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Low End Housing: High Risk, High Return
tinker
#251 Posted : Tuesday, May 01, 2018 5:57:18 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 11/15/2010
Posts: 455
Location: Nairobi
[quote=obiero]Habari ndio hii https://www.the-star.co....to-sh3-million_c1747121[/quote]


Why Can't the Gaarment focus on Big Three; Health, Food Security and Job creation.
The Govt should focus on Infrastructural development, for example, good roads, Reliable power, Water supply, working sewerage system, security etc Instead of HOUSING,which can be done by individual investors.
....He who began a good work in you will carry it on to completion..
obiero
#252 Posted : Tuesday, May 01, 2018 6:46:32 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 14,217
Location: nairobi
tinker wrote:


Why Can't the Gaarment focus on Big Three; Health, Food Security and Job creation.
The Govt should focus on Infrastructural development, for example, good roads, Reliable power, Water supply, working sewerage system, security etc Instead of HOUSING,which can be done by individual investors.

That's true but the housing deficit is way too wide to be bridged by the private sector

KQ ABP 4.26
Wakanyugi
#253 Posted : Wednesday, May 02, 2018 1:05:32 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 7/3/2007
Posts: 1,635


There is a question that no one is yet talking about. What is the likely effect of injecting so many extra housing units into a struggling real estate sector?

Don't get me wrong, I am not against the idea. But we are seeing a lot of companies struggling to offload houses especially on the upper middle and upper class segments. And now Uhuru is about to take the middle and lower middle class off the table too.

Could this finally burst the speculation buble that so many have spoken about?
"The opposite of a correct statement is a false statement. But the opposite of a profound truth may well be another profound truth." (Niels Bohr)
obiero
#254 Posted : Wednesday, May 02, 2018 1:38:55 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 14,217
Location: nairobi
Wakanyugi wrote:


There is a question that no one is yet talking about. What is the likely effect of injecting so many extra housing units into a struggling real estate sector?

Don't get me wrong, I am not against the idea. But we are seeing a lot of companies struggling to offload houses especially on the upper middle and upper class segments. And now Uhuru is about to take the middle and lower middle class off the table too.

Could this finally burst the speculation buble that so many have spoken about?

@Wakanyugi the demand at the low end is insatiable at the moment.. Even the government will struggle to bridge the deficit

KQ ABP 4.26
wukan
#255 Posted : Wednesday, May 02, 2018 2:37:01 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 1,654
obiero wrote:
Wakanyugi wrote:


There is a question that no one is yet talking about. What is the likely effect of injecting so many extra housing units into a struggling real estate sector?

Don't get me wrong, I am not against the idea. But we are seeing a lot of companies struggling to offload houses especially on the upper middle and upper class segments. And now Uhuru is about to take the middle and lower middle class off the table too.

Could this finally burst the speculation buble that so many have spoken about?

@Wakanyugi the demand at the low end is insatiable at the moment.. Even the government will struggle to bridge the deficit


@Obiero, I don't get it if the demand is there why did you stop your construction(congrats by the way good stuff)? Can the lower end afford your estimated rent for you to recoup your costs?

Lower end is in need of social housing. From the documentation GoK is building the social housing in Kibera, Kiambiu etc while private sector will cater for the emerging middle class through PPP. Some of the projects look like the ongoing civil servant housing scheme lumped in for PR purposes.

GoK has already done these initiatives before with little impact on the market e.g Umoja, Jericho, Dandora. The impact on real estate will only be short term for the benefit of middle class.

Most of government social housing projects even in the US, UK end up being crime-infested, dilapidated structures or high-rise slums. They are segregated in terms of income concentrating poverty in an area. Politicians with an eye on next elections don't give much thought to these projects and the effects are felt a generation away(like the projects in US). A mixed income approach would have been more ideal something close to what Tatu city is trying to achieve.
Mkimwa
#256 Posted : Wednesday, May 02, 2018 3:29:23 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 10/26/2008
Posts: 380
obiero wrote:

Asante. Happy too with the outcome.. Took three years but the journey was worth every step.. Completed only one block out of the plan for three, but I doubt whether I have appetite for the extra four storied blocks.. I'm heading back to the securities exchange


Congratulations!!

Do share some photos of the finished product if you will..

Once the money starts rolling in, dont be surprised to do the other blocks...

