Scary developments. The story about African renaissance will become a cropper for most of the prospective countries. https://mobile.reuters.c..._twitter_impression=true

Tough times

Perhaps the goodies brought back by Ramaphosa from China will have an impact on the economy?

Waaah the rand has taken a proper beating....

Devolution is wonderful, I like to see governors running around whipping their people to be more productive and more civil(Civic enlightenment) and it is unprecedented.
I want to see who is that dimwit who will be willing to raise up in arms to machete a neighbour because of national politics any more. That alone brings undocumented social cohesion in our nation than never before.
If a county is blessed with vast land as is the case with lift valley, you only chase your workers(ukuyus) from your farms if you are a harder working donkey and can consume your maindi(maize) inhouse. So is mumias sugar belt, you throw stones, the backs that are holding the floodgates from comesa sugar and Brazil breaks. It's I need u, u need me situation, for a while as you reorganise your house, soon it will be United States of kenya, and the marriage will be rewritten as partners in trade and survival crime.
Sonko wa nai wacha aendeleze ujeuri, soon na hata ajui tatu city and konza city are not nairobi city, turkana and isiolo, Mombasa and Amerucan city are on the draft stage. Afterall taking a breath in our current cities u need have a NASA grade gas mask if at all u care for your health.
Am never more determined to make it while in Kenia like now. Excuse me, thimiti imekwama thitoo na Kokoto aitembei😂😂😂😂

I dare say the worst is yet to come. My target is at least 30 to the USD.

Jeez get serious....

The Pharaohs still need your money for their pharonic projects keep your crypto safe

Enough cash for development means more tenders for him and cash to pocket

Consider this:

1. Agricultural sector contracted the most (close to 30%) QoQ. Since this has been triggered by a populist policy, it is reasonable to expect the same performance or worse, up and until the elections are held next year. That implies increased imports for an already lopsided BoP.

2. Land prices have tanked 32% since late last year. This trend will likely persist till some assurances are made or the seizure is abandoned altogether. You can imagine the havoc it will create in the economy especially for those properties which have been used as collateral in the banks...some owners could simply walk away from the property and the bank is left to dispose it at a pittance vs the borrowed amount.

3. South Africa is generally the first stop for investors/capital flows looking for exposure in the African capital markets. Hot money will be looking for the quickest exit from the rainbow nation as soon as forceful seizure of properties takes off. When inflows turn into outflows enmasse, the fate that awaits the rand will be similar/worse to what happened to the Turkish lira...reserves are quickly depleted in a futile attempt to defend a currency on weak fundies and unable to attract more funds.

4. Being mineral rich, South Africa - like all commodity dependent economies - is heavily reliant on the purchasing power of China. A bad year for the Chinese economy (very likely in 2019 seeing as the yuan is acting up) means a bad year for SA...this is already apparent for platinum prices/forex where it is the largest producer.

No respite for EM/FMs and the weaker AMs for the coming year as the neutral FFR is projected to close at around 3.25%. This represents a 100bps hike from current level. More capital flight(risk off) and a strong USD are a certainty in that environment. If the dollar gains undue momentum from the resultant actions then it won't be pretty.

In general if the hike projection holds, we should be looking at an average 20% shaving for EM/FM stocks in 2019.