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mv_ufanisi
#251 Posted : Friday, March 19, 2010 11:08:45 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/15/2010
Posts: 625
IMHO - I think this one world currency is just building castles in the air. How do countries set fiscal policy if they only have one currency? Would it work in Africa? How would it have worked in Zimbabwe? Nationalism will ensure that this will never happen.
karanjakinuthia
#252 Posted : Saturday, March 20, 2010 4:41:21 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
@ MV Ufanisi. The One World Currency would be a reserve unit to replace the U.S. Dollar as the world's reserve currency. It would also serve as a unit of exchange for international settlements.

Each nation will be responsible for its own monetary and fiscal policy. Each nation will issue its own fiat currency.

It would free the world from importing U.S. domestic fiscal and monetary policy through the Dollar.

A choice may be made by a nation state not to hold it as a reserve currency.

Scubidu
#253 Posted : Sunday, March 21, 2010 8:05:28 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
KK. Could you decipher the latest thoughts from Martin Armstrong for me. Read what he predicts below:

http://www.zerohedge.com...-phase-ii-debt-crisis-0

Would appreciate you thoughts. Thanks.
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
karanjakinuthia
#254 Posted : Monday, March 22, 2010 6:36:50 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
@ Scubidu. Inorder to understand his predictions and solutions, you will have to read all his articles inorder of release. Otherwise, you'll end up with a shallow understanding of the argument presented.

karanjakinuthia
#255 Posted : Monday, March 22, 2010 7:48:40 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
In the 1931 Currency Crisis, all European countries with the exception of Britain and Switzerland defaulted on their sovereign debt. Greece is at the eye of a roving storm that threatens the socio-economic fabric of Italy, Portugal, Spain, Ireland and the U.S. states. The Greek crisis has shifted from round after round of negotiations to finger pointing.

The market awaits with bated breath. Default or no default?

"The inability of the eurozone to put together a viable package after a month of talks has dismayed markets, which thought the terms of a deal had already been agreed. Yields on 10-year Greek bonds spiked 17 basis points yesterday to 6.26pc. The euro fell two cents against the dollar to below $1.36. "The facade of unity among eurozone members hardly held for more than a day," said Beat Siegenthaler from UBS.

Greek Premier George Papandreou told the European Parliament that his country was running out of patience. It is in effect already subject to the full rigours of an IMF-style austerity plan but without enjoying any of the benefits. He said the savings from cost-cutting measures were vanishing into the pockets of bond-holders through higher interest rates...."

Read more:

http://www.telegraph.co....escue-plan-crumbles.html
karanjakinuthia
#256 Posted : Wednesday, March 24, 2010 6:13:36 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
Dear Friends,

I hope this day finds you and those near and dear in good health and high spirits.

Real Estate is perhaps the most important and most widely held asset class of all. Other asset classes are stocks, commodities, technology and debt. Real Estate exhibits the characteristics of all asset classes, appreciating and depreciating due to fundamentals and more importantly, confidence.

The Kenyan real estate market has witnessed robust performance in the past few years. In recent quarters, returns have been exponential. Its main competitor - stocks – depreciated significantly in the wake of the 2008 post-election violence and global financial crisis. The Housing Finance Company of Kenya (HFCK) has introduced a re-financing package dubbed "Vuna Hela" (Swahili for “Cash Harvest”) which echoes the re-financing schemes in the Western world during the real estate bubble days. In a nut-shell, re-financing enables a property owner or mortgage servicer to borrow the capital appreciation or equity of a property. The funds may be utilised for all and sundry endeavors including taking a holiday.

And Morpheus said to Neo in the movie, Matrix: "I'm trying to free your mind, Neo. But I can only show you the door. You're the one that has to walk through it".

Before purchasing property at elevated prices with the much bandied mantra that "real estate always appreciates" ringing in your head. Before purchasing property to flip it in a year. Before borrowing on home equity to spend on furnishings and holidays, kindly read the following article:

"The collapse of the US housing market bubble emphasizes how important it is to figure out what property is really worth, from a fundamental perspective. Make sure you’re not over-paying!

