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Madness at the NSE
Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2008 Posts: 1,438
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heri wrote:mwanahisa wrote:Guys, I know Equity Bank has been a market darling but the delay in the release of results has me VERY worried. In their 3rd quarter results, Equity also had a staggering loss of 45 BILLION KSHS in FAIR VALUE CHANGES IN FVOCI assets. This was on investment securities held with a value of Kshs 352 Billion. It looks like they invested big time in govt securities when rates were low. I doubt whether they would have been able to unwind these positions before year-end. If so, then we should even brace ourselves for an actual loss on their P&L, because the PBT in September was 44.2 B, i.e. lower than the mark to market losses on their bond positions! This was pretty scary. I remember this. Was this huge investment in GOK securities unique to equity? What about KCB , Coop ? The exposure at KCB and Coop was not as bad. Full year losses (as at 31.12.22) on Fair Value changes in KCB stood at Kshs 4.2 B and Kshs 8.6B at Coop Bank respectively.
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Rank: Member Joined: 11/21/2018 Posts: 564 Location: Britain
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:Queen wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:SHORT TERM
If you bought SAFARICOM at 16.50 last week on Thursday, you should consider selling at 19 and wait to get back in at 15-16 levels.
You would be a fool to stare at a 15% gain in 1 week while SITTING ON YOUR HANDS! If you factor in the transactional charges, your gains are only 10.8%.... not very attractive since the direction of the share price is still uncertain/unpredictable. To each, their own. As for me, 10% in 6 days IS EXTREMELY ATTRACTIVE! As for the direction of the stock, the trend is downwards, has been since November 2021 when for the first time in a decade, they reported reduced profits. Of course, at some point, the trend will reverse, hopefully in May, if the profitability improves when they release FY2022-2023. Until then, what we have now is a retracement. The order book(offboard bids and offers) also points to a downward trend. Agreed. What is your take on BAT trading @420-430 despite declaring such a juicy final dividend?
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,225 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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I'd lump up BAT and Stanchart together. They are great dividend stocks with yields of above 10% and are great during these recession years as they can make up for any foregone capital gains with their decent dividend yields. Unfortunately, they are not the darling of the foreign investors, who tend to go for stocks that have interrupted sectors of an economy, the likes of Safaricom and Equity Bank - the blue eyed boys. Such stocks tend to be growth stocks but with a track record of paying dividends. And because these foreign investors tend to have deep pockets, the blue eyed stocks get bid and their prices soar, which also partly explains their low dividend yields. @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,225 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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FED hikes by 25bps to 5%. Essentially, in the US, this means... More bailouts for the rich. Higher mortgage payments for the poor. In Kenya, and the rest of emerging and frontier markets, a stronger dollar will lead to more capital flight, more depreciation of the local currencies vs the USD, more pain at the Stock Market! Next FED meet May 2023! @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Member Joined: 8/1/2019 Posts: 106
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:SHORT TERM
If you bought SAFARICOM at 16.50 last week on Thursday, you should consider selling at 19 and wait to get back in at 15-16 levels.
You would be a fool to stare at a 15% gain in 1 week while SITTING ON YOUR HANDS! Sometimes you really just have to book your gains.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,225 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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Tomorrow, season 2 of the rout begins! @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,225 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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McGill wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:SHORT TERM
If you bought SAFARICOM at 16.50 last week on Thursday, you should consider selling at 19 and wait to get back in at 15-16 levels.
You would be a fool to stare at a 15% gain in 1 week while SITTING ON YOUR HANDS! Sometimes you really just have to book your gains. It's something you learn with time! @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Member Joined: 8/1/2019 Posts: 106
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:McGill wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:SHORT TERM
If you bought SAFARICOM at 16.50 last week on Thursday, you should consider selling at 19 and wait to get back in at 15-16 levels.
You would be a fool to stare at a 15% gain in 1 week while SITTING ON YOUR HANDS! Sometimes you really just have to book your gains. It's something you learn with time! Over 5 years in the market and I still struggle with it. Something goes up 15% in a short period and the thinking is always that it will continue rising.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/2/2010 Posts: 1,089
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In the market there are traders and long-term buyers. You have to decide what camp you are on. Personally I am on the buy and hold side especially with our 2% in and 2% out commissions. This market is brutal to traders because of the fees. So a 15% gain is actually only a net fee 11% gain.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,804 Location: NAIROBI
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Queen wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:Queen wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:SHORT TERM
If you bought SAFARICOM at 16.50 last week on Thursday, you should consider selling at 19 and wait to get back in at 15-16 levels.
You would be a fool to stare at a 15% gain in 1 week while SITTING ON YOUR HANDS! If you factor in the transactional charges, your gains are only 10.8%.... not very attractive since the direction of the share price is still uncertain/unpredictable. To each, their own. As for me, 10% in 6 days IS EXTREMELY ATTRACTIVE! As for the direction of the stock, the trend is downwards, has been since November 2021 when for the first time in a decade, they reported reduced profits. Of course, at some point, the trend will reverse, hopefully in May, if the profitability improves when they release FY2022-2023. Until then, what we have now is a retracement. The order book(offboard bids and offers) also points to a downward trend. Agreed. What is your take on BAT trading @420-430 despite declaring such a juicy final dividend? Yard stick is 12% dividend yield Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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