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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20

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hisah		#2441 Posted : Wednesday, January 25, 2017 10:18:41 AM
Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977		VituVingiSana wrote: hisah wrote: maka wrote: mkate_nusu wrote: mnandii wrote: mnandii wrote: Taking cue from our original post no. 1 here we now have an updated NSE 20 Share Index Chart below. Note that these are Weekly data points. Our wave B completed and now the market is falling in wave C as per our original forecast three years ago. If wave C completes at a point where it is the same length as wave A (Wave A = 6026 - 2576 ), then we should expect the current bear market to bottom at about 1700 level (the blue dashed line). I'll post a daily chart to zoom in on the falling impulse wave which is in blue wave [iii]. Closer look shortly. @prophet mnandii I finally accepted the vision forecast in october last year and sold off large portions which has saved me quite a lot. Let us know when you see the new wave upwards is going to begin after we bottom out Wololo 1700 By the time the index breaks below 2300 expect a lot of civil unrest which can easily propel the index below 2000! I wonder where @mukiri went. I hope he is fine. Wouldn't this be a case of the tail wagging the dog? A drop in the index due to "riots" [think PEV 2008 and the subsequent severe bear in 2009] due to a toxic business environment that affects sales/profits of listed firms. Why would there be unrest in Kenya on account of the index dropping when: - Less than 20% of the "investing" population have shares - Even fewer have a significant part of their portfolio in shares (most Kenyans have "land" not shares as their primary investment.) - Over 50% of all CDSC accounts are inactive. - Those who are active (or have significant shares) are unlikely to riot or cause unrest. Such a dramatic drop would mean the economy has snapped meaning a lot of firms will be out of business with many guys jobless. High unemployment rates usually precede civil unrest! The rate at which KE banks are cutting jobs is of concern! Are economic stagnation and unemployment fueling social unrest? Quote: This latest report found that, since the global crisis, social unrest had increased in a majority of economies. Insufficient economic growth and high unemployment rates are the two most important determinants. Youth unemployment, like all unemployment, increases social unrest, but the impact of total unemployment on social unrest was actually larger than the effect of youth unemployment, specifically. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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hisah		#2442 Posted : Wednesday, January 25, 2017 10:30:31 AM
Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977		@mnandii have you been following the Aramco IPO developments? I have a nagging feel that when this supersized IPO floats in 2018, all top cream markets (G10) will top!!! $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Metasploit		#2443 Posted : Wednesday, January 25, 2017 11:31:22 AM
Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 985 Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania		hisah wrote: @mnandii have you been following the Aramco IPO developments? I have a nagging feel that when this supersized IPO floats in 2018, all top cream markets (G10) will top!!! I have a feeling the US Market is topping..Those flashy headlines and continual all time high breakings of the indices.. Where does money flow in the event the US market tops ??? to the US bonds ?? “The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
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Metasploit		#2444 Posted : Wednesday, January 25, 2017 11:33:39 AM
Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 985 Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania		At the NSE,both Demand and supply are thinning!! Always a perfect time to manipulate the market and do stress tests on supply and demand I need some funds “The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
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hisah		#2445 Posted : Wednesday, January 25, 2017 11:42:35 AM
Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977		hisah wrote: mnandii wrote: "Honeymoon"? Sorry Dear, I'm Not in the Mood Quote: We're in uncharted territory. Donald Trump has defied political history at every turn. But, does history become irrelevant just because you're in uncharted territory? Water is still wet in uncharted territory, and if you cut yourself you'll probably still bleed. A real honeymoon means a happy couple -- and Donald Trump hasn't done much to make his bride -- namely the public -- happy. She's being dragged along kicking and screaming... link If Dow scales above 22000 by March the top will likely set in... Another alternate view via the VIX monthly chart which confirms the US markets are in topping process. Volatility fits coming soon... $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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mlennyma		#2446 Posted : Wednesday, January 25, 2017 12:13:38 PM
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,194 Location: nairobi		All time low in kenya coming as U.S talks of all time high "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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VituVingiSana		#2447 Posted : Wednesday, January 25, 2017 1:15:15 PM
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,346 Location: Nairobi		mlennyma wrote: All time low in kenya coming as U.S talks of all time high Some say Kenya's market(s) are directly correlated to the global markets but I am not so sure. If we can get through the elections [free and fair, transparent, no violence, no drama] then the flight from the US markets will give the good firms on the NSE a solid boost. That said, the incumbent/new government has to cut down on waste [insert laughter track] and debt [no, I am not optimistic it will happen] for the NSE to make a solid and sustainable comeback. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - *to paraphrase Warren Buffett*
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mlennyma		#2448 Posted : Wednesday, January 25, 2017 1:33:58 PM
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,194 Location: nairobi		VituVingiSana wrote: mlennyma wrote: All time low in kenya coming as U.S talks of all time high Some say Kenya's market(s) are directly correlated to the global markets but I am not so sure. If we can get through the elections [free and fair, transparent, no violence, no drama] then the flight from the US markets will give the good firms on the NSE a solid boost. That said, the incumbent/new government has to cut down on waste [insert laughter track] and debt [no, I am not optimistic it will happen] for the NSE to make a solid and sustainable comeback. the cycle of losing everything in gain every 5 years is going to drive out many "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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VituVingiSana		#2449 Posted : Wednesday, January 25, 2017 1:57:32 PM
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,346 Location: Nairobi		True @miennyma It's a tough scenario. I am a long-term investor. I see lots of value eg KenRe [we need/buy insurance all the time], KK [fuel is a necessity], Unga [food/FCMG], etc at today's prices but sometimes I wonder if I should sell at these prices... And get back in July 2017 at the same/lower prices! [Use the cash to pay off debt, invest in T-Bills/Bonds, etc] I remain wary of MOST firms on the NSE and I have given examples of my non-investable firms. These would probably be non-investable for me regardless of the economic situation or for some even the price eg KQ until there's a clear roadmap to eliminate the Negative Equity. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - *to paraphrase Warren Buffett*
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hisah		#2450 Posted : Wednesday, January 25, 2017 2:37:51 PM
Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977		VituVingiSana wrote: mlennyma wrote: All time low in kenya coming as U.S talks of all time high Some say Kenya's market(s) are directly correlated to the global markets but I am not so sure. If we can get through the elections [free and fair, transparent, no violence, no drama] then the flight from the US markets will give the good firms on the NSE a solid boost. That said, the incumbent/new government has to cut down on waste [insert laughter track] and debt [no, I am not optimistic it will happen] for the NSE to make a solid and sustainable comeback. The KE tax policy needs to be reviewed for fair representation. Since treasury introduced CGT on equities and bonds and later back-tracked on it, the equity market topped out and has never recovered. The damage done in 2015 by that move is still in play to date. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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