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KCB buy buy buy
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,191 Location: nairobi
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VituVingiSana wrote:There is something about KCB that worries me. I do not trust their numbers. I think the CBK & Treasury are protecting KCB but the rot will show up some time!
If KCB went through a thorough review of all its loans, I think the NPLs will jump. My gut feeling. conversion to equity of part of that money (loan) means creating more shares? "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,212 Location: Nairobi
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mlennyma wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:There is something about KCB that worries me. I do not trust their numbers. I think the CBK & Treasury are protecting KCB but the rot will show up some time!
If KCB went through a thorough review of all its loans, I think the NPLs will jump. My gut feeling. conversion to equity of part of that money (loan) means creating more shares? Conversion of loans [given to KCB] to equity would have to go through a conversion process so I do not think that is on the cards at the moment. For now, KCB wants Tier 2 loans to shore up its capital. My gut feeling... It is a matter of time before KCB will be forced to take write-downs and provisions for some of its loans. I think KCB wants to get the Tier 2 loans in place, cut back on dividends [scrip issue] and perhaps a Rights Issue BEFORE the NPLs are booked and provisions taken. Time frame 12 months ie FY 2017. The excuse can be the elections were bad for business. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,191 Location: nairobi
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VituVingiSana wrote:mlennyma wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:There is something about KCB that worries me. I do not trust their numbers. I think the CBK & Treasury are protecting KCB but the rot will show up some time!
If KCB went through a thorough review of all its loans, I think the NPLs will jump. My gut feeling. conversion to equity of part of that money (loan) means creating more shares? Conversion of loans [given to KCB] to equity would have to go through a conversion process so I do not think that is on the cards at the moment. For now, KCB wants Tier 2 loans to shore up its capital. My gut feeling... It is a matter of time before KCB will be forced to take write-downs and provisions for some of its loans. I think KCB wants to get the Tier 2 loans in place, cut back on dividends [scrip issue] and perhaps a Rights Issue BEFORE the NPLs are booked and provisions taken. Time frame 12 months ie FY 2017. The excuse can be the elections were bad for business. expect very mean dividend going forward "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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VituVingiSana wrote:mlennyma wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:There is something about KCB that worries me. I do not trust their numbers. I think the CBK & Treasury are protecting KCB but the rot will show up some time!
If KCB went through a thorough review of all its loans, I think the NPLs will jump. My gut feeling. conversion to equity of part of that money (loan) means creating more shares? Conversion of loans [given to KCB] to equity would have to go through a conversion process so I do not think that is on the cards at the moment. For now, KCB wants Tier 2 loans to shore up its capital. My gut feeling... It is a matter of time before KCB will be forced to take write-downs and provisions for some of its loans. I think KCB wants to get the Tier 2 loans in place, cut back on dividends [scrip issue] and perhaps a Rights Issue BEFORE the NPLs are booked and provisions taken. Time frame 12 months ie FY 2017. The excuse can be the elections were bad for business. Exactly! The same goes for most banks save for a prudent few. Banks have had a fine run in terms of their loan book for close to 15 years. A washout is way overdue. This makes it a question of when (not if) to take the hit/heat on their earnings through charge offs. My money is on FY 2017 being the real shocker with or without both the rate caps and the election. For tier III and IV banks, even FY 2016 will be bad. The big boys can stay the execution a while longer but sooner or later the chicken will come home to roost. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,212 Location: Nairobi
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lochaz-index wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:mlennyma wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:There is something about KCB that worries me. I do not trust their numbers. I think the CBK & Treasury are protecting KCB but the rot will show up some time!
