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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
Rank: Member Joined: 4/15/2008 Posts: 238
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mnandii wrote:mnandii wrote:We are in a deflationary environment and people are calling for a bottom this early? Remember my very first post on this forum when I called for the market to fall strongly to below 2600 levels (NSE 20 Share Index)? The market was way up in the area of 5400 points, no one believed the forecast.
These people who are calling for a bottom now will keep entering the market hoping that it bounces. Yet the market WILL go right through their Stop Losses. As I've maintained before: DO NOT HOLD ANY STOCKS at all at this moment.
When the right time to buy will come 99% of people will not have the guts to do so! Back in August 2016 guys were calling for a bottom in the NSE 20 Share Index.  I was one of those unbelievers, i thought @ 3400 it had finally bottomed out, only for the banks to tank with that interest capping bill. My own research indicated that the market was not going to rise for more than a year and I thought that was ridiculous, the market can't stay down till 2019. I dived head-first into KCB @ 35 and in a matter of months, KCB was trading in the 20-24 region. My question to @Mnandii, we are only on the 3rd Blue-wave that began back in 2015, You've talked of bottoming out at 2,600 but how long before we get there? 2019? Can NSE print 4,000 points within the next 5years? Do it today! Tomorrow is promise to no-one.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2012 Posts: 5,222
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mufasa wrote:mnandii wrote:mnandii wrote:We are in a deflationary environment and people are calling for a bottom this early? Remember my very first post on this forum when I called for the market to fall strongly to below 2600 levels (NSE 20 Share Index)? The market was way up in the area of 5400 points, no one believed the forecast.
These people who are calling for a bottom now will keep entering the market hoping that it bounces. Yet the market WILL go right through their Stop Losses. As I've maintained before: DO NOT HOLD ANY STOCKS at all at this moment.
When the right time to buy will come 99% of people will not have the guts to do so! Back in August 2016 guys were calling for a bottom in the NSE 20 Share Index. I was one of those unbelievers, i thought @ 3400 it had finally bottomed out, only for the banks to tank with that interest capping bill. My own research indicated that the market was not going to rise for more than a year and I thought that was ridiculous, the market can't stay down till 2019. I dived head-first into KCB @ 35 and in a matter of months, KCB was trading in the 20-24 region. My question to @Mnandii, we are only on the 3rd Blue-wave that began back in 2015, You've talked of bottoming out at 2,600 but how long before we get there? 2019? Can NSE print 4,000 points within the next 5years? ... and my broker just sent me a buy recommendation for KCB
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Mukiri wrote:mufasa wrote:mnandii wrote:mnandii wrote:We are in a deflationary environment and people are calling for a bottom this early? Remember my very first post on this forum when I called for the market to fall strongly to below 2600 levels (NSE 20 Share Index)? The market was way up in the area of 5400 points, no one believed the forecast.
These people who are calling for a bottom now will keep entering the market hoping that it bounces. Yet the market WILL go right through their Stop Losses. As I've maintained before: DO NOT HOLD ANY STOCKS at all at this moment.
When the right time to buy will come 99% of people will not have the guts to do so! Back in August 2016 guys were calling for a bottom in the NSE 20 Share Index. I was one of those unbelievers, i thought @ 3400 it had finally bottomed out, only for the banks to tank with that interest capping bill. My own research indicated that the market was not going to rise for more than a year and I thought that was ridiculous, the market can't stay down till 2019. I dived head-first into KCB @ 35 and in a matter of months, KCB was trading in the 20-24 region. My question to @Mnandii, we are only on the 3rd Blue-wave that began back in 2015, You've talked of bottoming out at 2,600 but how long before we get there? 2019? Can NSE print 4,000 points within the next 5years? ... and my broker just sent me a buy recommendation for KCB @mukiri, glad to hear from you. I was very worried the market swallowed you. How do you like the bear? I hope you have and continue to learn how to cope with the bear as well as become sharper on how to navigate the markets. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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mnandii wrote:mnandii wrote:We are in a deflationary environment and people are calling for a bottom this early? Remember my very first post on this forum when I called for the market to fall strongly to below 2600 levels (NSE 20 Share Index)? The market was way up in the area of 5400 points, no one believed the forecast.
