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Housing Finance: HFCK a diamond in the rough
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MaichBlack
#2491 Posted : Wednesday, August 27, 2025 10:48:25 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,836
VituVingiSana wrote:
1H2025 (vs 1H2024) EPS is down only 52%

What's your future projections of HF @VVS?

Remember you are the one who made me get the rights and I am always very thankful. I was 50 - 50 and I asked you what you think and you explained why you think one should get them. I dove right in plus applied for extra the very last minute.

142% gains later in less than a year I am back at 50 - 50. Keep holding or sell and reallocate the cash elsewhere?
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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  | | Edit by user: Wednesday, August 27, 2025 10:52 AM | Reason: Not specified
VituVingiSana
#2492 Posted : Wednesday, August 27, 2025 1:03:15 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,346
Location: Nairobi
MaichBlack wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
1H2025 (vs 1H2024) EPS is down only 52%

What's your future projections of HF @VVS?

Remember you are the one who made me get the rights and I am always very thankful. I was 50 - 50 and I asked you what you think and you explained why you think one should get them. I dove right in plus applied for extra the very last minute.

142% gains later in less than a year I am back at 50 - 50. Keep holding or sell and reallocate the cash elsewhere?
Applause Applause Applause Very happy for you.

Tough one. HF's PAT/EPS will grow (from 1H25) based on what the CEO was saying. Recoveries, lower funding costs post-Rights, headroom for expansion.

BUT with +150% [PER and PB are not as attractive now]... what next is a good question.

If you want to stick with banks... one that can either do very well for you or cause you unnecessary angst is DTB. You need a 2-3 year outlook.

Low PER and PB with a 7.8% DY (at 89/-) so you get what you would in T-Bills but with potential for higher dividends.

Another is Equity. KE has been a drag on performance but it is improving while DRC will keep growing. The catch is that UG, TZ and DRC need cash to grow even if they are profitable so dividends will remain muted. You need a 2-3 year outlook.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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MaichBlack
#2493 Posted : Wednesday, August 27, 2025 2:54:22 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,836
VituVingiSana wrote:
MaichBlack wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
1H2025 (vs 1H2024) EPS is down only 52%

What's your future projections of HF @VVS?

Remember you are the one who made me get the rights and I am always very thankful. I was 50 - 50 and I asked you what you think and you explained why you think one should get them. I dove right in plus applied for extra the very last minute.

142% gains later in less than a year I am back at 50 - 50. Keep holding or sell and reallocate the cash elsewhere?
Applause Applause Applause Very happy for you.

Tough one. HF's PAT/EPS will grow (from 1H25) based on what the CEO was saying. Recoveries, lower funding costs post-Rights, headroom for expansion.

BUT with +150% [PER and PB are not as attractive now]... what next is a good question.

If you want to stick with banks... one that can either do very well for you or cause you unnecessary angst is DTB. You need a 2-3 year outlook.

Low PER and PB with a 7.8% DY (at 89/-) so you get what you would in T-Bills but with potential for higher dividends.

Another is Equity. KE has been a drag on performance but it is improving while DRC will keep growing. The catch is that UG, TZ and DRC need cash to grow even if they are profitable so dividends will remain muted. You need a 2-3 year outlook.

Thanks @VVS.

I am very heavy on banks. The one I have been loading up on lately is KCB. I have gone all in and my next major buys will be around October to results release date based on cashflow.

I was wondering if I should liquidate HF and put everything in KCB or ride it out.

I am a long term investor but of course every now and then you move things around if and when necessary but not that often.

Equity I am all loaded up. We have had a very long term relationship!! First wife manenos!!! Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly

From the days we were being told it is collapsing, oh, it is being propped up by Kibaki, oh, when Kibaki goes, he will go with it bla bla bla!! Over that time it has grown by leaps and bounds!!!
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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  | | Edit by user: Wednesday, August 27, 2025 2:58 PM | Reason: Not specified
heri
#2494 Posted : Thursday, August 28, 2025 11:44:01 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/14/2011
Posts: 869
Location: nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
MaichBlack wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
1H2025 (vs 1H2024) EPS is down only 52%

What's your future projections of HF @VVS?

Remember you are the one who made me get the rights and I am always very thankful. I was 50 - 50 and I asked you what you think and you explained why you think one should get them. I dove right in plus applied for extra the very last minute.

142% gains later in less than a year I am back at 50 - 50. Keep holding or sell and reallocate the cash elsewhere?
Applause Applause Applause Very happy for you.

Tough one. HF's PAT/EPS will grow (from 1H25) based on what the CEO was saying. Recoveries, lower funding costs post-Rights, headroom for expansion.

BUT with +150% [PER and PB are not as attractive now]... what next is a good question.

If you want to stick with banks... one that can either do very well for you or cause you unnecessary angst is DTB. You need a 2-3 year outlook.

Low PER and PB with a 7.8% DY (at 89/-) so you get what you would in T-Bills but with potential for higher dividends.

Another is Equity. KE has been a drag on performance but it is improving while DRC will keep growing. The catch is that UG, TZ and DRC need cash to grow even if they are profitable so dividends will remain muted. You need a 2-3 year outlook.