If KCB went through a thorough review of all its loans, I think the NPLs will jump. My gut feeling. conversion to equity of part of that money (loan) means creating more shares? Conversion of loans [given to KCB] to equity would have to go through a conversion process so I do not think that is on the cards at the moment. For now, KCB wants Tier 2 loans to shore up its capital. My gut feeling... It is a matter of time before KCB will be forced to take write-downs and provisions for some of its loans. I think KCB wants to get the Tier 2 loans in place, cut back on dividends [scrip issue] and perhaps a Rights Issue BEFORE the NPLs are booked and provisions taken. Time frame 12 months ie FY 2017. The excuse can be the elections were bad for business. Exactly! The same goes for most banks save for a prudent few. Banks have had a fine run in terms of their loan book for close to 15 years. A washout is way overdue. This makes it a question of when (not if) to take the hit/heat on their earnings through charge offs. My money is on FY 2017 being the real shocker with or without both the rate caps and the election. For tier III and IV banks, even FY 2016 will be bad. The big boys can stay the execution a while longer but sooner or later the chicken will come home to roost. FY 2017 provides banks with excuses. Elections. US rate increase. GoK budget deficit. South Sudan. Then do a big-bath provisioning. When many banks do it simultaneously, it makes an "individual" bank look good. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,778 Location: NAIROBI
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The BIG cause for all being discussed above is that our economy is bleeding/suffering. Job losses,weakening spending power,corruption Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,191 Location: nairobi
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Ericsson wrote:The BIG cause for all being discussed above is that our economy is bleeding/suffering.
Job losses,weakening spending power,corruption count 5 more years with duale at the helm "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,763 Location: nairobi
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lochaz-index wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:mlennyma wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:There is something about KCB that worries me. I do not trust their numbers. I think the CBK & Treasury are protecting KCB but the rot will show up some time!
If KCB went through a thorough review of all its loans, I think the NPLs will jump. My gut feeling. conversion to equity of part of that money (loan) means creating more shares? Conversion of loans [given to KCB] to equity would have to go through a conversion process so I do not think that is on the cards at the moment. For now, KCB wants Tier 2 loans to shore up its capital. My gut feeling... It is a matter of time before KCB will be forced to take write-downs and provisions for some of its loans. I think KCB wants to get the Tier 2 loans in place, cut back on dividends [scrip issue] and perhaps a Rights Issue BEFORE the NPLs are booked and provisions taken. Time frame 12 months ie FY 2017. The excuse can be the elections were bad for business. Exactly! The same goes for most banks save for a prudent few. Banks have had a fine run in terms of their loan book for close to 15 years. A washout is way overdue. This makes it a question of when (not if) to take the hit/heat on their earnings through charge offs. My money is on FY 2017 being the real shocker with or without both the rate caps and the election. For tier III and IV banks, even FY 2016 will be bad. The big boys can stay the execution a while longer but sooner or later the chicken will come home to roost. As smaller banks falter, does the money move to Timbuktu or to the local larger banks
COOP 255,000 ABP 15.85; IMH 5,000 ABP 35.55; KQ 604,200 ABP 6.96; MTN 23,800 ABP 5.20
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/7/2012 Posts: 11,920
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obiero wrote:lochaz-index wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:mlennyma wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:There is something about KCB that worries me. I do not trust their numbers. I think the CBK & Treasury are protecting KCB but the rot will show up some time!
If KCB went through a thorough review of all its loans, I think the NPLs will jump. My gut feeling. conversion to equity of part of that money (loan) means creating more shares? Conversion of loans [given to KCB] to equity would have to go through a conversion process so I do not think that is on the cards at the moment. For now, KCB wants Tier 2 loans to shore up its capital. My gut feeling... It is a matter of time before KCB will be forced to take write-downs and provisions for some of its loans. I think KCB wants to get the Tier 2 loans in place, cut back on dividends [scrip issue] and perhaps a Rights Issue BEFORE the NPLs are booked and provisions taken. Time frame 12 months ie FY 2017. The excuse can be the elections were bad for business. Exactly! The same goes for most banks save for a prudent few. Banks have had a fine run in terms of their loan book for close to 15 years. A washout is way overdue. This makes it a question of when (not if) to take the hit/heat on their earnings through charge offs. My money is on FY 2017 being the real shocker with or without both the rate caps and the election. For tier III and IV banks, even FY 2016 will be bad. The big boys can stay the execution a while longer but sooner or later the chicken will come home to roost. As smaller banks falter, does the money move to Timbuktu or to the local larger banks Flight!!!!! In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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obiero wrote:lochaz-index wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:mlennyma wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:There is something about KCB that worries me. I do not trust their numbers. I think the CBK & Treasury are protecting KCB but the rot will show up some time!