These people who are calling for a bottom now will keep entering the market hoping that it bounces. Yet the market WILL go right through their Stop Losses. As I've maintained before: DO NOT HOLD ANY STOCKS at all at this moment.
When the right time to buy will come 99% of people will not have the guts to do so! Back in August 2016 guys were calling for a bottom in the NSE 20 Share Index. I expected the market to put up a strong fight at the 3000 handle since it was a multi year support level. But when it caved in without a fight, that analysis was trashed!
The final signal about the market going to some crazy levels as the bears continue with their damaging ways is mpesa bank. The day mpesa bank has a monthly close below the 15 handle, the uptrend on the monthly chart will be over! Once that event triggers the market will be ready for a steep fall! Elephants fall harder since mpesa bank has a huge weight on the index!
Trading opportunities will still be there during the bear, but for buy and hold investors, standing aside is also an option until the storm calms down 
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/20/2015 Posts: 2,811 Location: Mombasa
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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mnandii wrote:mnandii wrote:We are in a deflationary environment and people are calling for a bottom this early? Remember my very first post on this forum when I called for the market to fall strongly to below 2600 levels (NSE 20 Share Index)? The market was way up in the area of 5400 points, no one believed the forecast.
These people who are calling for a bottom now will keep entering the market hoping that it bounces. Yet the market WILL go right through their Stop Losses. As I've maintained before: DO NOT HOLD ANY STOCKS at all at this moment.
When the right time to buy will come 99% of people will not have the guts to do so! Back in August 2016 guys were calling for a bottom in the NSE 20 Share Index. There are still lots of disbelievers of this bear...I guess the disbelief emanates from the very nature of the downslide coz it has given investors a sliver of hope when things are thick and it has stuck to that script throughout. When the bear is through very few will want to have a look at market prices let alone invest. Most are already weary of the bear after two years, it's not hard to picture how the situation will be after another year or two. On the deflationary note, banks are now unwinding their loan books implying very little new lending while saddled with rising NPLs...illiquidity is gathering pace and it won't be a pleasant show. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/13/2015 Posts: 1,653
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lochaz-index wrote:mnandii wrote:mnandii wrote:We are in a deflationary environment and people are calling for a bottom this early? Remember my very first post on this forum when I called for the market to fall strongly to below 2600 levels (NSE 20 Share Index)? The market was way up in the area of 5400 points, no one believed the forecast.
These people who are calling for a bottom now will keep entering the market hoping that it bounces. Yet the market WILL go right through their Stop Losses. As I've maintained before: DO NOT HOLD ANY STOCKS at all at this moment.
When the right time to buy will come 99% of people will not have the guts to do so! Back in August 2016 guys were calling for a bottom in the NSE 20 Share Index. There are still lots of disbelievers of this bear...I guess the disbelief emanates from the very nature of the downslide coz it has given investors a sliver of hope when things are thick and it has stuck to that script throughout. When the bear is through very few will want to have a look at market prices let alone invest. Most are already weary of the bear after two years, it's not hard to picture how the situation will be after another year or two. On the deflationary note, banks are now unwinding their loan books implying very little new lending while saddled with rising NPLs...illiquidity is gathering pace and it won't be a pleasant show. The illiquidity will hit the real estate the most
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2012 Posts: 5,222
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hisah wrote:Mukiri wrote:mufasa wrote:mnandii wrote:mnandii wrote:We are in a deflationary environment and people are calling for a bottom this early? Remember my very first post on this forum when I called for the market to fall strongly to below 2600 levels (NSE 20 Share Index)? The market was way up in the area of 5400 points, no one believed the forecast.
These people who are calling for a bottom now will keep entering the market hoping that it bounces. Yet the market WILL go right through their Stop Losses. As I've maintained before: DO NOT HOLD ANY STOCKS at all at this moment.
