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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
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VituVingiSana
#521 Posted : Thursday, July 09, 2015 12:28:15 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
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Location: Nairobi
Ericsson wrote:
@VituVingiSana;
There will be no rights issue for the case of Uchumi.
So long as their is goodwill from customers revival without rights issue is possible.
Bear in mind now that there is a freeze in expansion;maximise on the current branches.

There will be a 'dilution' in the works whether by sale to a Strategic Investor or a Rights Issue or Debt Conversion. Anyway, I have no stake in it so doesn't bother me BUT I feel sorry to see such a brand die or be diminished.

The sale of the land may not be as easy (or immediate) as it sounds with the current interest rates and 'tight' market for cash. Plus the cash is going to repay debtors [which is good] but not expansion.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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mnandii
#522 Posted : Saturday, July 11, 2015 10:58:37 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
mnandii wrote:
enyands wrote:
mnandii wrote:
Action on the NSE 20 share Index from the 5499 level so far.



Expect a three wave (A, B, C) move this month to complete wave [2] as depicted on the chart.

Wave A should terminate at approx. 5100.

NB. There is a possibility of one more drop below 4786.74 before wave A commences.




Bwana these waves are too much . In layman's language when you say commences on wave A does it mean that we are going through another round of serious beatings ama it's over . Some of us don't understand this waves .In simple words is it getting worse or it will easen up



NSE 20 share Index is likely in a (B) wave. However, my chart source at Financial Times is not loading so I will post a chart as soon as will be possible.
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mnandii
#523 Posted : Saturday, July 11, 2015 11:00:13 AM
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Joined: 10/11/2006
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The Head of Elliott Wave International's Educational Resources, Wayne Gorman, has 30+ years of experience as a risk manager and trader. He began his career at Citibank, managing trades in money markets and derivatives. He's also traded full-time with his own capital using Elliott waves.

Get Wayne's recommendation on the best way to learn the Wave Principle in this interview.

link
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mnandii
#524 Posted : Saturday, July 11, 2015 11:02:43 AM
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Joined: 10/11/2006
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The Fastest, Self-Directed path to Elliott Wave Success
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mnandii
#525 Posted : Saturday, July 11, 2015 11:05:38 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
VituVingiSana wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
@VituVingiSana;
There will be no rights issue for the case of Uchumi.
So long as their is goodwill from customers revival without rights issue is possible.
Bear in mind now that there is a freeze in expansion;maximise on the current branches.

There will be a 'dilution' in the works whether by sale to a Strategic Investor or a Rights Issue or Debt Conversion. Anyway, I have no stake in it so doesn't bother me BUT I feel sorry to see such a brand die or be diminished.

The sale of the land may not be as easy (or immediate) as it sounds with the current interest rates and 'tight' market for cash. Plus the cash is going to repay debtors [which is good] but not expansion.


Also, the land is only valuable if it is sold now. Guys should note that we expect even land prices to fall alot. Sad
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#526 Posted : Saturday, July 11, 2015 11:13:42 AM
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Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
lochaz-index wrote:
hisah wrote:
mnandii wrote:
hisah wrote:
@mnandii - I'm on the opposite side of your USDKES view. The KE econ is on slow puncture tyres. Where is the KES strength going to come from? That CBR rate hike was meant to scare the bears, but should USD breach 100 handle we are off to the all time highs! Can cbk afford another dramatic CBR hike of 150bps or more this year with the econ facing headwinds?

It is for these 2 reasons that I've now turned defensive in the market. CBR hike means liquidity squeeze/drain which knocks the econ while a crimped economy offers no incentive for a bullish case on equities.



smile smile

We get to watch btw Fundies and Elliott who gets it right. I like this!

2 weeks later and USDKES has broken above the 100 psychological handle.

MPC meets today. I don't expect any positive stuff from the new cbk head. The econ slump has put MPC in a straitjacket fix.

USDKES will test that all time high and break above. That's when the real pain will start.

I'm selling out of the NSE since I don't want to participate in the carnage I foresee coming once 4400 handle breaks down. My final sell signal has triggered with USDKES closing above 100 handle. If the econ slump accelerates, which I expect, by Sept end NSE20 will be testing 4000 handle or lower! Global markets will also be lower by that Sept.


Indeed, that 4400 mark will officially confirm the bear is in town not flirting with the market as is the case now. As for the KES am still of opinion that things are going to get worse by around September once cost push inflation sets in proper unless somehow oil prices take a serious plunge between now and then.

Unknown factors which may also come into play are the fallouts from Greece situation and the Chinese stock markets. The snowball effect from those two could trigger another full on global crisis.


Oil Price will Fall Definitely!

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hisah
#527 Posted : Saturday, July 11, 2015 11:20:05 AM
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Joined: 8/4/2010
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Massive rate hike but still KES has no legs! USD/KES closed @101.95 yesterday!

So are we soon to see CBK start china like market intervention? "Arrest the KES short sellers blah blah blah?"
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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murchr
#528 Posted : Saturday, July 11, 2015 5:13:05 PM
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Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
hisah wrote:
Massive rate hike but still KES has no legs! USD/KES closed @101.95 yesterday!

