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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
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littledove
#2661 Posted : Thursday, June 15, 2017 4:57:48 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 7/1/2014
Posts: 927
Location: sky
Metasploit wrote:
And NSE will surely touch 3500 as Ken gen and the rest are taking a breather

The Nairobi NSE20 Index +0.45% to close at a Fresh 11 month high of 3522.79.
with little signs of pullback, 53 days to election
There are only two emotions in the stock market, fear and hope. The problem is, you hope when you should fear and fear when you should hope
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bartum
#2662 Posted : Thursday, June 15, 2017 7:26:02 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 8/11/2010
Posts: 1,011
Location: nairobi
What did Aly Khan satchu meant here
"The Nairobi NSE20 Index +0.45% to close at a Fresh 11 month high of 3522.79.
We are seeing better breadth in the market but one suspects the
rebound is now maturing especially ahead of the August elections and
heightened and adversarial politics"
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lochaz-index
#2663 Posted : Thursday, June 15, 2017 9:45:49 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
littledove wrote:
Metasploit wrote:
And NSE will surely touch 3500 as Ken gen and the rest are taking a breather

The Nairobi NSE20 Index +0.45% to close at a Fresh 11 month high of 3522.79.
with little signs of pullback, 53 days to election

It has been staggering for the last two weeks or so. Only added about 100 points in that period...nothing like the initial full steam charge. This is the pause before a definitive move up or down. Still favouring the bears to finish the job.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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VituVingiSana
#2664 Posted : Friday, June 16, 2017 11:47:38 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,347
Location: Nairobi
bartum wrote:
What did Aly Khan satchu meant here
"The Nairobi NSE20 Index +0.45% to close at a Fresh 11 month high of 3522.79.
We are seeing better breadth in the market but one suspects the
rebound is now maturing especially ahead of the August elections and
heightened and adversarial politics"

d'oh! d'oh! d'oh! Tower of Babel ;-)
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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wukan
#2665 Posted : Friday, June 16, 2017 4:16:19 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 1,654
lochaz-index wrote:
littledove wrote:
Metasploit wrote:
And NSE will surely touch 3500 as Ken gen and the rest are taking a breather

The Nairobi NSE20 Index +0.45% to close at a Fresh 11 month high of 3522.79.
with little signs of pullback, 53 days to election

It has been staggering for the last two weeks or so. Only added about 100 points in that period...nothing like the initial full steam charge. This is the pause before a definitive move up or down. Still favouring the bears to finish the job.


It was beginning to look parabolic. Next two weeks are crucial to full charge the bulls. The pull-back from this point takes us down 1,000 points to 2500 levels.

A tightening of the opinion polls will scare the bulls sufficientlysmile smile smile
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lochaz-index
#2666 Posted : Wednesday, July 19, 2017 10:20:48 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
Quite a feat the market has managed in the past five months or so. A gain of 890 points on the 2789 low is not to be scoffed at everything considered. Can the bulls breach the 4000 mark? That remains the question for now.

In terms of time however, the bulls are on a short leash on the front. My crude estimate is about 6-9 months at best to mount a full rally to its peak. In short, the faster the market can challenge the 4000 level the better but I doubt whether market will snap out of its bear hold. The default direction is still bearish. Crunch time it is.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Mukiri
#2667 Posted : Wednesday, July 19, 2017 12:24:42 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2012
Posts: 5,222
lochaz-index wrote:
Quite a feat the market has managed in the past five months or so. A gain of 890 points on the 2789 low is not to be scoffed at everything considered. Can the bulls breach the 4000 mark? That remains the question for now.

In terms of time however, the bulls are on a short leash on the front. My crude estimate is about 6-9 months at best to mount a full rally to its peak. In short, the faster the market can challenge the 4000 level the better but I doubt whether market will snap out of its bear hold. The default direction is still bearish. Crunch time it is.

6 9 months from when to when?

Proverbs 19:21
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sparkly
#2668 Posted : Wednesday, July 19, 2017 5:56:29 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
lochaz-index wrote:
Quite a feat the market has managed in the past five months or so. A gain of 890 points on the 2789 low is not to be scoffed at everything considered. Can the bulls breach the 4000 mark? That remains the question for now.

In terms of time however, the bulls are on a short leash on the front. My crude estimate is about 6-9 months at best to mount a full rally to its peak. In short, the faster the market can challenge the 4000 level the better but I doubt whether market will snap out of its bear hold. The default direction is still bearish. Crunch time it is.


We left the bear in the woods aloooong time ago. We are waiting for the second impulse.
Life is short. Live passionately.
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lochaz-index
#2669 Posted : Monday, July 24, 2017 9:46:16 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
sparkly wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
Quite a feat the market has managed in the past five months or so. A gain of 890 points on the 2789 low is not to be scoffed at everything considered. Can the bulls breach the 4000 mark? That remains the question for now.

In terms of time however, the bulls are on a short leash on the front. My crude estimate is about 6-9 months at best to mount a full rally to its peak. In short, the faster the market can challenge the 4000 level the better but I doubt whether market will snap out of its bear hold. The default direction is still bearish. Crunch time it is.


We left the bear in the woods aloooong time ago. We are waiting for the second impulse.

I am extremely skeptical of this particular upswing.

This rally has kept on going with nary a retracement from its onset. The expectation is that the bull will explode into a mad rally after the elections. For the movers who got in early enough, the period after the elections is the perfect opportunity to exit.

Two possibilities favour that strategy: the post election period attracts sufficient longs to mask their exit but the market remains largely stagnant until they have cleared their trades or it rallies briefly after the elections to further feed into the bull narrative and ropes in frenzied buyers which again offers a nice exit window. Anyway, that would be my game plan if I was one of the main movers.

Fundamentally, very little incentive exists for buyers in this market, the election offers the perfect foil. Probably TA suggests otherwise but that is my take.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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wukan
#2670 Posted : Monday, July 24, 2017 10:32:13 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 1,654
lochaz-index wrote:
sparkly wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
Quite a feat the market has managed in the past five months or so. A gain of 890 points on the 2789 low is not to be scoffed at everything considered. Can the bulls breach the 4000 mark? That remains the question for now.

In terms of time however, the bulls are on a short leash on the front. My crude estimate is about 6-9 months at best to mount a full rally to its peak. In short, the faster the market can challenge the 4000 level the better but I doubt whether market will snap out of its bear hold. The default direction is still bearish. Crunch time it is.


We left the bear in the woods aloooong time ago. We are waiting for the second impulse.

I am extremely skeptical of this particular upswing.

This rally has kept on going with nary a retracement from its onset. The expectation is that the bull will explode into a mad rally after the elections. For the movers who got in early enough, the period after the elections is the perfect opportunity to exit.

Two possibilities favour that strategy: the post election period attracts sufficient longs to mask their exit but the market remains largely stagnant until they have cleared their trades or it rallies briefly after the elections to further feed into the bull narrative and ropes in frenzied buyers which again offers a nice exit window. Anyway, that would be my game plan if I was one of the main movers.

Fundamentally, very little incentive exists for buyers in this market, the election offers the perfect foil. Probably TA suggests otherwise but that is my take.


The market is doing a long correction of the 2002-2007 bull. In TA terms a double zigzag(ending around 2500) or triple zigzag correction (ending around 1850). In double zigzag the retrace from 2700 level terminates at slightly below 4000(Wave B of the previous wave). Current impulse should therefore be on the last leg(iv-v).

The elections will offer a shock and awe moment for the unprepared. The tightening of the opinion polls is yet to sink in.

I'm getting rid of my longs and going short. I could be wrong thoughsmile smile smile
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