Wazua
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ARM HY2017
Rank: Elder Joined: 4/22/2010 Posts: 11,522 Location: Nairobi
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wukan wrote:maka wrote:Angelica _ann wrote:rwitre wrote:lochaz-index wrote:Still think that balance sheet is hiding alot more skeletons than what has been revealed so far. Time will tell. They keep coming @Obiero is all smiles  For the umpteenth time never ever buy a corporate bond in Kenya... Never... What about safaricom and kengen bonds? ARM was junk bond In the bonds section... I mentioned safaricom and Eabl... When they were doing that bond ARM was a darling you wouldnt have termed it junk then.... possunt quia posse videntur
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/7/2012 Posts: 11,908
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maka wrote:wukan wrote:maka wrote:Angelica _ann wrote:rwitre wrote:lochaz-index wrote:Still think that balance sheet is hiding alot more skeletons than what has been revealed so far. Time will tell. They keep coming @Obiero is all smiles For the umpteenth time never ever buy a corporate bond in Kenya... Never... What about safaricom and kengen bonds? ARM was junk bond In the bonds section... I mentioned safaricom and Eabl... When they were doing that bond ARM was a darling you wouldnt have termed it junk then.... Reminds me of Commercial Paper in the 90s  In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,118 Location: Nairobi
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Fyatu wrote:rwitre wrote:lochaz-index wrote:Still think that balance sheet is hiding alot more skeletons than what has been revealed so far. Time will tell. They keep coming The time is nigh for Paunrana to make an appearance on rich Tv( https://www.rich.co.ke/rctools/richtv.php) as he used to do in the past and put the record straight. Does he have the cash to hire AKS 😂😂😂 AKS isn’t free! Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,118 Location: Nairobi
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The only “safe” (in commas) corporate bonds are those issues by firms with well-known parents eg EABL, Stanbic, Safaricom (redeemed), perhaps KenGen (with GoK’s backing), etc. It’s better to invest in GoK paper than bonds of local firms on a risk-reward basis! Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/13/2015 Posts: 1,595
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VituVingiSana wrote:The only “safe” (in commas) corporate bonds are those issues by firms with well-known parents eg EABL, Stanbic, Safaricom (redeemed), perhaps KenGen (with GoK’s backing), etc.
It’s better to invest in GoK paper than bonds of local firms on a risk-reward basis! I agree with you on the first part. Second part I would disagree given the experience in 1994 when GoK defaulted and rescheduled debt. During that period private sector commercial paper went burst. Just like then the public sector is overextended showing up in economic inefficiency. That inefficiency must resolve/re-balance) and when it does you don't want to be holding GoK long-term paper.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,118 Location: Nairobi
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wukan wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:The only “safe” (in commas) corporate bonds are those issues by firms with well-known parents eg EABL, Stanbic, Safaricom (redeemed), perhaps KenGen (with GoK’s backing), etc.
It’s better to invest in GoK paper than bonds of local firms on a risk-reward basis! I agree with you on the first part. Second part I would disagree given the experience in 1994 when GoK defaulted and rescheduled debt. During that period private sector commercial paper went burst. Just like then the public sector is overextended showing up in economic inefficiency. That inefficiency must resolve/re-balance) and when it does you don't want to be holding GoK long-term paper. @wukan - Did GoK pay off the rescheduled debt? It might not have been ideal but compare GoK paper of a similar duration to paper of local firms eg ARM, Chase, Imperial, etc. I was NOT comparing GoK debt to other investments eg land, USD, debt issued by USA, Japan or U.K. Are you saying holding local companies’ debt is safer than GoK debt? Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/13/2015 Posts: 1,595
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VituVingiSana wrote:wukan wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:The only “safe” (in commas) corporate bonds are those issues by firms with well-known parents eg EABL, Stanbic, Safaricom (redeemed), perhaps KenGen (with GoK’s backing), etc.