If KCB went through a thorough review of all its loans, I think the NPLs will jump. My gut feeling. conversion to equity of part of that money (loan) means creating more shares? Conversion of loans [given to KCB] to equity would have to go through a conversion process so I do not think that is on the cards at the moment. For now, KCB wants Tier 2 loans to shore up its capital. My gut feeling... It is a matter of time before KCB will be forced to take write-downs and provisions for some of its loans. I think KCB wants to get the Tier 2 loans in place, cut back on dividends [scrip issue] and perhaps a Rights Issue BEFORE the NPLs are booked and provisions taken. Time frame 12 months ie FY 2017. The excuse can be the elections were bad for business. Exactly! The same goes for most banks save for a prudent few. Banks have had a fine run in terms of their loan book for close to 15 years. A washout is way overdue. This makes it a question of when (not if) to take the hit/heat on their earnings through charge offs. My money is on FY 2017 being the real shocker with or without both the rate caps and the election. For tier III and IV banks, even FY 2016 will be bad. The big boys can stay the execution a while longer but sooner or later the chicken will come home to roost. As smaller banks falter, does the money move to Timbuktu or to the local larger banks So you reckon that a bigger deposit base for the big boys will continually result in growing EPS figures? The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/10/2014 Posts: 989 Location: Kenya
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obiero wrote:lochaz-index wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:mlennyma wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:There is something about KCB that worries me. I do not trust their numbers. I think the CBK & Treasury are protecting KCB but the rot will show up some time!
If KCB went through a thorough review of all its loans, I think the NPLs will jump. My gut feeling. conversion to equity of part of that money (loan) means creating more shares? Conversion of loans [given to KCB] to equity would have to go through a conversion process so I do not think that is on the cards at the moment. For now, KCB wants Tier 2 loans to shore up its capital. My gut feeling... It is a matter of time before KCB will be forced to take write-downs and provisions for some of its loans. I think KCB wants to get the Tier 2 loans in place, cut back on dividends [scrip issue] and perhaps a Rights Issue BEFORE the NPLs are booked and provisions taken. Time frame 12 months ie FY 2017. The excuse can be the elections were bad for business. Exactly! The same goes for most banks save for a prudent few. Banks have had a fine run in terms of their loan book for close to 15 years. A washout is way overdue. This makes it a question of when (not if) to take the hit/heat on their earnings through charge offs. My money is on FY 2017 being the real shocker with or without both the rate caps and the election. For tier III and IV banks, even FY 2016 will be bad. The big boys can stay the execution a while longer but sooner or later the chicken will come home to roost. As smaller banks falter, does the money move to Timbuktu or to the local larger banks Definitely bigger banks. But they really need to stop these cost cutting nonsense by reducing teller numbers esp those branches in the CBD. Whoever finds the best way to slash those queues or make them move faster will take majority of the migrating customers. Its one of the biggest customer complains
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,763 Location: nairobi
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lochaz-index wrote:obiero wrote:lochaz-index wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:mlennyma wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:There is something about KCB that worries me. I do not trust their numbers. I think the CBK & Treasury are protecting KCB but the rot will show up some time!
If KCB went through a thorough review of all its loans, I think the NPLs will jump. My gut feeling. conversion to equity of part of that money (loan) means creating more shares? Conversion of loans [given to KCB] to equity would have to go through a conversion process so I do not think that is on the cards at the moment. For now, KCB wants Tier 2 loans to shore up its capital. My gut feeling... It is a matter of time before KCB will be forced to take write-downs and provisions for some of its loans. I think KCB wants to get the Tier 2 loans in place, cut back on dividends [scrip issue] and perhaps a Rights Issue BEFORE the NPLs are booked and provisions taken. Time frame 12 months ie FY 2017. The excuse can be the elections were bad for business. Exactly! The same goes for most banks save for a prudent few. Banks have had a fine run in terms of their loan book for close to 15 years. A washout is way overdue. This makes it a question of when (not if) to take the hit/heat on their earnings through charge offs. My money is on FY 2017 being the real shocker with or without both the rate caps and the election. For tier III and IV banks, even FY 2016 will be bad. The big boys can stay the execution a while longer but sooner or later the chicken will come home to roost. As smaller banks falter, does the money move to Timbuktu or to the local larger banks So you reckon that a bigger deposit base for the big boys will continually result in growing EPS figures? Banks are a factor of deposits.. Without deposits there is no bank. Those that get cheaper deposits such as simba will be here for quite a while
COOP 255,000 ABP 15.85; IMH 5,000 ABP 35.55; KQ 604,200 ABP 6.96; MTN 23,800 ABP 5.20
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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obiero wrote:lochaz-index wrote:obiero wrote:lochaz-index wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:mlennyma wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:There is something about KCB that worries me. I do not trust their numbers. I think the CBK & Treasury are protecting KCB but the rot will show up some time!
