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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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@fxtech and @merchant - RBA keeps key interest the same contrary to market expectations and the aussie is duly sold in asian trade with AUDCAD heavily sold - buy stops getting tripped. This is why I like bullish/bearish extremes since reversals are so strong as last minute trend riders get burnt out. I'll add more shorts at 9860 on the bounce assuming London can bring us back there. If not, no need to chance the trade since below .9825 hints a collapse to .9680. If it does this, then these becomes a monthly trade and trend I'm long GBPAUD (2 positions) @ market 1.6414, stop 1.6380 & limit 1.6520 & 2nd target 1.6580 - this is a weekly trade after the 1.6240 triple bottom. I expect this reversal to be furious if we break 1.6550 with highest target at 1.67s. Trade ideas for today - short AUDUSD @.9630-50 - stop .9700-20 - sell limit .9550, 2nd .9475. I'd take 3 positions on this for a quick buck, then take profit on two position on 1st target and leave the other running for the 2nd limit. Also looking at the EURGBP hourly, I think this pair is ready for another dive towards .8570 which hints more GBP strength. I'm maxed on my positions (for the day since I'm still looking for USDCHF and one more AUDCAD. What are your trades for today or the week? $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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@fxtech - EURGBP is ripe for a short now on the 4hr fibo retracement at the 61.8% level - .8690 of yesterday's sell off. I've taken a small short .8685 looking for this pair to fall back to .8560 since both EURGBP and GBPUSD are rallying. One of them is lying And based on the slight $ weakness, I think the euro is lying. EURUSD - Yet again testing above 1.3740? If it fails to head higher in London, NY session will sell it down again and we already have USDCHF below .9700 as I expected. Now waiting for a retrace of the selling with a higher close by end of week to confirm short term $ rally. Keep in mind that on Friday is high risk day due to NFP (US jobless rate announcement). $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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@fxtech - forgot to mention GBPAUD is breaking 1.6550 level. This opens up a test of 1.67 most likely by end of tomorrow. If you didn't take this trade, wait for 1.6500 retrace by NY time (4pm Kenya time), then go long. AUDCAD - has collapsed to support near .9760. A retrace is now likely as quick shorts take profits. You can safely short around .9850-.9900 $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Member Joined: 5/31/2010 Posts: 325 Location: NAIROBI
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@hisah, Yah EURGBP completely opposite bt I belive fromthe techical point of view we wil be bullish soon, 4 the day, EURCHF LONG T.P @1.3360, GBPUSD LONG T.P 1.5910, AUDCAD, ws bearish 4 the better part of the morning,im long T.P @0.9870, ELLIOT WAVE is in support of this view. Discipline & sticking to your strategy even when you loosing defines great traders.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Interesting price action today. GDPAUD rockets after breaking 1.64 downtrend barrier to test critical zone at 1.6550 and is reversed all the way back to the daily open. Thanks for stops and limits. Got hit on both! The last time I saw this price action was during the Bear Sterns, Freddie Mac & Fannie Mae bankruptcy saga in mid 2008 before Lehman went bust and killed the markets. Then the intraday price action was so wild. The euro too was knee-jerk just like it has been since last week. 2008 is back. AUDCAD retrace is impressive after the collapse, but the daily dragonfly candle is very bearish. The best aussie reversal has been the AUDNZD. I'm regretting putting the tight stops which were hit during the overnight trade. This one is truly bearish reversed for some weeks. If EURGBP doesn't close above .8720 today I expect it to reverse. I didn't expect the euro to reverse strongly today. Very wild swings! I'm sidelined for now, but I'll keep a watch on the EURUSD reaction at 1.39s. At the same time I'll still look for GBPAUD longs due to the triple bottom. USDCHF is still falling, can't touch for now. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Member Joined: 5/31/2010 Posts: 325 Location: NAIROBI
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@hisah, hope u garnered some pips esp on EURGBP, AUDUSD recoveries, today im bull on GBPUSD, EURUSD,NZDUSD bear on USDCHF,USDCAD, What's in 4 you 2dy. Discipline & sticking to your strategy even when you loosing defines great traders.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Sidelined for now. I'll look @ the london session then decide on NY session. I think GBPUSD could test 1.60. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Member Joined: 5/31/2010 Posts: 325 Location: NAIROBI
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@hisah also think so about the cable, AUDUSD looks like it will hit .9840 Discipline & sticking to your strategy even when you loosing defines great traders.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Hmmm... markets gone berserk. Are you seeing the today's choppy behaviour. Euro equities too, up and down. No direction. This is un-tradable. Something from Goldman Sachs (GS) FX desk - http://www.scribd.com/do...8821898/Goldman-FX-10-6
GS is forecasting EURUSD high of 1.55 for a 12mth outlook. Buy euro debt crisis, sell US deficit economy Trading the ugly is getting really ugly. This is madness. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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@fxtech - Same thing in NY session -> nasdaq down, s&p future up (barely), s&p cash down (barely), dow up (barely)...?? Total confusion. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Member Joined: 5/31/2010 Posts: 325 Location: NAIROBI