It’s better to invest in GoK paper than bonds of local firms on a risk-reward basis! I agree with you on the first part. Second part I would disagree given the experience in 1994 when GoK defaulted and rescheduled debt. During that period private sector commercial paper went burst. Just like then the public sector is overextended showing up in economic inefficiency. That inefficiency must resolve/re-balance) and when it does you don't want to be holding GoK long-term paper. @wukan - Did GoK pay off the rescheduled debt? It might not have been ideal but compare GoK paper of a similar duration to paper of local firms eg ARM, Chase, Imperial, etc. I was NOT comparing GoK debt to other investments eg land, USD, debt issued by USA, Japan or U.K. Are you saying holding local companies’ debt is safer than GoK debt? Yes GoK eventually paid off the debt after further rescheduling in 2000 and 2004. When GoK was rescheduling in 1994 Uchumi supermarkets was making a killing in retail and t-bills I classify ARM,Chase and Imperial in junk status. A better like for like comparison would be GoK paper vs KCB/Equity/Safcom corporate debt of similar duration. Which one would you prefer? Remember GoK has coercive powers it can default and buyback your bond at a discount.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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maka wrote:Angelica _ann wrote:rwitre wrote:lochaz-index wrote:Still think that balance sheet is hiding alot more skeletons than what has been revealed so far. Time will tell. They keep coming @Obiero is all smiles For the umpteenth time never ever buy a corporate bond in Kenya... Never... Such a pity that is the corporate bond market in KE. AAA corporate bond should be the safest out there. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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wukan wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:wukan wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:The only “safe” (in commas) corporate bonds are those issues by firms with well-known parents eg EABL, Stanbic, Safaricom (redeemed), perhaps KenGen (with GoK’s backing), etc.
It’s better to invest in GoK paper than bonds of local firms on a risk-reward basis! I agree with you on the first part. Second part I would disagree given the experience in 1994 when GoK defaulted and rescheduled debt. During that period private sector commercial paper went burst. Just like then the public sector is overextended showing up in economic inefficiency. That inefficiency must resolve/re-balance) and when it does you don't want to be holding GoK long-term paper. @wukan - Did GoK pay off the rescheduled debt? It might not have been ideal but compare GoK paper of a similar duration to paper of local firms eg ARM, Chase, Imperial, etc. I was NOT comparing GoK debt to other investments eg land, USD, debt issued by USA, Japan or U.K. Are you saying holding local companies’ debt is safer than GoK debt? Yes GoK eventually paid off the debt after further rescheduling in 2000 and 2004. When GoK was rescheduling in 1994 Uchumi supermarkets was making a killing in retail and t-bills I classify ARM,Chase and Imperial in junk status. A better like for like comparison would be GoK paper vs KCB/Equity/Safcom corporate debt of similar duration. Which one would you prefer? Remember GoK has coercive powers it can default and buyback your bond at a discount. You don't want to be caught being long on any govt paper anywhere in the world right now...it is just bad timing. AAA corporate bond is the safest hideout. Despite popular opinion, defaults on govt papers happens oftenly, sometimes en masse (during a sovereign debt crisis). ARM even at it's very peak was never AAA material. Didn't centum also issue one last year? That will be interesting to watch. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,530 Location: nairobi
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Angelica _ann wrote:maka wrote:wukan wrote:maka wrote:Angelica _ann wrote:rwitre wrote:lochaz-index wrote:Still think that balance sheet is hiding alot more skeletons than what has been revealed so far. Time will tell. They keep coming @Obiero is all smiles For the umpteenth time never ever buy a corporate bond in Kenya... Never... What about safaricom and kengen bonds? ARM was junk bond In the bonds section... I mentioned safaricom and Eabl... When they were doing that bond ARM was a darling you wouldnt have termed it junk then.... Reminds me of Commercial Paper in the 90s And people are still buying this piece of junk..