If KCB went through a thorough review of all its loans, I think the NPLs will jump. My gut feeling. conversion to equity of part of that money (loan) means creating more shares? Conversion of loans [given to KCB] to equity would have to go through a conversion process so I do not think that is on the cards at the moment. For now, KCB wants Tier 2 loans to shore up its capital. My gut feeling... It is a matter of time before KCB will be forced to take write-downs and provisions for some of its loans. I think KCB wants to get the Tier 2 loans in place, cut back on dividends [scrip issue] and perhaps a Rights Issue BEFORE the NPLs are booked and provisions taken. Time frame 12 months ie FY 2017. The excuse can be the elections were bad for business. Exactly! The same goes for most banks save for a prudent few. Banks have had a fine run in terms of their loan book for close to 15 years. A washout is way overdue. This makes it a question of when (not if) to take the hit/heat on their earnings through charge offs. My money is on FY 2017 being the real shocker with or without both the rate caps and the election. For tier III and IV banks, even FY 2016 will be bad. The big boys can stay the execution a while longer but sooner or later the chicken will come home to roost. As smaller banks falter, does the money move to Timbuktu or to the local larger banks So you reckon that a bigger deposit base for the big boys will continually result in growing EPS figures? Banks are a factor of deposits.. Without deposits there is no bank. Those that get cheaper deposits such as simba will be here for quite a while The idea here is not that all KE banks will collapse but that the game changes from thriving to surviving. If smaller banks collapse that undermines the collective confidence in the banking sector. Attracting cheap deposits is but one variable of a complex equation. Besides, the competition for deposits is not a closed fight/system between smaller banks vs the big boys. In fact I think Mpesa would be the landslide winner if confidence in the banking sector is severely tested. Why so? Most KE account holders don't have millions or billions in their accounts, it is very easy for them to withdraw everything and load it in Mpesa. Plus it has the psychological advantage that one always carries his/her money at all times. Hoarding cash (in safes aka personal banking) also becomes an attractive option for those with tidier sums. Big corporates can move their money out of the country and/or take the offshore option if things get out of hand. So yes, even Timbuktu is an alternative. This means even the big banks will bleed badly in the wake of more bank failures. Even the allure of interest on deposits @ 70% of cbr cannot stop the hemorrhage. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,212 Location: Nairobi
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Banking is all about "confidence" no matter the size of the bank. Despite all the "hate" vs the Kaburu banks, the reality is that is where I would run if there was a crisis of confidence among KE banks. Not KCB [even with GoK support], definitely not NBK. I like Equity but coz King James is the king and he inspires confidence among the masses. GoK will support KCB but the inefficiencies at KCB will probably mean I have no access to my money anyway! BBK and Stanchart have institutional memory. They have systems. They can draw on their parents for operational support. Ironically, the money deposited into M-Pesa does end up at a bank. I think CBA and KCB. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,778 Location: NAIROBI
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@VVS If Equity Bank were to go down who will rescue it. This is Africa not western world Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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VituVingiSana wrote:Banking is all about "confidence" no matter the size of the bank. Despite all the "hate" vs the Kaburu banks, the reality is that is where I would run if there was a crisis of confidence among KE banks.
Not KCB [even with GoK support], definitely not NBK. I like Equity but coz King James is the king and he inspires confidence among the masses. GoK will support KCB but the inefficiencies at KCB will probably mean I have no access to my money anyway!
BBK and Stanchart have institutional memory. They have systems. They can draw on their parents for operational support.