So are we soon to see CBK start china like market intervention? "Arrest the KES short sellers blah blah blah?"


There's something most are not getting;

1. The dollar is getting stronger because the economy is on steroids, this is even worrying US exporters because their exports are now expensive.

2. The tightening of the US monetary policy or even the hint of it coming up is driving the dollar up.

what will rescue KE is pumping out exports (More flowers, minerals, tea, coffee, etc) or bring in more tourists. Increase tax on non - essential imports (esp cloths) Encourage FDI. Hakuna namna ingine
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
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mnandii
#529 Posted : Sunday, July 12, 2015 3:33:53 PM
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Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
hisah wrote:
Massive rate hike but still KES has no legs! USD/KES closed @101.95 yesterday!

So are we soon to see CBK start china like market intervention? "Arrest the KES short sellers blah blah blah?"

Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#530 Posted : Sunday, July 12, 2015 3:42:24 PM
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Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
NSE 20 Share Index

Long term chart



Please note the change in labels.

Wave (A) ending on March '09 is better counted as a zigzag rather than an impulse.

Wave (B) now consists of waves W, X and Y (in green colour). The implication of this labelling is that wave (B) has either ended at 5499.64 as on Mar.' 15 OR we may have one more final move above 5499.64 since B waves of flats retrace at least 90% of A waves.

In the short term however, a move toward 4000 level is expected soon.

Short term chart coming up.

Regards.
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mnandii
#531 Posted : Sunday, July 12, 2015 3:46:08 PM
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Posts: 2,304
As always, you can right click on image > Open Image in New Tab to see the image better.
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mnandii
#532 Posted : Sunday, July 12, 2015 4:34:12 PM
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Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
To ensure consistency in labelling with our long term chart, I have also updated the wave counts in this short term chart.



So there we are.

We have our impulse wave drop from 5499 level in March and with wave counts (i) (ii) (iii) (iv) and (v) making up minute wave [i] at 4744.66.

We now have wave (a) at 4906.07 and a developing wave (b), which has already broken below the low of our impulse. This suggests that the entire wave [ii], which should consist of waves (a) (b) and (c), will be an expanded flat. We therefore expect wave (b) to bottom soon and our wave (c) to move up above 4906 level.

An alternate count would suggest that wave [ii] is already complete at 4906.07 and we are now falling in wave [iii]. There is a level which, if broken, would suggest that is the case. See below:

Number Crunching:

Length Wave [i] = {5499.64 - 4744.66} = 754.98

Length Wave (a) = {4906.07 - 4744.66} = 161.41

So wave (a) was close to Fibonacci 23.6% of wave [i].

Since we expect a flat, we can predict a target for wave (b) as shown below.

B waves of expanded flats are usually 123.6% of the A wave.

Therefore:

123.6% of 161.41 = 199.50

Subtracting this value from the end of wave (a) gives us:

{4906.07 - 199.50} = 4706.57

And we don't expect wave (b) to be more than 138.2% of wave (a).

138.2% of 161.41 = 223.07

Thus, wave (b) should not go below: {4906.07 - 223.07} = 4683

As stated before, if 4683 is broken to the downside then we'll know that we are in the wave [iii].

SUMMARY:

NSE 20 Share Index is expected to bottom at (or near) 4706.57 then start a powerful move up in wave (c).




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bartum
#533 Posted : Sunday, July 12, 2015 5:37:02 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/11/2010
Posts: 1,011
Location: nairobi
mnandii wrote:
To ensure consistency in labelling with our long term chart, I have also updated the wave counts in this short term chart.



So there we are.

We have our impulse wave drop from 5499 level in March and with wave counts (i) (ii) (iii) (iv) and (v) making up minute wave [i] at 4744.66.

We now have wave (a) at 4906.07 and a developing wave (b), which has already broken below the low of our impulse. This suggests that the entire wave [ii], which should consist of waves (a) (b) and (c), will be an expanded flat. We therefore expect wave (b) to bottom soon and our wave (c) to move up above 4906 level.

An alternate count would suggest that wave [ii] is already complete at 4906.07 and we are now falling in wave [iii]. There is a level which, if broken, would suggest that is the case. See below:

Number Crunching:

Length Wave [i] = {5499.64 - 4744.66} = 754.98

Length Wave (a) = {4906.07 - 4744.66} = 161.41

So wave (a) was close to Fibonacci 23.6% of wave [i].

Since we expect a flat, we can predict a target for wave (b) as shown below.

B waves of expanded flats are usually 123.6% of the A wave.

Therefore:

123.6% of 161.41 = 199.50

Subtracting this value from the end of wave (a) gives us:

{4906.07 - 199.50} = 4706.57

And we don't expect wave (b) to be more than 138.2% of wave (a).

138.2% of 161.41 = 223.07

Thus, wave (b) should not go below: {4906.07 - 223.07} = 4683

As stated before, if 4683 is broken to the downside then we'll know that we are in the wave [iii].