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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obiero wrote:Angelica _ann wrote:maka wrote:wukan wrote:maka wrote:Angelica _ann wrote:rwitre wrote:lochaz-index wrote:Still think that balance sheet is hiding alot more skeletons than what has been revealed so far. Time will tell. They keep coming @Obiero is all smiles For the umpteenth time never ever buy a corporate bond in Kenya... Never... What about safaricom and kengen bonds? ARM was junk bond In the bonds section... I mentioned safaricom and Eabl... When they were doing that bond ARM was a darling you wouldnt have termed it junk then.... Reminds me of Commercial Paper in the 90s And people are still buying this piece of junk.. Someone is seriously mopping up ARM. Demand was zero yesterday afternoon then someone showed up just before market close and cleaned out all supply from 3.50 to 3.90. Btw I sold at 3.80 yesterday banking 41% profits. The negative media coverage is not good for the rally. Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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sparkly wrote:obiero wrote:Angelica _ann wrote:maka wrote:wukan wrote:maka wrote:Angelica _ann wrote:rwitre wrote:lochaz-index wrote:Still think that balance sheet is hiding alot more skeletons than what has been revealed so far. Time will tell. They keep coming @Obiero is all smiles For the umpteenth time never ever buy a corporate bond in Kenya... Never... What about safaricom and kengen bonds? ARM was junk bond In the bonds section... I mentioned safaricom and Eabl... When they were doing that bond ARM was a darling you wouldnt have termed it junk then.... Reminds me of Commercial Paper in the 90s And people are still buying this piece of junk.. Someone is seriously mopping up ARM. Demand was zero yesterday afternoon then someone showed up just before market close and cleaned out all supply from 3.50 to 3.90. Btw I sold at 3.80 yesterday banking 41% profits. The negative media coverage is not good for the rally. That's a very decent return in such a short time. Congrats!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,701 Location: NAIROBI
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More and more debt. https://www.businessdail...57018-6h9b18/index.html
Paunrana stake to be further diluted. The company needs to get more of its products into the market. IFC and CDC should take ARM through a merger with an existing player Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,118 Location: Nairobi
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1) It reads like ARM wants to replace Stanbic and AFC debt with cheaper debt from IFC & CDC. There are multiple lenders (in the Annual Report) and interest rates range from 10.5% to 17.5% depending on the lender and currency. 2) If ARM can replace these $140mn loans with cheaper debt (but increase the currency risk) it may emerge from this debacle stronger. 3) I do not think the Paunrana stake will be diluted if just the loans are replaced BUT I do not understand why CDC hasn't put its own people into executive roles. 4) Yes, ARM needs a strategic investor but who would want ARM's assets at a "fair" price? And who, except Bamburi, has the cash to buy them? [Bamburi might not be allowed to do so given its #1 position in Kenya/EAC] Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,118 Location: Nairobi
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sparkly wrote:obiero wrote:Angelica _ann wrote:maka wrote:wukan wrote:maka wrote:Angelica _ann wrote:rwitre wrote:lochaz-index wrote:Still think that balance sheet is hiding alot more skeletons than what has been revealed so far. Time will tell. They keep coming @Obiero is all smiles For the umpteenth time never ever buy a corporate bond in Kenya... Never... What about safaricom and kengen bonds? ARM was junk bond In the bonds section... I mentioned safaricom and Eabl... When they were doing that bond ARM was a darling you wouldnt have termed it junk then.... Reminds me of Commercial Paper in the 90s And people are still buying this piece of junk.. Someone is seriously mopping up ARM. Demand was zero yesterday afternoon then someone showed up just before market close and cleaned out all supply from 3.50 to 3.90. Btw I sold at 3.80 yesterday banking 41% profits. The negative media coverage is not good for the rally.  Did you just abandon me? Did you just do an @Obiero on me? Pump and Dump? Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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VituVingiSana wrote:sparkly wrote:obiero wrote:Angelica _ann wrote:maka wrote:wukan wrote:maka wrote:Angelica _ann wrote:rwitre wrote:lochaz-index wrote:Still think that balance sheet is hiding alot more skeletons than what has been revealed so far. Time will tell. They keep coming @Obiero is all smiles For the umpteenth time never ever buy a corporate bond in Kenya... Never... What about safaricom and kengen bonds? ARM was junk bond In the bonds section... I mentioned safaricom and Eabl... When they were doing that bond ARM was a darling you wouldnt have termed it junk then.... Reminds me of Commercial Paper in the 90s And people are still buying this piece of junk.. Someone is seriously mopping up ARM. Demand was zero yesterday afternoon then someone showed up just before market close and cleaned out all supply from 3.50 to 3.90. Btw I sold at 3.80 yesterday banking 41% profits. The negative media coverage is not good for the rally. Did you just abandon me? Did you just do an @Obiero on me? Pump and Dump? Not at all @VVS . I belief ARM has good prospects for the medium - long term but will remain volatile in the short term. Hence I took profits hoping to catch it lower later in the 2.00 - 2.50 range. I might be wrong however. It might zoom and hit 6.00 in which case I will just watch as you enjoy your profits. Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,118 Location: Nairobi
