs from a bear,the time for big profits is nearly up and the high valuations may not hold for long.


@sheep so what do you consider a fair valuation of the S&P????
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
sheep
#548 Posted : Sunday, October 10, 2010 5:06:56 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 7/24/2008
Posts: 781
historically around 14.7 trailing....before the beginning of great secular bulls the market has sold briefly for a trailing p/e 7 which is half fair value!!
The utimate goal of investing is to buy low sell high;if we re-write this core equation in psychology terms it becomes buy fear sell greed.
hisah
#549 Posted : Sunday, October 10, 2010 6:07:38 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
guru267 wrote:
@hisah so when do you see this phony rally ending?? I need a definite date when you think the melt down will begin....

Ever since the dow started its upward movement from 6k we've heard analysts saying the exact same thing you are they wouldn't touch it because they are waiting for a double dip recession which has never materialised.....


Dow at 6k had to bounce due to extreme bearish sentiments where sellers give up selling. Now the opposite is at play with traders/investors waiting for fed stimulus. It is no easy feat to time a market since Mr. Market can remain irrational longer than one's funding. My opinion is based on the fact that the western econ fundamentals are really ugly from record high public deficits now rivalling 3rd world countries to zero job creation etc. This is why the US fed is propping the market through OMO (twin buying of treasurys & stocks). Once they stop it now with no investors pushing solid buy volumes and they stop the senseless debt monetization (money printing spree) and get all the banks to own up their underwater mortgages and toxic derivatives without cooking figures, then would the true picture come out clearly. If the US fed manages to print a mammoth of paper as they've stated this november, the stocks will rally! But this will debase the $ and rally commodities too. So priced in dollars or currencies the stocks will look profitable, but priced in gold or platinum or silver, they'll be devalued further! It is this deception that is hidden from the public. Plus the inflationary effects of this mammoth printing will eventually catch up globally. Now the opposite of this bulls play would be, what if the fed stimulus is lower than expectation. Imagine that... I'd buy $ for some easy profits among the fiat currencies as we head for another credit crunch.
As long as gold continues the parabolic stampede against the major fiat currencies, I'm not a buyer in any of the euro & US markets. And for the last 5yrs, the gold returns have been outstanding compared to the global stocks and still remains the same.Obviously some stocks esp tech, nuclear energy & metals penny stocks will do well in these markets, but I don't track microecons, but macroecons which gives a wholistic econ visual. Australia too is on the verge of a real estate meltup, i'm waiting to see how this bubble will deflate. Oh, and we forgot the Dubai project. At least they both have commodities to handle the heat unlike the west that has almost nothing solid to back up their fiat money. If stocks were on a hot streak due to glowing recovery econ data, commodities esp precious metals would be sidelined. So in short we have a commodities bubble in the making as investors rotate out of one asset class (stocks) to another. The usual classic boom bust boom cycle which forecasts a commodities boom decade.
@sheep - which money is one the sidelines. The global funds flow is shrinking. Check the latest IMF publications.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
youcan'tstopusnow
#550 Posted : Sunday, October 10, 2010 9:40:45 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
Frontier markets reap from euro crisis www.businessdailyafrica....44/-/hh8d0s/-/index.html
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
hisah
#551 Posted : Monday, October 11, 2010 11:03:11 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
Frontier markets reap from euro crisis www.businessdailyafrica....44/-/hh8d0s/-/index.html



For this year, the returns have been outstanding. But, for the last 5 years compounded, nop. And the same story is reflected across all markets. Note, I'm not saying that all equity markets are bogus, emerging and frontier markets will be the leaders going forward while the west fights out the debt and default monster.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
hisah
#552 Posted : Monday, October 11, 2010 11:05:28 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977


This is last week's equity movement insider sellers vs buyers of the stocks listed on S&P500. The Oracle and Google corp sells are eye popping.

Does NSE have such records on daily basis?

http://www.zerohedge.com...ing-buying-update-1169-1
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Scubidu
#553 Posted : Tuesday, October 12, 2010 6:17:48 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
GOLD IS FAR FROM TOPPING, ITS JUST GETTING STARTED

The dollar rally could be starting now

Marc Faber: A major market "turning point" is coming

Read more:

http://goldscents.blogsp...m-topping-its-just.html

http://www.thedailycrux....tent/5990/US_dollar/eml

http://www.thedailycrux....5987/Interest_Rates/eml

CHRIS WHALEN DESCRIBES WHY 2011 COULD MAKE 2008 LOOK LIKE A CAKEWALK

Read more:

http://pragcap.com/chris...08-look-like-a-cakewalk

“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
hisah
#554 Posted : Tuesday, October 12, 2010 9:04:27 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Scubidu wrote:
GOLD IS FAR FROM TOPPING, ITS JUST GETTING STARTED

The dollar rally could be starting now

Marc Faber: A major market "turning point" is coming

Read more:

http://goldscents.blogsp...m-topping-its-just.html

http://www.thedailycrux....tent/5990/US_dollar/eml

http://www.thedailycrux....5987/Interest_Rates/eml

CHRIS WHALEN DESCRIBES WHY 2011 COULD MAKE 2008 LOOK LIKE A CAKEWALK

Read more:

http://pragcap.com/chris...08-look-like-a-cakewalk



@scubidu - this one is interesting - http://www.zerohedge.com...akawa/Gold%20GS%203.jpg
If US 10yr TIPS yield falls to 0.5%/yr gold should surge to $1600. At 0.00% yield gold would be headed to $2000.