When the right time to buy will come 99% of people will not have the guts to do so! Back in August 2016 guys were calling for a bottom in the NSE 20 Share Index. I was one of those unbelievers, i thought @ 3400 it had finally bottomed out, only for the banks to tank with that interest capping bill. My own research indicated that the market was not going to rise for more than a year and I thought that was ridiculous, the market can't stay down till 2019. I dived head-first into KCB @ 35 and in a matter of months, KCB was trading in the 20-24 region. My question to @Mnandii, we are only on the 3rd Blue-wave that began back in 2015, You've talked of bottoming out at 2,600 but how long before we get there? 2019? Can NSE print 4,000 points within the next 5years? ... and my broker just sent me a buy recommendation for KCB @mukiri, glad to hear from you. I was very worried the market swallowed you. How do you like the bear? I hope you have and continue to learn how to cope with the bear as well as become sharper on how to navigate the markets. I'm fine thank you Sir. Thank you, for your kind words and remembering me.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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Mukiri wrote:hisah wrote:Mukiri wrote:mufasa wrote:mnandii wrote:mnandii wrote:We are in a deflationary environment and people are calling for a bottom this early? Remember my very first post on this forum when I called for the market to fall strongly to below 2600 levels (NSE 20 Share Index)? The market was way up in the area of 5400 points, no one believed the forecast.
These people who are calling for a bottom now will keep entering the market hoping that it bounces. Yet the market WILL go right through their Stop Losses. As I've maintained before: DO NOT HOLD ANY STOCKS at all at this moment.
When the right time to buy will come 99% of people will not have the guts to do so! Back in August 2016 guys were calling for a bottom in the NSE 20 Share Index. I was one of those unbelievers, i thought @ 3400 it had finally bottomed out, only for the banks to tank with that interest capping bill. My own research indicated that the market was not going to rise for more than a year and I thought that was ridiculous, the market can't stay down till 2019. I dived head-first into KCB @ 35 and in a matter of months, KCB was trading in the 20-24 region. My question to @Mnandii, we are only on the 3rd Blue-wave that began back in 2015, You've talked of bottoming out at 2,600 but how long before we get there? 2019? Can NSE print 4,000 points within the next 5years? ... and my broker just sent me a buy recommendation for KCB @mukiri, glad to hear from you. I was very worried the market swallowed you. How do you like the bear? I hope you have and continue to learn how to cope with the bear as well as become sharper on how to navigate the markets. I'm fine thank you Sir. Thank you, for your kind words and remembering me.  "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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Looking at the top three banks' results, Kcb is the outlier. While Equity and Coop have taken a serious beat down, Kcb merely got bruised. They must have pulled some neat business in Q4 to stay the execution. Question would be whether they can keep it up as the competition falls further behind...I have my doubts mainly due to the bulging statutory loan loss reserve. Q1 2017 will be worse than Q4 2016 earnings wise. Assuming the same trajectory throughout the year, FY2017 should come in at about half FY 2016 earnings! The top three banks are all risk-on when it comes to Wanjiku lending, the cap law will slow them down the most. The risk averse aka Barclays, Stanchart, Stanbic should fair better in the short term. Equity's liquidity ratios suggests a profound change in strategy to a risk-off model. Whether that is a coping/short term mechanism to navigate the capping or is a permanent change remains to be seen. My thinking is that they are building a buffer for any shocks stemming from their loan book. When the cap law is lifted, expect a massive NPL washout/credit impairment/charge offs especially for the banks with a large number of Wanjikus in their loan book. Depending on when the law is scrapped, that could make a serious dent on FY2017 or FY2018. So banks are not yet out of the woods not by a long shot. Under the same macro conditions, if interest rates are allowed to revert to the pre-cap era, some borrowers who were borderline delinquent in the capping regime will definitely default. Since the economy will not be making a quick recovery and refinancing will be problematic as it is now, many borrowers will be unable to sustain repayments hence the anticipated write offs. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
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