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@hisah, nuts, thts the word 4 the markets now, taking a sideline position till later, bt gud if you scalping. Discipline & sticking to your strategy even when you loosing defines great traders.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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http://news.ph.msn.com/b...x?cp-documentid=4380915
But the euro keeps rallying. Just perfect? $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Long term S&P500 20yr chart trending. I hope this helps you to plan your FX trading accordingly. http://stockcharts.com/c...amp;a=191682047&r=95$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_MmyNT...2-paperecon_full_380.png@fxtech - Note the narrowing bollinger bands - breakout soon. VIX is the opposite of global stocks. One of them is going to win. My bet is stocks plunge from next week. Interesting correlations today. Dow Jones touches 11000 and is immediately rejected below opening price forming an inverted hammer on the daily. S&P500 too is forming an inverted hammer on the daily. EURUSD is rejected @1.40s and is also forming an inverted hammer and the rejection of EURGBP at 0.88 confirms short term topping. We are nearing trend reversals and the bulls have until tomorrow to negate this effect. If indeed stocks reverse tomorrow and into next week, the $ should rebound. I'll be looking to short AUDUSD and EURUSD though small size on AUDUSD since monthly objective points to 1.0070s. On stocks, already short Nasdaq and FTSE waiting for S&P to rebound to 1160 tomorrow, HangSeng if it hits 23100 and AUS200 at 4700 overnight in Asia session as pending orders. AUDCAD and AUDNZD have simply refused to be sold and have retraced all their Tuesday losses! AUDCAD has tested parity again and squeezed all the Tuesday shorts. Topping signs. I've raised all the AUDCAD long stops to 0.9880 since a reversal on a double top is very swift with the monthly objective at 1.0060 which is equal to the upper bollinger band. The monthly elliot wave count from the April 2008 lows is now complete and a retrace for an ABC setup is very likely. On fibo measurement the retrace should fall to 0.9430s - 500+ pips. Depending on the account size you trade this could be $50 - $50,000 profit. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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EURUSD is topped out against 1.40 as per the positioning of this fund -> http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=fxe - From the chart the sell volume is very evident. The $ is also trying to form a short term bottom. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$usd
Gold too is topped out - but I can't short gold due to a currency crisis that could blow up at anytime with the endless global central banks' interventions. Now pending global stocks bearish reversal to boost the long $ trades. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=fxa - Until I see evidence of increased Aussie selling, shorting the aussie is not advisable. Trades for next week will be euro shorts. The is where the easy money will be made. The inverse - USDCHF is also looking playable for longs. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Significant esp long term, but will as usual be ignored (short term) by the market before reality hits home - http://finance.yahoo.com...o-apf-874601126.html?x=0$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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@fxtech - This week I'm looking at EURCHF, EURAUD and EURCAD. I plan to short these pairs. Also looking at USDCHF for longs. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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EURUSD under pressure in London session as the USDCHF looks poised to turn bullish. EURUSD has closed at high lows for 24 daily sessions. If it closes below 1.3865 that should break the high lows pattern and increase selling pressure. I'll be watching this level at the daily close to confirm shorting any of the euro crosses this week. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/11/2007 Posts: 1,680 Location: nairobi
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forex....uuuiiwwwiiiii
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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http://www.elliottwave.com/imag...eeupdates/dollardoom.gifInteresting US dollar index chart pattern and bearish extremes courtesy of EWI. Speculators boosted bets against the US dollar to $30 billion - the largest shorting of the green-buck since June 2008, according to the Oct 6 2010 Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) COT report. In June 2008 the bearish extreme was 6% while in Nov 2009 it was 7%. This October it is 3% - lowest ever bearish reading, but the index rate is higher than in both 2008 and 2009 extremes. Bearish and bullish extremes are major warnings of a sharp retrace or rebound. The euro and the aussie are the most bullish extreme against the US dollar. When the dollar rebounds, these two currencies will retrace sharply. @fxtech - EURUSD is still printing higher lows for the 27 session running and now above the 1.4000 level objective and delaying my euro cross short trades. There is still some room for 1.4100 level to be broken as well as the AUSUSD to break above 1.000 (parity). For the monthly (November) trade setup - the AUDCAD is the best for shorting - assuming it closes the month with the current hanging man formation at the current yearly highs. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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