Goldman sachs (GS) recommendations for this month - http://www.zerohedge.com...wa/GS%20Gold%20Reco.jpg

I'm usually skeptical about GS advice especially after the scandalous issues they had with their clients on derivatives in the 2008 credit crunch especially mortgage backed securities and oil contracts. But their FX team is good at calling the EURUSD tops and bottoms without fail..?! They called the 1.40 EURUSD top 2 weeks ago. So this confirms $ strength is coming soon. I wonder what this does to the USDKES rate if the $ rebound is huge.


Million dollar bet - http://goldprice.org/gol...llion-dollars-gold.html

$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
hisah
#555 Posted : Thursday, October 14, 2010 6:39:26 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Some headlines back in 1929 - 1931 when US stocks were going through the wringer.

Brokers Believe Worst Is Over and Recommend Buying of Real Bargains – New York Herald Tribune, October 27, 1929

“Time to Buy Stocks” John J. Raskob, one of the country’s leading industrial and political leaders
-October 30, 1929

“The Government’s business is in sound condition.” Andrew W. Mellon, Secretary of the Treasury
-December 5, 1929

“The worst is over without a doubt.” James J. Davis, Secretary of Labor.
- June 1930

We have hit bottom and are on the upswing.” James J. Davis, Secretary of Labor.
-September 12, 1930

“The depression has ended.” Dr. Julius Klein, Assistant Secretary of Commerce.
- June 9, 1931

NEW YORK JOINING IN BRITISH CREDIT; Federal Reserve Bank Agrees, if Requested, to Buy Prime Commercial Bills.
-August 2, 1931
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Scubidu
#556 Posted : Thursday, October 14, 2010 7:45:48 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
@hisah. Jim Sinclair, martin armstrong. I have been meaning to read all there stuff but can't find the time. Keep posting. I'm learning so much from you.

And just to get off topic...do people have meat futures...apparently they now have meat that doesn't get bad quickly. lol. Actually reminds me of the movie Food Inc and The Corporation. Amazing what American's will put in their bodies.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/...mposition-for-six-months
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
hisah
#557 Posted : Thursday, October 14, 2010 8:55:08 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
[quote=Scubidu]@hisah. Jim Sinclair, martin armstrong. I have been meaning to read all there stuff but can't find the time. Keep posting. I'm learning so much from you.

And just to get off topic...do people have meat futures...apparently they now have meat that doesn't get bad quickly. lol. Actually reminds me of the movie Food Inc and The Corporation. Amazing what American's will put in their bodies.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/...position-for-six-months[/quote]



In China they dry roast meat in small strips (stir-fry type) and roll it in candy - meat candy lollipop! With current freezer technology I wouldn't be surprised to see a meaty futures.

Research on liquid chicken, what is used to make McNuggests. Despite the numerous studies done on the harmful health effects of too much fast foods or junk foods, we humans still want to try the forbidden Sad
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Scubidu
#558 Posted : Thursday, October 14, 2010 9:22:59 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
@hisah. eehh "meat candy lollipops"...that's messed up dawg.
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
hisah
#559 Posted : Friday, October 15, 2010 10:37:00 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
http://www.businessdaily...4/-/msn2ho/-/index.html

This inflation rate model manipulation is going to create chaos in future to the money supply. As long as the economy recovers and expands, bankers will overlook it. But during a pause or recession, bankers might boycott using this gauge and a money crunch will follow suit.
It's no wonder the Kenyan banks ignore the CBK's fund rate (CBR) and refuse to lower the loan interest rates to single digits since the risk models are out of sync with the Banker.
What is keeping the KES rate lower against the €, £ & $ if indeed the econ is on recovery and is expanding?
At the moment I can't understand this ultra low inflation rate & a devalued KES.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
karanjakinuthia
#560 Posted : Saturday, October 16, 2010 9:43:35 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
Joint Venture and/or Takeover - Engineering, Construction, Property, Finance and Mortgage Sectors

A Singapore based fund is funding +100 Million Euro into a European holding company, listed on Frankfurt Stock Exchange, who is engaged in engineering, construction, property, finance and mortgage sectors.

1. They are looking to engage with liquid listed companies in order to take opportunity to draw down their funding requirements

2. With the funding, it is seeking to take over and/or JV with ebitda positive companies internationally.

Some of the key criteria:

a) SECTORS
- Engineering & construction
- Property
- Finance & mortgage


b) KEY CHARACTERISTICS OF TARGETS
- Excellent brand
- Capacity & ability to ramp up
- Asset rich
- Multiple revenue streams
- Listed or private
- Efficient decision making process and capability
to provide accretive ebitda
- Ability to add value geographically and strategically
- Acquisition model based on earn out, part cash, part equity.

Please let me know if you know of a good candidate via karanjakinuthia@hotmail.com
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