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sparkly wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:sparkly wrote:obiero wrote:Angelica _ann wrote:maka wrote:wukan wrote:maka wrote:Angelica _ann wrote:rwitre wrote:lochaz-index wrote:Still think that balance sheet is hiding alot more skeletons than what has been revealed so far. Time will tell. They keep coming @Obiero is all smiles For the umpteenth time never ever buy a corporate bond in Kenya... Never... What about safaricom and kengen bonds? ARM was junk bond In the bonds section... I mentioned safaricom and Eabl... When they were doing that bond ARM was a darling you wouldnt have termed it junk then.... Reminds me of Commercial Paper in the 90s And people are still buying this piece of junk.. Someone is seriously mopping up ARM. Demand was zero yesterday afternoon then someone showed up just before market close and cleaned out all supply from 3.50 to 3.90. Btw I sold at 3.80 yesterday banking 41% profits. The negative media coverage is not good for the rally. Did you just abandon me? Did you just do an @Obiero on me? Pump and Dump? Not at all @VVS . I belief ARM has good prospects for the medium - long term but will remain volatile in the short term. Hence I took profits hoping to catch it lower later in the 2.00 - 2.50 range. I might be wrong however. It might zoom and hit 6.00 in which case I will just watch as you enjoy your profits. I hope I did my "homework" well. Whereas, I am looking at it a long-term investment, I am not confident enough to make it a core investment. Yet. There's a lot of noise but it seems CDC is going to help ARM on the Working Capital issue. I think the 1H (loss expected) results may take 2 months to release but it should provide more info. Ultimately, it seems the salvation may be a Strategic Investor coming into ARM by injecting cash and liaising with CDC to control and manage the firm by replacing the Paunrana family. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/20/2015 Posts: 2,811 Location: Mombasa
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sparkly wrote:obiero wrote:Angelica _ann wrote:maka wrote:wukan wrote:maka wrote:Angelica _ann wrote:rwitre wrote:lochaz-index wrote:Still think that balance sheet is hiding alot more skeletons than what has been revealed so far. Time will tell. They keep coming @Obiero is all smiles For the umpteenth time never ever buy a corporate bond in Kenya... Never... What about safaricom and kengen bonds? ARM was junk bond In the bonds section... I mentioned safaricom and Eabl... When they were doing that bond ARM was a darling you wouldnt have termed it junk then.... Reminds me of Commercial Paper in the 90s And people are still buying this piece of junk.. Someone is seriously mopping up ARM. Demand was zero yesterday afternoon then someone showed up just before market close and cleaned out all supply from 3.50 to 3.90. Btw I sold at 3.80 yesterday banking 41% profits. The negative media coverage is not good for the rally. Congrats bro to have enjoyed a juicy rally in a short period. Meanwhile bring that money into cryptos where you'll accumulate 41% profit daily...  John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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Spikes wrote:sparkly wrote:obiero wrote:Angelica _ann wrote:maka wrote:wukan wrote:maka wrote:Angelica _ann wrote:rwitre wrote:lochaz-index wrote:Still think that balance sheet is hiding alot more skeletons than what has been revealed so far. Time will tell. They keep coming @Obiero is all smiles For the umpteenth time never ever buy a corporate bond in Kenya... Never... What about safaricom and kengen bonds? ARM was junk bond In the bonds section... I mentioned safaricom and Eabl... When they were doing that bond ARM was a darling you wouldnt have termed it junk then.... Reminds me of Commercial Paper in the 90s And people are still buying this piece of junk.. Someone is seriously mopping up ARM. Demand was zero yesterday afternoon then someone showed up just before market close and cleaned out all supply from 3.50 to 3.90. Btw I sold at 3.80 yesterday banking 41% profits. The negative media coverage is not good for the rally. Congrats bro to have enjoyed a juicy rally in a short period. Meanwhile bring that money into cryptos where you'll accumulate 41% profit daily... Cryptos nimekuachia. Let me stick to Consultancy, Stocks and Real Estate. Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 4/23/2014 Posts: 910
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World Bank unit to buy out Sh12bn ARM Cement loans https://www.businessdail...57018-6h9b18/index.html
- I don't know what the rush is about, this is bound to take a while. “You can get in way more trouble with a good idea than a bad idea, because you forget that the good idea has limits.” - Ben Graham
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