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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#251 Posted : Saturday, July 14, 2012 9:52:43 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,225
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
guru267 wrote:
Hi-Teck wrote:
So, which stocks are undervalued and best to accumulate, whether short or Long term?


KCB, Kenya re, unga just to name a few...

Simba set to print 25 before long! How niceApplause Applause Applause
@SufficientlyP
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guru267
#252 Posted : Saturday, July 14, 2012 9:56:15 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
hisah wrote:
http://www.freeimagehosting.net/gp51m


This thing will retrace to 3400-3500 if Q2 results disappoint..

But if they are good we will shoot above 4000...

Thats why i have never understood the use of charts since they cannot predict variables like corporate earnings, economic growth, stock valuations, political environment, or investor emotions!!
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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sparkly
#253 Posted : Sunday, July 15, 2012 6:51:26 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
guru267 wrote:
hisah wrote:
http://www.freeimagehosting.net/gp51m


This thing will retrace to 3400-3500 if Q2 results disappoint..

But if they are good we will shoot above 4000...

Thats why i have never understood the use of charts since they cannot predict variables like corporate earnings, economic growth, stock valuations, political environment, or investor emotions!!


@guru i would say that charts are very good predictors of investor emotion. From @hisah's cartoon, i would that investors are very bullish and a breakout above 4000 looks more likely.
Life is short. Live passionately.
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guru267
#254 Posted : Sunday, July 15, 2012 8:14:42 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
sparkly wrote:

@guru From @hisah's cartoon, i would say that investors are very bullish and a breakout above 4000 looks more likely.


@sparkly so you see a breakout above 4k according to the charts??

what if Q2 earnings disappoint?? What if the shilling suddenly starts spiraling lower again?? What if inflation starts ticking upwards?? What if there is electoral violence??

Will there still be a breakout above 4k??

Chart analysis cannot predict future events or trends and it ignores too many significant variables... "Ceteris paribus" does not apply in the real world!
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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hisah
#255 Posted : Sunday, July 15, 2012 9:49:19 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Aguytrying wrote:
hisah wrote:
http://www.freeimagehosting.net/gp51m


nice cartoon. interpretation? what i can see is the two lines meet at 3,500.

Thats a 10yr chart with a large triangle. A break above 4000 will add more bullish strength while the opposite happens if a fall out of the lower part of the triangle happens. The lines convergence in Mar 2014 tho not shown on the chart.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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guru267
#256 Posted : Sunday, July 15, 2012 10:48:33 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
hisah wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
hisah wrote:
http://www.freeimagehosting.net/gp51m


nice cartoon. interpretation? what i can see is the two lines meet at 3,500.

Thats a 10yr chart with a large triangle. A break above 4000 will add more bullish strength while the opposite happens if a fall out of the lower part of the triangle happens. The lines convergence in Mar 2014 tho not shown on the chart.


And yet in March 2014 we will be headed towards 6,000 on the NSE 20..

Charts can mislead!
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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hisah
#257 Posted : Sunday, July 15, 2012 3:40:20 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
guru267 wrote:
hisah wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
hisah wrote:
http://www.freeimagehosting.net/gp51m


nice cartoon. interpretation? what i can see is the two lines meet at 3,500.

Thats a 10yr chart with a large triangle. A break above 4000 will add more bullish strength while the opposite happens if a fall out of the lower part of the triangle happens. The lines convergence in Mar 2014 tho not shown on the chart.


And yet in March 2014 we will be headed towards 6,000 on the NSE 20..

Charts can mislead!



www.investopedia.com/ter...iangle.asp#axzz20h6yuQPl

That 10yr chart is pending a breakout. Bullish or bearish breakout will be for a long period, least 5yrs. Likely outcome is a bullish breakout smile
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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slykat
#258 Posted : Sunday, July 15, 2012 5:17:30 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 2/20/2007
Posts: 359
hisah wrote:
guru267 wrote:
hisah wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
hisah wrote:
http://www.freeimagehosting.net/gp51m


nice cartoon. interpretation? what i can see is the two lines meet at 3,500.

Thats a 10yr chart with a large triangle. A break above 4000 will add more bullish strength while the opposite happens if a fall out of the lower part of the triangle happens. The lines convergence in Mar 2014 tho not shown on the chart.


And yet in March 2014 we will be headed towards 6,000 on the NSE 20..

Charts can mislead!



www.investopedia.com/ter...iangle.asp#axzz20h6yuQPl

That 10yr chart is pending a breakout. Bullish or bearish breakout will be for a long period, least 5yrs. Likely outcome is a bullish breakout smile


Hopefully I will get a favourable re-entry chance. As it were, I have locked in fab gains. Now just sitting, watching, hoping and timing; with the patience of a hunter. And wanting to believe we are few doing this.
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sparkly
#259 Posted : Sunday, July 15, 2012 10:23:57 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
guru267 wrote:
sparkly wrote:

@guru From @hisah's cartoon, i would say that investors are very bullish and a breakout above 4000 looks more likely.


@sparkly so you see a breakout above 4k according to the charts??

what if Q2 earnings disappoint?? What if the shilling suddenly starts spiraling lower again?? What if inflation starts ticking upwards?? What if there is electoral violence??

Will there still be a breakout above 4k??

Chart analysis cannot predict future events or trends and it ignores too many significant variables... "Ceteris paribus" does not apply in the real world!


@Guru better shut out the macro analysis when dealing with cartoons. This particular cartoon shows a very convincing case for a breakout above 4k. Breakouts typically occur 2/3 of the way to the convergence. The fundamentals on most stocks are also looking strong.
Life is short. Live passionately.
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mnandii
#260 Posted : Monday, July 16, 2012 4:43:30 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
hisah wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
hisah wrote:
http://www.freeimagehosting.net/gp51m


nice cartoon. interpretation? what i can see is the two lines meet at 3,500.

Thats a 10yr chart with a large triangle. A break above 4000 will add more bullish strength while the opposite happens if a fall out of the lower part of the triangle happens. The lines convergence in Mar 2014 tho not shown on the chart.


@hisah.
A triangle has 5 waves and from your image my interpretation is that NSE should push slightly beyond 4000 points completing wave E(the fifth wave) b4 plunging downward. This to me is consistent with the status of the global economy which is in the initial stages of deflation whose bottom is 2016.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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