Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/13/2015 Posts: 1,654
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wukan wrote:lochaz-index wrote:sparkly wrote:lochaz-index wrote:Quite a feat the market has managed in the past five months or so. A gain of 890 points on the 2789 low is not to be scoffed at everything considered. Can the bulls breach the 4000 mark? That remains the question for now.
In terms of time however, the bulls are on a short leash on the front. My crude estimate is about 6-9 months at best to mount a full rally to its peak. In short, the faster the market can challenge the 4000 level the better but I doubt whether market will snap out of its bear hold. The default direction is still bearish. Crunch time it is. We left the bear in the woods aloooong time ago. We are waiting for the second impulse. I am extremely skeptical of this particular upswing. This rally has kept on going with nary a retracement from its onset. The expectation is that the bull will explode into a mad rally after the elections. For the movers who got in early enough, the period after the elections is the perfect opportunity to exit. Two possibilities favour that strategy: the post election period attracts sufficient longs to mask their exit but the market remains largely stagnant until they have cleared their trades or it rallies briefly after the elections to further feed into the bull narrative and ropes in frenzied buyers which again offers a nice exit window. Anyway, that would be my game plan if I was one of the main movers. Fundamentally, very little incentive exists for buyers in this market, the election offers the perfect foil. Probably TA suggests otherwise but that is my take. The market is doing a long correction of the 2002-2007 bull. In TA terms a double zigzag(ending around 2500) or triple zigzag correction (ending around 1850). In double zigzag the retrace from 2700 level terminates at slightly below 4000(Wave B of the previous wave). Current impulse should therefore be on the last leg(iv-v). The elections will offer a shock and awe moment for the unprepared. The tightening of the opinion polls is yet to sink in. I'm getting rid of my longs and going short. I could be wrong though 
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