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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
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bartum
#2631 Posted : Thursday, May 11, 2017 5:17:32 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 8/11/2010
Posts: 1,011
Location: nairobi
mlennyma wrote:
I expect the bull to rethink of coming back if the elections run smoothly

NSE20 closes today at 3195 up 20points
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lochaz-index
#2632 Posted : Friday, May 12, 2017 8:18:11 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
bartum wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
I expect the bull to rethink of coming back if the elections run smoothly

NSE20 closes today at 3195 up 20points

I don't think there is much legroom to this mini-rally. It is flying into too many headwinds with minimal firepower...it is more of probing than a decent rally. However, if it cracks open 3300 mark that would make it interesting but overall I favor the bear for short and medium term with the election being a non-event.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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lochaz-index
#2633 Posted : Wednesday, May 24, 2017 10:05:19 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
The market has managed to claw back above the 3300 level. Will be watching closely to see what type of breakout(which I suspect is a fakeout) this is but at least now the bulls have a seat at the table as they duke it out with the bears...previously it was all bear territory. Bulls driven by the less than calamitous haircuts on banks' earnings.

This is keeping up with the global trend:US stocks retracing (European, emerging and frontier markets rallying), same as the dollar index and bond yields tanking. Markets however are fickle, all it takes is a single risk event to wipe out those gains. The more worrying scenario however which I think is the case for 2017 is that the markets are coiling before the real moves. How long this coiling occurs is the likely length of the window for this NSE20 bull and many others - likely to last no more than a few months at best.

The real move looks to be dollar up, yields up(this will be very nasty and violent) and probably US stocks up at least on the 1 year horizon. Obviously the first two trends spell doom for all of European, emerging and frontier markets(including KE). This is not a trend KE can untether itself from.

As long the coiling is taking place, NSE20 will rally but when it reverses be prepared for a bloodbath. The 2017 reversals have been an almighty effort to erase the 2016 tanking in the aftermath of Brexit.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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wukan
#2634 Posted : Wednesday, May 24, 2017 10:43:30 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 1,653
lochaz-index wrote:
The market has managed to claw back above the 3300 level. Will be watching closely to see what type of breakout(which I suspect is a fakeout) this is but at least now the bulls have a seat at the table as they duke it out with the bears...previously it was all bear territory. Bulls driven by the less than calamitous haircuts on banks' earnings.

This is keeping up with the global trend:US stocks retracing (European, emerging and frontier markets rallying), same as the dollar index and bond yields tanking. Markets however are fickle, all it takes is a single risk event to wipe out those gains. The more worrying scenario however which I think is the case for 2017 is that the markets are coiling before the real moves. How long this coiling occurs is the likely length of the window for this NSE20 bull and many others - likely to last no more than a few months at best.

The real move looks to be dollar up, yields up(this will be very nasty and violent) and probably US stocks up at least on the 1 year horizon. Obviously the first two trends spell doom for all of European, emerging and frontier markets(including KE). This is not a trend KE can untether itself from.

As long the coiling is taking place, NSE20 will rally but when it reverses be prepared for a bloodbath. The 2017 reversals have been an almighty effort to erase the 2016 tanking in the aftermath of Brexit.


The market is failing to form the double bottom or triple bottom which would give a solid bull. In a double bottom scenario market should have re-tested the 2700 levels to shake out the last optimists. A current rally on this pattern takes us to around 4500 around the year 2020 which coincidentally is also the around the time when most the super-tall skyscrapers top out. Enjoy the ridesmile smile
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hisah
#2635 Posted : Wednesday, May 24, 2017 11:45:21 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
wukan wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
The market has managed to claw back above the 3300 level. Will be watching closely to see what type of breakout(which I suspect is a fakeout) this is but at least now the bulls have a seat at the table as they duke it out with the bears...previously it was all bear territory. Bulls driven by the less than calamitous haircuts on banks' earnings.

This is keeping up with the global trend:US stocks retracing (European, emerging and frontier markets rallying), same as the dollar index and bond yields tanking. Markets however are fickle, all it takes is a single risk event to wipe out those gains. The more worrying scenario however which I think is the case for 2017 is that the markets are coiling before the real moves. How long this coiling occurs is the likely length of the window for this NSE20 bull and many others - likely to last no more than a few months at best.

The real move looks to be dollar up, yields up(this will be very nasty and violent) and probably US stocks up at least on the 1 year horizon. Obviously the first two trends spell doom for all of European, emerging and frontier markets(including KE). This is not a trend KE can untether itself from.

As long the coiling is taking place, NSE20 will rally but when it reverses be prepared for a bloodbath. The 2017 reversals have been an almighty effort to erase the 2016 tanking in the aftermath of Brexit.


The market is failing to form the double bottom or triple bottom which would give a solid bull. In a double bottom scenario market should have re-tested the 2700 levels to shake out the last optimists. A current rally on this pattern takes us to around 4500 around the year 2020 which coincidentally is also the around the time when most the super-tall skyscrapers top out. Enjoy the ridesmile smile

Look at the chart keenly and notice the double bottom... Think
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Metasploit
#2636 Posted : Wednesday, May 24, 2017 11:57:35 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 985
Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
hisah wrote:
wukan wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
The market has managed to claw back above the 3300 level. Will be watching closely to see what type of breakout(which I suspect is a fakeout) this is but at least now the bulls have a seat at the table as they duke it out with the bears...previously it was all bear territory. Bulls driven by the less than calamitous haircuts on banks' earnings.

