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CBK MPC Meet!!!
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Cde Monomotapa
#241 Posted : Monday, September 03, 2012 9:31:24 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
hisah wrote:
guru267 wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
August inflation rate drops to 6.09% from July's 7.74%. All signs are clear. Over to MPC


400-500bps will be the way of the MPC!!!

The only way the base lending rate falls to 18% is if the CBR is at 11-12%



My only worry is opening the money flood within an election fever period...


I'm more concerned about the trends oil but glad at how other base resources & metals we import have trended down. An offset somewhat for production inflation. The rains outlook is looking up. Elections is just an event..the money can be mopped up but the environment for broad-based productivity must sustain.
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hisah
#242 Posted : Monday, September 03, 2012 9:43:23 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
guru267 wrote:
hisah wrote:
guru267 wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
August inflation rate drops to 6.09% from July's 7.74%. All signs are clear. Over to MPC


400-500bps will be the way of the MPC!!!

The only way the base lending rate falls to 18% is if the CBR is at 11-12%



My only worry is opening the money flood within an election fever period...


The question is do you believe an 18% base lending rate is fair in this environment??

If yes, (i think it is more than fair to the banks) the CBR must be slashed by 400bps!

This is because the banks will not slash a single basis point more than the CBK!

Why cant KE base lending rate be lowered to 10%?
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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StatMeister
#243 Posted : Monday, September 03, 2012 9:48:33 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 5/23/2010
Posts: 868
Location: La Islas Galápagos
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
hisah wrote:
guru267 wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
August inflation rate drops to 6.09% from July's 7.74%. All signs are clear. Over to MPC


400-500bps will be the way of the MPC!!!

The only way the base lending rate falls to 18% is if the CBR is at 11-12%



My only worry is opening the money flood within an election fever period...


I'm more concerned about the trends oil but glad at how other base resources & metals we import have trended down. An offset somewhat for production inflation. The rains outlook is looking up. Elections is just an event..the money can be mopped up but the environment for broad-based productivity must sustain.


Relax, high commodity prices need vibrant economies to stay up. Just a matter of time and oil will follow the pack.
A bad day fishing is better than a good day at work
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hisah
#244 Posted : Monday, September 03, 2012 10:17:02 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
hisah wrote:
guru267 wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
August inflation rate drops to 6.09% from July's 7.74%. All signs are clear. Over to MPC


400-500bps will be the way of the MPC!!!

The only way the base lending rate falls to 18% is if the CBR is at 11-12%



My only worry is opening the money flood within an election fever period...


I'm more concerned about the trends oil but glad at how other base resources & metals we import have trended down. An offset somewhat for production inflation. The rains outlook is looking up. Elections is just an event..the money can be mopped up but the environment for broad-based productivity must sustain.

I'd rather that the money flood trigger is released post election. This way the liquidity will quickly flow back into the econ - picture 2003 - 2004 period.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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hisah
#245 Posted : Tuesday, September 04, 2012 1:13:44 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
hisah wrote:
I like the Aussie dollar, Canadian dollar, Swiss francs and euros... Let the CBR plunge smile



I hope @kizee you positioned in August the possibilities on the above ccys.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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hisah
#246 Posted : Tuesday, September 04, 2012 2:43:03 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
While a CBR sizable rate cut would be welcome, I hope central planning are also keeping an eye on the commodities market especially oil. I don't like the oil rebound since July and it is likely the 2012 highs will be tested and worse surpassed with the current momentum!

$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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youcan'tstopusnow
#247 Posted : Tuesday, September 04, 2012 3:34:28 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
hisah, a conundrum that. What with us being potential oil exporters. I take it that low oil prices discourage exploration activities, ama?
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#248 Posted : Tuesday, September 04, 2012 4:17:57 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,225
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
And NSE's banking stocks already factoring in the expected rate slash kesho. Check out Simba, memba & mpesa doing prices last seen when inflation was in single digits!
Over to you prof!
@SufficientlyP
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hisah
#249 Posted : Tuesday, September 04, 2012 4:58:01 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
hisah, a conundrum that. What with us being potential oil exporters. I take it that low oil prices discourage exploration activities, ama?

Obviously no investor would want to pour money yet the prospects won't pay back. Yes, it is a dilemma...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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youcan'tstopusnow
#250 Posted : Tuesday, September 04, 2012 8:34:11 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
Uganda's central bank cut its key lending rate for the fourth straight month on Tuesday to spur private credit growth and criticised commercial lenders for failing to lower their rates after earlier rate cuts.

The 200 basis point cut, which was in line with market expectations, leaves the Bank of Uganda's benchmark rate at 15.0 percent from a high of 21 percent earlier this year.

"Clearly the current rates of lending are exorbitant and we can't accept that these rates continue," Governor Emmanuel Tumusiime-Mutebile told a news conference.

http://af.reuters.com/ar...s/idAFJOE88301V20120904

The stage is set for the MPC...
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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