How did the total spend compare with your initial estimates?
Wakanyugi
#257 Posted : Wednesday, May 02, 2018 4:15:47 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 7/3/2007
Posts: 1,635
wukan wrote:
obiero wrote:
Wakanyugi wrote:


There is a question that no one is yet talking about. What is the likely effect of injecting so many extra housing units into a struggling real estate sector?

Don't get me wrong, I am not against the idea. But we are seeing a lot of companies struggling to offload houses especially on the upper middle and upper class segments. And now Uhuru is about to take the middle and lower middle class off the table too.

Could this finally burst the speculation buble that so many have spoken about?

@Wakanyugi the demand at the low end is insatiable at the moment.. Even the government will struggle to bridge the deficit


@Obiero, I don't get it if the demand is there why did you stop your construction(congrats by the way good stuff)? Can the lower end afford your estimated rent for you to recoup your costs?

Lower end is in need of social housing. From the documentation GoK is building the social housing in Kibera, Kiambiu etc while private sector will cater for the emerging middle class through PPP. Some of the projects look like the ongoing civil servant housing scheme lumped in for PR purposes.

GoK has already done these initiatives before with little impact on the market e.g Umoja, Jericho, Dandora. The impact on real estate will only be short term for the benefit of middle class.

Most of government social housing projects even in the US, UK end up being crime-infested, dilapidated structures or high-rise slums. They are segregated in terms of income concentrating poverty in an area. Politicians with an eye on next elections don't give much thought to these projects and the effects are felt a generation away(like the projects in US). A mixed income approach would have been more ideal something close to what Tatu city is trying to achieve.


Good points. But the effect of the projects you cite was not negligible. Initially touted as housing for the poor - they ended up benefiting the middle class. The real estate sector went through a depressed period in the late 90's (as did the wider economy of course). I suspect the coming on stream of massive housing stock in the 80's/90's; Dadora, Umoja, Nyayo Highrise (to an extent Buru) contributed to this state of affairs. I have no evidence though.

Finally considering that 600,000 is still too high for the majority of our people to afford, should we relay tout this as a solution to the housing problem?
"The opposite of a correct statement is a false statement. But the opposite of a profound truth may well be another profound truth." (Niels Bohr)
obiero
#258 Posted : Wednesday, May 02, 2018 4:35:21 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 14,217
Location: nairobi
wukan wrote:
obiero wrote:
Wakanyugi wrote:


There is a question that no one is yet talking about. What is the likely effect of injecting so many extra housing units into a struggling real estate sector?

Don't get me wrong, I am not against the idea. But we are seeing a lot of companies struggling to offload houses especially on the upper middle and upper class segments. And now Uhuru is about to take the middle and lower middle class off the table too.

Could this finally burst the speculation buble that so many have spoken about?

@Wakanyugi the demand at the low end is insatiable at the moment.. Even the government will struggle to bridge the deficit


@Obiero, I don't get it if the demand is there why did you stop your construction(congrats by the way good stuff)? Can the lower end afford your estimated rent for you to recoup your costs?

Lower end is in need of social housing. From the documentation GoK is building the social housing in Kibera, Kiambiu etc while private sector will cater for the emerging middle class through PPP. Some of the projects look like the ongoing civil servant housing scheme lumped in for PR purposes.

GoK has already done these initiatives before with little impact on the market e.g Umoja, Jericho, Dandora. The impact on real estate will only be short term for the benefit of middle class.

Most of government social housing projects even in the US, UK end up being crime-infested, dilapidated structures or high-rise slums. They are segregated in terms of income concentrating poverty in an area. Politicians with an eye on next elections don't give much thought to these projects and the effects are felt a generation away(like the projects in US). A mixed income approach would have been more ideal something close to what Tatu city is trying to achieve.

Demand is there and I have already let out the first units.. Choosing to not effect the remaining two blocks was as a result of owners equity in the project. I do not want it to be tied on debt at all, noting that the KES 6,150,000 spent so far, was all cash

KQ ABP 4.26
Swenani
#259 Posted : Wednesday, May 02, 2018 4:36:20 PM
Rank: User

Joined: 8/15/2013
Posts: 13,237
Location: Vacuum
Wakanyugi wrote:
wukan wrote:
obiero wrote:
Wakanyugi wrote:


There is a question that no one is yet talking about. What is the likely effect of injecting so many extra housing units into a struggling real estate sector?