This is keeping up with the global trend:US stocks retracing (European, emerging and frontier markets rallying), same as the dollar index and bond yields tanking. Markets however are fickle, all it takes is a single risk event to wipe out those gains. The more worrying scenario however which I think is the case for 2017 is that the markets are coiling before the real moves. How long this coiling occurs is the likely length of the window for this NSE20 bull and many others - likely to last no more than a few months at best.

The real move looks to be dollar up, yields up(this will be very nasty and violent) and probably US stocks up at least on the 1 year horizon. Obviously the first two trends spell doom for all of European, emerging and frontier markets(including KE). This is not a trend KE can untether itself from.

As long the coiling is taking place, NSE20 will rally but when it reverses be prepared for a bloodbath. The 2017 reversals have been an almighty effort to erase the 2016 tanking in the aftermath of Brexit.


The market is failing to form the double bottom or triple bottom which would give a solid bull. In a double bottom scenario market should have re-tested the 2700 levels to shake out the last optimists. A current rally on this pattern takes us to around 4500 around the year 2020 which coincidentally is also the around the time when most the super-tall skyscrapers top out. Enjoy the ridesmile smile


Look at the chart keenly and notice the double bottom... Think


Check the 10 year chart..The bottom does not have to be exact but close

“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
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sparkly
#2637 Posted : Wednesday, May 24, 2017 12:20:31 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
hisah wrote:
wukan wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
The market has managed to claw back above the 3300 level. Will be watching closely to see what type of breakout(which I suspect is a fakeout) this is but at least now the bulls have a seat at the table as they duke it out with the bears...previously it was all bear territory. Bulls driven by the less than calamitous haircuts on banks' earnings.

This is keeping up with the global trend:US stocks retracing (European, emerging and frontier markets rallying), same as the dollar index and bond yields tanking. Markets however are fickle, all it takes is a single risk event to wipe out those gains. The more worrying scenario however which I think is the case for 2017 is that the markets are coiling before the real moves. How long this coiling occurs is the likely length of the window for this NSE20 bull and many others - likely to last no more than a few months at best.

The real move looks to be dollar up, yields up(this will be very nasty and violent) and probably US stocks up at least on the 1 year horizon. Obviously the first two trends spell doom for all of European, emerging and frontier markets(including KE). This is not a trend KE can untether itself from.

As long the coiling is taking place, NSE20 will rally but when it reverses be prepared for a bloodbath. The 2017 reversals have been an almighty effort to erase the 2016 tanking in the aftermath of Brexit.


The market is failing to form the double bottom or triple bottom which would give a solid bull. In a double bottom scenario market should have re-tested the 2700 levels to shake out the last optimists. A current rally on this pattern takes us to around 4500 around the year 2020 which coincidentally is also the around the time when most the super-tall skyscrapers top out. Enjoy the ridesmile smile

Look at the chart keenly and notice the double bottom... Think


True, double bottom of sorts if one looks at 2011/2 and 2016/7.
Life is short. Live passionately.
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hisah
#2638 Posted : Wednesday, May 24, 2017 12:44:00 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
@sparkly @metaspoilt, true to both as well as if you add the RSI lows it gets even more interesting. I'm looking at those 3 lows combined. If indeed this is the low, then the next rally should be able to take out the 6161 high on NSE20.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Metasploit
#2639 Posted : Wednesday, May 24, 2017 12:51:47 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 985
Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
hisah wrote:
@sparkly @metaspoilt, true to both as well as if you add the RSI lows it gets even more interesting. I'm looking at those 3 lows combined. If indeed this is the low, then the next rally should be able to take out the 6161 high on NSE20.


I noted this but didnt post the chart on my post under "madness at NSE"

I have revoked my sell orders for now

“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
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lochaz-index
#2640 Posted : Wednesday, May 24, 2017 2:16:43 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
wukan wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
The market has managed to claw back above the 3300 level. Will be watching closely to see what type of breakout(which I suspect is a fakeout) this is but at least now the bulls have a seat at the table as they duke it out with the bears...previously it was all bear territory. Bulls driven by the less than calamitous haircuts on banks' earnings.

This is keeping up with the global trend:US stocks retracing (European, emerging and frontier markets rallying), same as the dollar index and bond yields tanking. Markets however are fickle, all it takes is a single risk event to wipe out those gains. The more worrying scenario however which I think is the case for 2017 is that the markets are coiling before the real moves. How long this coiling occurs is the likely length of the window for this NSE20 bull and many others - likely to last no more than a few months at best.

The real move looks to be dollar up, yields up(this will be very nasty and violent) and probably US stocks up at least on the 1 year horizon. Obviously the first two trends spell doom for all of European, emerging and frontier markets(including KE). This is not a trend KE can untether itself from.

As long the coiling is taking place, NSE20 will rally but when it reverses be prepared for a bloodbath. The 2017 reversals have been an almighty effort to erase the 2016 tanking in the aftermath of Brexit.


The market is failing to form the double bottom or triple bottom which would give a solid bull. In a double bottom scenario market should have re-tested the 2700 levels to shake out the last optimists. A current rally on this pattern takes us to around 4500 around the year 2020 which coincidentally is also the around the time when most the super-tall skyscrapers top out. Enjoy the ridesmile smile

4500 level in the year 2020? I don't know much with regards to TA so I can't comment on the double/triple bottom theory but my reading is that bears still have more than a fighting chance at current levels. To exhaust any downside pressure would need a reading above 4000 to pull clear of the 2016 limbo. Let's see how much of a push is packed in the bull strength or if the bears are saving their energy for one last bloodletting episode.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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