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lochaz-index
#4881 Posted : Wednesday, July 06, 2016 10:44:45 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
lochaz-index wrote:
Peak real estate? Four UK property funds have suspended investor redemption and in quick succession I might add. This is turning out to be quite the rout. Other funds face the same fate since fire sales can't be done fast enough to meet liquidity demands.

Financials are also in the firing line if things turn out to be nasty on this front. They just can't catch a break nowadays.

http://www.businessinsid...uk-property-fund-2016-7

With that development, some contagion to other markets is quite in order. I don't think the global real estate sector will shake off this one if it blows up. From the US, China, Australia and SSA(including KE) corrections of varying degrees are inevitable.

If the bonds get drawn into this sell-off...

I may have spoken too soon. The number of property funds that have gated investors is rising rapidly. It's now up two to six.
http://mobile.nytimes.co...s-after-brexit-vote.html
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Mainat
#4882 Posted : Thursday, July 07, 2016 6:35:01 AM
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Joined: 11/21/2006
Posts: 1,590
On the contraire, I think GBP is heading towards 1.20.
UK property funds are signalling significant poor appetite for the UK economy generally post-Brexit and I think it's heading into a recession.

Only thing that will reverse the trend will be fast resolution of which EEA model the UK prefers.
Sehemu ndio nyumba
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lochaz-index
#4883 Posted : Thursday, July 07, 2016 8:27:41 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
lochaz-index wrote:
[quote=lochaz-index]Peak real estate? Four UK property funds have suspended investor redemption and in quick succession I might add. This is turning out to be quite the rout. Other funds face the same fate since fire sales can't be done fast enough to meet liquidity demands.

Financials are also in the firing line if things turn out to be nasty on this front. They just can't catch a break nowadays.

http://www.businessinsid...uk-property-fund-2016-7

With that development, some contagion to other markets is quite in order. I don't think the global real estate sector will shake off this one if it blows up. From the US, China, Australia and SSA(including KE) corrections of varying degrees are inevitable.

If the bonds get drawn into this sell-off...

I may have spoken too soon. The number of property funds that have gated investors is rising rapidly. It's now up two to six.
http://mobile.nytimes.co...-after-brexit-vote.html[/quote]
Three more funds have joined the party by choosing to impose haircuts on their holdings instead of gating investors; all with the aim of dissuading them from cashing in.

http://www.reuters.com/a...roperty-lg-idUSL8N19T248
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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lochaz-index
#4884 Posted : Thursday, July 07, 2016 8:50:36 PM
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Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
Mainat wrote:
On the contraire, I think GBP is heading towards 1.20.
UK property funds are signalling significant poor appetite for the UK economy generally post-Brexit and I think it's heading into a recession.

Only thing that will reverse the trend will be fast resolution of which EEA model the UK prefers.

Both a weakened GBP and a UK recession were looming large. That is, irrespective of whether Britain chose to stay put or bail out of the EU, both events were a distinct possibility. Brexit just happened to make them more visible.

The property sector on the other hand was a bubble waiting to burst. It might keep chugging for a short while even after the gating fiasco, but I don't think there is that much gas left in the tank. Add a tax hike that was introduced last year and prices have nowhere to go but down.

By panicking/quitting the EU first, Britain has saved itself from some unnecessary headaches.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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murchr
#4885 Posted : Monday, July 11, 2016 7:36:00 AM
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Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
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lochaz-index
#4886 Posted : Friday, July 15, 2016 9:27:15 PM
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Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
Corporate defaults are on course to match the GFC high. This crisis is still in slow motion and barely visible to investors. High corporate debt/ebidta ratios will crush businesses once the deleveraging process gathers any form of momentum. http://www.zerohedge.com...-financial-crisis-record
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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murchr
#4887 Posted : Sunday, July 17, 2016 10:32:18 PM
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Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
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lochaz-index
#4888 Posted : Tuesday, July 19, 2016 8:54:52 PM
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Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
Bail-in or bail-out or a hybrid of the two? The latter is more likely as a middle ground to placate Italy but still risks creating a financial meltdown which could in turn morph into a political one thanks to haircuts on subordinate bondholders. http://www.bloomberg.com...sis-backed-by-top-court

The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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hisah
#4889 Posted : Wednesday, July 20, 2016 6:01:50 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
lochaz-index wrote:
Bail-in or bail-out or a hybrid of the two? The latter is more likely as a middle ground to placate Italy but still risks creating a financial meltdown which could in turn morph into a political one thanks to haircuts on subordinate bondholders. http://www.bloomberg.com...sis-backed-by-top-court


German debt securities that yield less than the ECB’s minus 0.4 deposit rate have grown to more than 60 percent, based on a $1.13 trillion Bloomberg German bond index. That means they’re ineligible for the purchases. Analysts from UBS Group AG and SEB AB are estimating the central bank may run out of German targets within six months, and as soon as August, unless the rules are broadened.