Here are some yardsticks to avoid buying in bubble markets:

* Price to Rent Ratio (or Yield)
* Relative Prices
* Affordability
* Price to Replacement Cost"

Read more:

http://www.globalpropert...id-buying-into-a-bubble


Always exercise caution whenever a market is described as “juicy”:

http://www.businessdaily.../-/cg4ogiz/-/index.html


All markets rise and fall. Whenever a rally is in place, there are 100 reasons to buy. Whenever a crash occurs, there are 100 reasons to sell. The intelligent investor shuns frothy markets in preference of out of favour markets.

Thank you for listening.

Kind regards,

Kinuthia Karanja

karanjakinuthia@hotmail.com

tonicasert
#257 Posted : Wednesday, March 24, 2010 8:43:41 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 3/10/2008
Posts: 301
Location: Abu Dhabi
Hi KK,

So you think property market may be topping off? In your view, what timeline can you place for correction.
TIA
karanjakinuthia
#258 Posted : Wednesday, March 24, 2010 4:49:18 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
@ Tonicasert. I haven't made quantitative studies into the real estate cycle in Kenya. Nevertheless, it exhibits all the hallmarks of a frothy market.

My wish is that you excercise caution in this market.

All markets have their inherent cycle patterns. An example of a real estate market that has been quantitatively mapped out is that of the U.S. Each up-cycle lasts 5.5 years while its down-cycle 3.14 years.

Read more of Martin Armstrong's analysis:

http://economicedge.blog...-forecast-for-real.html

guru267
#259 Posted : Thursday, March 25, 2010 7:11:07 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
i think keya's real estate market is being fueled greatly by diaspora money and its sending house prices through the roof...

but that said it remains very hard to see how this price rise is a real estate bubble... remember kenya is an emerging market(housing bubbles are associated with developed markets) with a rapidly growing middle class and housing demand that greatly out strips supply... this means that this price appreciation much as it is exponential can at worst top out but there is nothing to support a housing price depreciation even in the next 10-15 years...
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
karanjakinuthia
#260 Posted : Thursday, March 25, 2010 3:04:29 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
@guru267. I aggree with your ascertion that property prices are being fueled by Kenyans in the Diaspora and foreigners. It is that which characterises a bull market.

Booms and busts are brought about by the inherent human nature to speculate. In a free economy, capital will seek to profit in either of the five asset classes: stocks, debt, technology, commodities and real-estate. A concentration of capital in any one sector leads to a boom cycle whilst a dissipation of capital results in a bust. Rarely do two asset classes boom at the same time as was the case in Japan's real-estate and stock market booms of the late '80s.

"That the free enterprise economy is given to recurrent episodes of speculation will be agreed. These — great events and small, involving bank notes, securities, real estate, art and other assets or objects — are, over the years and centuries, part of history. What has not been sufficiently analyzed are the features common to these episodes, the things that signal their certain return, and have thus the considerable practical value of aiding understanding and prediction.

Regulation and more orthodox economic knowledge are not what protect the individual and the financial institution when euphoria returns, leading on as it does to wonder at the increase in values and wealth, to the rush to participate that drives up prices, and to the eventual crash and its sullen and painful aftermath. There is protection only in a clear perception of the characteristics common to these flights into what must conservatively be described as mass insanity. Only then is the investor warned and saved."

A Short History of Financial Euphoria (1990) by J.K. Galbraith

All the reasons you've given for a 10 - 15 year appreciation are correct. But even then, the market at some point may choose to cool over a 3 - 5 year period as in the case of South Africa. The Rainbow nation had the best performing real-estate market in the world from 1995 to 2007. It is a developing market whose prices have corrected since then.

On the Hyman Minsky's seven stages of a bubble, our real estate is transitioning from Stage 3 to Stage 4.

Read more:

http://www.notesbit.com/...9s-seven-bubble-stages/

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