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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
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VituVingiSana
#2521 Posted : Thursday, February 09, 2017 4:19:49 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,347
Location: Nairobi
wukan wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
The market is active, big volumes are trading meaning People are taking positions,theories are not law.


I know you are expecting a 'V' shaped recovery like in 2009 and 2011. That era ended with Kibaki-the Keynesian economist.

UhuRuto is also Keynesian. They want to spend 2.3-2.6 trillion but expected revenue including foreign aid is 1.7 trillion. That's a hole of 600-900bn. Definitely not Hayekian.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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wukan
#2522 Posted : Thursday, February 09, 2017 6:08:38 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 1,654
VituVingiSana wrote:
wukan wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
The market is active, big volumes are trading meaning People are taking positions,theories are not law.


I know you are expecting a 'V' shaped recovery like in 2009 and 2011. That era ended with Kibaki-the Keynesian economist.

UhuRuto is also Keynesian. They want to spend 2.3-2.6 trillion but expected revenue including foreign aid is 1.7 trillion. That's a hole of 600-900bn. Definitely not Hayekian.


Nope Uhuruto is socialist the kind that Thatcher said eventually run out of other people's money to spend.
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mnandii
#2523 Posted : Thursday, February 09, 2017 7:32:24 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
mnandii wrote:
mnandii wrote:
mnandii wrote:


This is the zoomed in plot of the waves depicting a breakdown of blue wave [iii]. It can be seen that red waves (i) (ii) (iii) and (iv) are complete. The market is now tracing out RED wave (v) which is composed of GREEN waves i, ii and a developing wave iii. Wave iii may still have some way to go down before completing then a consolidation in wave iv then resumption of downtrend in green wave v, of red wave (v), of blue wave [iii]. I have added some lines to depict the scenario that I expect to play out for waves iv then v.




The Start of green wave i is where the arrow is pointing at 3291. Green wave i ended at 3105. Therefore:

wave i = (3291 - 3105) = 186 points.

wave ii =(3186 - 3105) = 81 points

Third waves are usually Fibonacci 1.618, twice or 2.618 X wave 1.

Therefore we should expect green wave iii to bottom at following levels:

(3186 - (1.618 X 186)) = 2885 (which has already been surpassed)

(3186 - (2 X 186)) = 2814

(3186 - (2.618 X 186)) = 2699

So now we look to the two levels i.e. 2814 and 2699 as possible ends of green wave iii. When wave iii is in place you should then expect a sideways consolidation in green wave iv before resumption of the downtrend in green wave v.


NSE closed at 2812 today 27th Jan, 2017. Our target was 2814 smile

We should expect a sideways market to complete wave iv.

Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#2524 Posted : Thursday, February 09, 2017 7:36:58 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304


Expecting the NSE 20 Share Index to find resistance at 2949, the 38.2 % retracement level. Next move after that should take us below 2790 and below.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#2525 Posted : Thursday, February 09, 2017 7:41:30 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
So, You Think Elliott Wave Analysis Is Hard? See Why It's Not.

Quote:
Some people think the Elliott Wave Principle is complicated. Yet, to find trading opportunities all you need to know are the five core patterns:

Impulse waves and diagonals -- which move in the direction of the larger trend
Zigzags, triangles and flats are corrective waves -- which move against that trend


link
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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yosie14
#2526 Posted : Friday, February 10, 2017 5:04:11 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 12/17/2013
Posts: 118
mnandii wrote:


Expecting the NSE 20 Share Index to find resistance at 2949, the 38.2 % retracement level. Next move after that should take us below 2790 and below.




Closed 2951today.
KCB,NMG,PAFR
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mnandii
#2527 Posted : Friday, February 10, 2017 5:47:42 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
yosie14 wrote:
mnandii wrote:


Expecting the NSE 20 Share Index to find resistance at 2949, the 38.2 % retracement level. Next move after that should take us below 2790 and below.




Closed 2951today.


Yesss! smile
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#2528 Posted : Saturday, February 11, 2017 10:47:24 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
Social mood affects everything you do!

Quote:
The Socionomic Connection
It’s a bold claim, but history proves it out: Positive-trending social mood drives prohibition of substances such as alcohol and marijuana; negative-trending mood drives tolerance and relaxed regulation.



Marijuana Prohibition Go Up in Smoke

The Coming Collapse of Marijuana Prohibition

Quote:
In this remarkable July 2009 article, socionomist Euan Wilson made the case that a positively-trending social mood—indicated by a rising stock market—is what produces prohibition of recreational substances such as alcohol and marijuana, whereas a negatively-trending social mood—indicated by a falling stock market—produces relaxed regulation.

Using the prohibition of alcohol as a parallel, Wilson predicted that the Drug War will become more violent and eventually collapse as social mood sours.


In Kenya we are in a major bear market hence negatively trending Social Mood hence efforts to relax prohibition of hard substances:

Experts Give Miraa Clean Bill of Health

Quote:
Miraa, the addictive herb chewed for its stimulative effect, has no negative health impact, Kenyan scientists have said in a shocking study released Thursday.

People who chew herb, also known as khat, are less likely to be obese because their appetite is suppressed, or develop heart complications in the future.

And, better yet, their reproductive health is in tip-top shape.

The findings were released by the Kenya Medical Research Institute (Kemri) at the seventh annual scientific and health conference in Nairobi.


House To Debate Proposal on Bhang Legalisation

Quote:
It will no longer be illegal to plant, sale or trade in cannabis sativa (bhang) if a petition before Parliament becomes law.

The proposal by Mr Gwada Ogot, a researcher, writer and political analyst, would be introduced formally in the Senate once the lawmakers resume from recess on February 14.

It seeks to decriminalise and legalise the drug.

If his wish is granted, bhang will be deleted from the list of narcotic drugs as listed in the Narcotic Drugs and Psychotropic Substances Act of 1994.

Those serving jail terms for offences related to the drug will have to be set free if the law-makers agree to process the petition, into law.

Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#2529 Posted : Saturday, February 11, 2017 11:00:22 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
When you learn Socionomics you read news differently.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Spikes
#2530 Posted : Saturday, February 11, 2017 12:36:43 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/20/2015
Posts: 2,811
Location: Mombasa
mnandii wrote:
When you learn Socionomics you read news differently.



Preach it @mnandii . Paradigm shift on how we read and interpret news is necessary in the contemporary world. ...
John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
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