Ironically, the money deposited into M-Pesa does end up at a bank. I think CBA and KCB. Yeah, quite likely CBA and KCB hold the bulk of Mpesa deposits. But with a systemic crisis in KE banks, safcom will simply divert the cash flush elsewhere till risk of deposit loss subsides. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,763 Location: nairobi
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lochaz-index wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Banking is all about "confidence" no matter the size of the bank. Despite all the "hate" vs the Kaburu banks, the reality is that is where I would run if there was a crisis of confidence among KE banks.
Not KCB [even with GoK support], definitely not NBK. I like Equity but coz King James is the king and he inspires confidence among the masses. GoK will support KCB but the inefficiencies at KCB will probably mean I have no access to my money anyway!
BBK and Stanchart have institutional memory. They have systems. They can draw on their parents for operational support.
Ironically, the money deposited into M-Pesa does end up at a bank. I think CBA and KCB. Yeah, quite likely CBA and KCB hold the bulk of Mpesa deposits. But with a systemic crisis in KE banks, safcom will simply divert the cash flush elsewhere till risk of deposit loss subsides. You should stick to fuel manenos.. KCB has a deeper history in Kenya than all the others you mention quite ignorantly
COOP 255,000 ABP 15.85; IMH 5,000 ABP 35.55; KQ 604,200 ABP 6.96; MTN 23,800 ABP 5.20
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,212 Location: Nairobi
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Ericsson wrote:@VVS
If Equity Bank were to go down who will rescue it.
This is Africa not western world Equity has become a "systematically important bank" and will be rescued by GoK. The shareholders may be wiped out but the politicians will support a bailout of the depositors. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,212 Location: Nairobi
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obiero wrote:lochaz-index wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Banking is all about "confidence" no matter the size of the bank. Despite all the "hate" vs the Kaburu banks, the reality is that is where I would run if there was a crisis of confidence among KE banks.
Not KCB [even with GoK support], definitely not NBK. I like Equity but coz King James is the king and he inspires confidence among the masses. GoK will support KCB but the inefficiencies at KCB will probably mean I have no access to my money anyway!
BBK and Stanchart have institutional memory. They have systems. They can draw on their parents for operational support.
Ironically, the money deposited into M-Pesa does end up at a bank. I think CBA and KCB. Yeah, quite likely CBA and KCB hold the bulk of Mpesa deposits. But with a systemic crisis in KE banks, safcom will simply divert the cash flush elsewhere till risk of deposit loss subsides. You should stick to fuel manenos.. KCB has a deeper history in Kenya than all the others you mention quite ignorantly Yet of all the banks mentioned, only KCB & NBK came close to collapsing BUT for GoK bailing them out. Lakini, what do some of these chaps know except to insult folks? *Equity wasn't a bank until fairly recently. It's predecessor did get into some trouble but managed to dig itself out without a GoK bailout* Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,763 Location: nairobi
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VituVingiSana wrote:obiero wrote:lochaz-index wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Banking is all about "confidence" no matter the size of the bank. Despite all the "hate" vs the Kaburu banks, the reality is that is where I would run if there was a crisis of confidence among KE banks.
Not KCB [even with GoK support], definitely not NBK. I like Equity but coz King James is the king and he inspires confidence among the masses. GoK will support KCB but the inefficiencies at KCB will probably mean I have no access to my money anyway!
BBK and Stanchart have institutional memory. They have systems. They can draw on their parents for operational support.
Ironically, the money deposited into M-Pesa does end up at a bank. I think CBA and KCB. Yeah, quite likely CBA and KCB hold the bulk of Mpesa deposits. But with a systemic crisis in KE banks, safcom will simply divert the cash flush elsewhere till risk of deposit loss subsides. You should stick to fuel manenos.. KCB has a deeper history in Kenya than all the others you mention quite ignorantly Yet of all the banks mentioned, only KCB & NBK came close to collapsing BUT for GoK bailing them out. Lakini, what do some of these chaps know except to insult folks? *Equity wasn't a bank until fairly recently. It's predecessor did get into some trouble but managed to dig itself out without a GoK bailout* KCB simply made a loss in 2004, this propaganda that it almost collapsed borders on insanity.. Terry Davidson can prove it. Feel free to post contrary evidence
COOP 255,000 ABP 15.85; IMH 5,000 ABP 35.55; KQ 604,200 ABP 6.96; MTN 23,800 ABP 5.20
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