Don't get me wrong, I am not against the idea. But we are seeing a lot of companies struggling to offload houses especially on the upper middle and upper class segments. And now Uhuru is about to take the middle and lower middle class off the table too.

Could this finally burst the speculation buble that so many have spoken about?

@Wakanyugi the demand at the low end is insatiable at the moment.. Even the government will struggle to bridge the deficit


@Obiero, I don't get it if the demand is there why did you stop your construction(congrats by the way good stuff)? Can the lower end afford your estimated rent for you to recoup your costs?

Lower end is in need of social housing. From the documentation GoK is building the social housing in Kibera, Kiambiu etc while private sector will cater for the emerging middle class through PPP. Some of the projects look like the ongoing civil servant housing scheme lumped in for PR purposes.

GoK has already done these initiatives before with little impact on the market e.g Umoja, Jericho, Dandora. The impact on real estate will only be short term for the benefit of middle class.

Most of government social housing projects even in the US, UK end up being crime-infested, dilapidated structures or high-rise slums. They are segregated in terms of income concentrating poverty in an area. Politicians with an eye on next elections don't give much thought to these projects and the effects are felt a generation away(like the projects in US). A mixed income approach would have been more ideal something close to what Tatu city is trying to achieve.


Good points. But the effect of the projects you cite was not negligible. Initially touted as housing for the poor - they ended up benefiting the middle class. The real estate sector went through a depressed period in the late 90's (as did the wider economy of course). I suspect the coming on stream of massive housing stock in the 80's/90's; Dadora, Umoja, Nyayo Highrise (to an extent Buru) contributed to this state of affairs. I have no evidence though.

Finally considering that 600,000 is still too high for the majority of our people to afford, should we relay tout this as a solution to the housing problem?


Yes, A 600K purchased under the TPA for 25 years with an interest rate of 5% is aprox 4K every month while a 3M under TPA for 25 years is less than 18K every month
If Obiero did it, Who Am I?
obiero
#260 Posted : Wednesday, May 02, 2018 4:43:34 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 14,217
Location: nairobi
Wakanyugi wrote:
wukan wrote:
obiero wrote:
Wakanyugi wrote:


There is a question that no one is yet talking about. What is the likely effect of injecting so many extra housing units into a struggling real estate sector?

Don't get me wrong, I am not against the idea. But we are seeing a lot of companies struggling to offload houses especially on the upper middle and upper class segments. And now Uhuru is about to take the middle and lower middle class off the table too.

Could this finally burst the speculation buble that so many have spoken about?

@Wakanyugi the demand at the low end is insatiable at the moment.. Even the government will struggle to bridge the deficit


@Obiero, I don't get it if the demand is there why did you stop your construction(congrats by the way good stuff)? Can the lower end afford your estimated rent for you to recoup your costs?

Lower end is in need of social housing. From the documentation GoK is building the social housing in Kibera, Kiambiu etc while private sector will cater for the emerging middle class through PPP. Some of the projects look like the ongoing civil servant housing scheme lumped in for PR purposes.

GoK has already done these initiatives before with little impact on the market e.g Umoja, Jericho, Dandora. The impact on real estate will only be short term for the benefit of middle class.

Most of government social housing projects even in the US, UK end up being crime-infested, dilapidated structures or high-rise slums. They are segregated in terms of income concentrating poverty in an area. Politicians with an eye on next elections don't give much thought to these projects and the effects are felt a generation away(like the projects in US). A mixed income approach would have been more ideal something close to what Tatu city is trying to achieve.


Good points. But the effect of the projects you cite was not negligible. Initially touted as housing for the poor - they ended up benefiting the middle class. The real estate sector went through a depressed period in the late 90's (as did the wider economy of course). I suspect the coming on stream of massive housing stock in the 80's/90's; Dadora, Umoja, Nyayo Highrise (to an extent Buru) contributed to this state of affairs. I have no evidence though.

Finally considering that 600,000 is still too high for the majority of our people to afford, should we relay tout this as a solution to the housing problem?

@wakanyugi indeed these projects have an impact even to this day! Eastlands was built around the stated estates.. In my thinking, the proposal by GoK to have a TPA scheme similar to the Nyayo Estate model is proper. Citizens will be able to pay 'rent' to the GoK real estate entity with a view to eventually owning the property, rather than throwing cash away to a landlord

KQ ABP 4.26
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