@VVS what is your take on stanchart in view of the huge cases awaiting decisions? I love it's DIY but these cases could go bad???
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VituVingiSana
#2495 Posted : Thursday, August 28, 2025 10:14:41 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,346
Location: Nairobi
heri wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
MaichBlack wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
1H2025 (vs 1H2024) EPS is down only 52%

What's your future projections of HF @VVS?

Remember you are the one who made me get the rights and I am always very thankful. I was 50 - 50 and I asked you what you think and you explained why you think one should get them. I dove right in plus applied for extra the very last minute.

142% gains later in less than a year I am back at 50 - 50. Keep holding or sell and reallocate the cash elsewhere?
Applause Applause Applause Very happy for you.

Tough one. HF's PAT/EPS will grow (from 1H25) based on what the CEO was saying. Recoveries, lower funding costs post-Rights, headroom for expansion.

BUT with +150% [PER and PB are not as attractive now]... what next is a good question.

If you want to stick with banks... one that can either do very well for you or cause you unnecessary angst is DTB. You need a 2-3 year outlook.

Low PER and PB with a 7.8% DY (at 89/-) so you get what you would in T-Bills but with potential for higher dividends.

Another is Equity. KE has been a drag on performance but it is improving while DRC will keep growing. The catch is that UG, TZ and DRC need cash to grow even if they are profitable so dividends will remain muted. You need a 2-3 year outlook.

@VVS what is your take on stanchart in view of the huge cases awaiting decisions? I love it's DIY but these cases could go bad???

Another tough one BUT those cases will take years to come to a conclusion given the appeals to the SC.

Let's model the worst case scenario?
Please list all the cases and the amounts then we can work through it.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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heri
#2496 Posted : Friday, August 29, 2025 9:23:24 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/14/2011
Posts: 869
Location: nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
heri wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
MaichBlack wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
1H2025 (vs 1H2024) EPS is down only 52%

What's your future projections of HF @VVS?

Remember you are the one who made me get the rights and I am always very thankful. I was 50 - 50 and I asked you what you think and you explained why you think one should get them. I dove right in plus applied for extra the very last minute.

142% gains later in less than a year I am back at 50 - 50. Keep holding or sell and reallocate the cash elsewhere?
Applause Applause Applause Very happy for you.

Tough one. HF's PAT/EPS will grow (from 1H25) based on what the CEO was saying. Recoveries, lower funding costs post-Rights, headroom for expansion.

BUT with +150% [PER and PB are not as attractive now]... what next is a good question.

If you want to stick with banks... one that can either do very well for you or cause you unnecessary angst is DTB. You need a 2-3 year outlook.

Low PER and PB with a 7.8% DY (at 89/-) so you get what you would in T-Bills but with potential for higher dividends.

Another is Equity. KE has been a drag on performance but it is improving while DRC will keep growing. The catch is that UG, TZ and DRC need cash to grow even if they are profitable so dividends will remain muted. You need a 2-3 year outlook.

@VVS what is your take on stanchart in view of the huge cases awaiting decisions? I love it's DIY but these cases could go bad???

Another tough one BUT those cases will take years to come to a conclusion given the appeals to the SC.

Let's model the worst case scenario?
Please list all the cases and the amounts then we can work through it.


I am not so well informed but I understand there are 2 major cases. Which are already at the Supreme Court? Already gone through the lower courts and even Appeals court so end could be near with decisions

1. Supreme Court; Standard Chartered Bank Kenya vs Manchester Outfitters (Potential Claim KES32B)

2. Former employees are claiming for a payment of 30B. And they won at the Tribunal, High Court and Court of Appeal. StanChart has lost all 3 times.

SCBK obtained an injunction at the high court delaying payment of 30B to the former employees. High court will rule on the injunction on 9th September

But I think for this pension, the amount will be recalculated not necessarily what they are claiming is payable

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MaichBlack
#2497 Posted : Thursday, September 04, 2025 3:27:09 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,836
MaichBlack wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
1H2025 (vs 1H2024) EPS is down only 52%

What's your future projections of HF @VVS?

Remember you are the one who made me get the rights and I am always very thankful. I was 50 - 50 and I asked you what you think and you explained why you think one should get them. I dove right in plus applied for extra the very last minute.

142% gains later in less than a year I am back at 50 - 50. Keep holding or sell and reallocate the cash elsewhere?

11/= prints. 175% gains!!!

Making the decision to sell or continue holding becoming even more difficult. Still holding...
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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obiero
#2498 Posted : Thursday, September 04, 2025 5:08:01 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 14,211
Location: nairobi
Dividend will only be paid from 2028 once/if negative equity is reversed in 2027. As it was in the beginning, so shall it be in the end. I speak in code. http://m.wazua.co.ke/for...aspx?g=posts&t=18276

KQ ABP 4.26
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  | | Edit by user: Thursday, September 04, 2025 7:21 PM | Reason: Not specified
obiero
#2499 Posted : Monday, September 08, 2025 2:13:52 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 14,211
Location: nairobi
solidly overbought. slight correction incoming

KQ ABP 4.26
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obiero
#2500 Posted : Tuesday, September 16, 2025 8:04:06 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 14,211
Location: nairobi
obiero wrote:
solidly overbought. slight correction incoming

watch and learn

KQ ABP 4.26
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