ECB Fast Exhausting German Bonds for QE Buying as Yields Tumble

Euroland is in great fix. One can't envy them.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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lochaz-index
#4890 Posted : Wednesday, July 20, 2016 8:46:54 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
hisah wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
Bail-in or bail-out or a hybrid of the two? The latter is more likely as a middle ground to placate Italy but still risks creating a financial meltdown which could in turn morph into a political one thanks to haircuts on subordinate bondholders. http://www.bloomberg.com...sis-backed-by-top-court


German debt securities that yield less than the ECB’s minus 0.4 deposit rate have grown to more than 60 percent, based on a $1.13 trillion Bloomberg German bond index. That means they’re ineligible for the purchases. Analysts from UBS Group AG and SEB AB are estimating the central bank may run out of German targets within six months, and as soon as August, unless the rules are broadened.

ECB Fast Exhausting German Bonds for QE Buying as Yields Tumble

Euroland is in great fix. One can't envy them.

Joining the BoJ freak train heading to ran out of monetizing space. Some bubble they have created here. The coming bond collapse will be one for the archives.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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lochaz-index
#4891 Posted : Friday, July 22, 2016 11:14:06 PM
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Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
New Zealand's lenders fretting over elevated property prices. Real estate bubbles are all over the park yet none of them has boiled over so far.
http://m.nzherald.co.nz/...3&objectid=11678189

Denmark too is getting a piece of the action thanks to NIRP. Sample this;
Quote:
With no other country on the planet having experienced negative rates longer than Denmark, the distortions the policy is wreaking may provide a preview of what other economies face should they go down a similar path. Danes can get short-term mortgages at negative interest rates, and pay less to borrow for 30 years than the U.S. government.

http://www.bloomberg.com...rket-in-negative-spiral
In a couple of years, the roll call of countries being squeezed by the brunt of a real estate contraction will be very long.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Metasploit
#4892 Posted : Saturday, July 23, 2016 9:00:50 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 985
Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
With real sovereign yields in emerging markets high, relative to a flattening U.S. yield curve, the data suggests investors are ignoring political risks that have been exposed by events like last week's failed coup in Turkey, even if they're doing so through gritted teeth.

Moreso from Negative yielding European bonds


Capital Flight

“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
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alutacontinua
#4893 Posted : Tuesday, July 26, 2016 2:02:15 AM
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Joined: 3/23/2011
Posts: 304
https://www.theguardian....negative-interest-rates

Negative Interest Rates....
You dont have to be great to START but you have to start to be GREAT!!!!!!!!
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hisah
#4894 Posted : Tuesday, July 26, 2016 5:41:49 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
alutacontinua wrote:
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jul/25/natwest-paves-way-for-introduction-of-negative-interest-rates

Negative Interest Rates....

The only place to hide is the usd. That strong usd will shutter the system in a few years time.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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alutacontinua
#4895 Posted : Wednesday, July 27, 2016 9:18:43 AM
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Joined: 3/23/2011
Posts: 304
http://www.cnbc.com/2016...nd-quarter-of-2015.html

Second quarter net income for DB down 98%
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lochaz-index
#4896 Posted : Wednesday, July 27, 2016 10:02:36 AM
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Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
alutacontinua wrote:
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/07/27/deutsche-bank-says-q2-revenues-were-74-billion-euros-down-20-versus-second-quarter-of-2015.html

Second quarter net income for DB down 98%

Right on schedule. But whoa! 98% is huge. The sharks must have already started to circle around its AT1/CoCo bonds. The life in this bank will be snuffed out sooner rather than later. Nice set up for the earnings season.
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hisah
#4897 Posted : Wednesday, July 27, 2016 10:15:54 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
lochaz-index wrote:
alutacontinua wrote:
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/07/27/deutsche-bank-says-q2-revenues-were-74-billion-euros-down-20-versus-second-quarter-of-2015.html

Second quarter net income for DB down 98%

Right on schedule. But whoa! 98% is huge. The sharks must have already started to circle around its AT1/CoCo bonds. The life in this bank will be snuffed out sooner rather than later. Nice set up for the earnings season.

The derivatives counter just got triggered!

SoS Pray
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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lochaz-index
#4898 Posted : Wednesday, July 27, 2016 5:01:40 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
hisah wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
alutacontinua wrote:
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/07/27/deutsche-bank-says-q2-revenues-were-74-billion-euros-down-20-versus-second-quarter-of-2015.html

Second quarter net income for DB down 98%

Right on schedule. But whoa! 98% is huge. The sharks must have already started to circle around its AT1/CoCo bonds. The life in this bank will be snuffed out sooner rather than later. Nice set up for the earnings season.

The derivatives counter just got triggered!

SoS Pray

When counterparties fail and gross derivatives exposure becomes net in an instance...it will be an epic collapse. As Warren buffet says, they are weapons of mass financial destruction.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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alutacontinua
#4899 Posted : Tuesday, August 02, 2016 9:10:58 AM
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Joined: 3/23/2011
Posts: 304
Deutsche Bank to be removed from the Stoxx Europe 50 - BBG

Interesting to note that Soros bought DB shares as a hedge to his GBP long before the #Brexit vote.
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alutacontinua
#4900 Posted : Tuesday, August 02, 2016 9:23:29 AM
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Joined: 3/23/2011
Posts: 304
murchr wrote:


Things are getting really ugly in Venezuela....."Maduro issued a decree recently ordering citizens to leave their jobs in the private sector to be put to work in the fields"

https://pjmedia.com/tren...he-fields-for-citizens/
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