SUMMARY:

NSE 20 Share Index is expected to bottom at (or near) 4706.57 then start a powerful move up in wave (c).


mnandi you are real veteran +
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mnandii
#534 Posted : Sunday, July 12, 2015 6:25:27 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
bartum wrote:
mnandii wrote:
To ensure consistency in labelling with our long term chart, I have also updated the wave counts in this short term chart.



So there we are.

We have our impulse wave drop from 5499 level in March and with wave counts (i) (ii) (iii) (iv) and (v) making up minute wave [i] at 4744.66.

We now have wave (a) at 4906.07 and a developing wave (b), which has already broken below the low of our impulse. This suggests that the entire wave [ii], which should consist of waves (a) (b) and (c), will be an expanded flat. We therefore expect wave (b) to bottom soon and our wave (c) to move up above 4906 level.

An alternate count would suggest that wave [ii] is already complete at 4906.07 and we are now falling in wave [iii]. There is a level which, if broken, would suggest that is the case. See below:

Number Crunching:

Length Wave [i] = {5499.64 - 4744.66} = 754.98

Length Wave (a) = {4906.07 - 4744.66} = 161.41

So wave (a) was close to Fibonacci 23.6% of wave [i].

Since we expect a flat, we can predict a target for wave (b) as shown below.

B waves of expanded flats are usually 123.6% of the A wave.

Therefore:

123.6% of 161.41 = 199.50

Subtracting this value from the end of wave (a) gives us:

{4906.07 - 199.50} = 4706.57

And we don't expect wave (b) to be more than 138.2% of wave (a).

138.2% of 161.41 = 223.07

Thus, wave (b) should not go below: {4906.07 - 223.07} = 4683

As stated before, if 4683 is broken to the downside then we'll know that we are in the wave [iii].

SUMMARY:

NSE 20 Share Index is expected to bottom at (or near) 4706.57 then start a powerful move up in wave (c).


mnandi you are real veteran +




Thanks bro! smile
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mnandii
#535 Posted : Sunday, July 12, 2015 6:27:00 PM
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Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304


I continue to consider that USDKES should not reach 106.80 level.
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iris
#536 Posted : Monday, July 13, 2015 11:56:11 AM
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mnandii wrote:


I continue to consider that USDKES should not reach 106.80 level.


Shifting of goal posts? post #507
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mkonomtupu
#537 Posted : Monday, July 13, 2015 12:25:45 PM
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@mnandii, good stuff.

Looking at the long term chart drawing a straight line under the troughs from Sept 02, March 09 and point X(2011), then 4000(or slightly below that) looks like the point at which the current correction will terminate. I would go with the alternate count that we are falling in wave[iii] targeting the 4,000 mark(although that depends if we breach 4,700 with no bounce back and then on how aggressive CBK is in shielding the kenya shilling from further loss- today we are 102.55 with no intervention)

Happy trading
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hisah
#538 Posted : Tuesday, July 14, 2015 2:02:33 PM
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Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
mkonomtupu wrote:
@mnandii, good stuff.

Looking at the long term chart drawing a straight line under the troughs from Sept 02, March 09 and point X(2011), then 4000(or slightly below that) looks like the point at which the current correction will terminate. I would go with the alternate count that we are falling in wave[iii] targeting the 4,000 mark(although that depends if we breach 4,700 with no bounce back and then on how aggressive CBK is in shielding the kenya shilling from further loss- today we are 102.55 with no intervention)

Happy trading


My expectation is for the slide to continue towards 4400 where the oversold conditions will be prime since there are no legs at 4500 - 4700 level after that 300bps rate hike by CBK. Then a bounce towards 4700 to retest former support and down again towards 3800 - 4000. There are still bullish hopefuls around. Below 4400 I expect these hopefuls to send the index in a steep dive towards 4000 or lower as capitulation hits the peak.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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mnandii
#539 Posted : Tuesday, July 14, 2015 5:28:25 PM
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Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
iris wrote:
mnandii wrote:


I continue to consider that USDKES should not reach 106.80 level.


Shifting of goal posts? post #507


Oh yeah.

There I talked about 108 level but it's because of the source of the chart

quotenet.com

which only shows close prices rather than OHLC; and the chart itself has no cross hairs to enable measurement of a precise level.

I've shifted to using

investment.com
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mnandii
#540 Posted : Tuesday, July 14, 2015 5:40:06 PM
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Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
mkonomtupu wrote:
@mnandii, good stuff.

Looking at the long term chart drawing a straight line under the troughs from Sept 02, March 09 and point X(2011), then 4000(or slightly below that) looks like the point at which the current correction will terminate. I would go with the alternate count that we are falling in wave[iii] targeting the 4,000 mark(although that depends if we breach 4,700 with no bounce back and then on how aggressive CBK is in shielding the kenya shilling from further loss- today we are 102.55 with no intervention)

Happy trading


I agree with you upto the point underlined. smile

In fact the alternate count is now my prefered choice. I'll keep posting as prices confirm.

I however do not agree with the part that is not underlined. Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly

i.e it does not matter what the Central Bank does! The government reacts to the market; it does not determine the direction of the market. What determines market direction is mass psychology.





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