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Housing Finance: HFCK a diamond in the rough
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Ericsson
#2441 Posted : Thursday, December 26, 2024 8:21:10 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,804
Location: NAIROBI
obiero wrote:
obiero wrote:
obiero wrote:
Expect an oversubscribed event

Let the weak say, I am strong. Let the blind say, I can see

The current share price of HF Group Limited (HFCK) is KES 4.48. HFCK closed its last trading day (Monday, December 23, 2024) at 4.48 KES per share on the Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE), recording a 6.4% gain over its previous closing price of 4.21 KES. HF began the year with a share price of 3.48 KES and has since gained 28.7% on that price valuation, ranking it 16th on the NSE in terms of year-to-date performance. Shareholders can be optimistic about HFCK knowing the stock has accrued 15% over the past four-week period—third best on NSE.



When the rights issue shares start trading,price will go below ksh.3
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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MaichBlack
#2442 Posted : Tuesday, December 31, 2024 12:07:27 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,836
Ericsson wrote:
obiero wrote:
obiero wrote:
obiero wrote:
Expect an oversubscribed event

Let the weak say, I am strong. Let the blind say, I can see

The current share price of HF Group Limited (HFCK) is KES 4.48. HFCK closed its last trading day (Monday, December 23, 2024) at 4.48 KES per share on the Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE), recording a 6.4% gain over its previous closing price of 4.21 KES. HF began the year with a share price of 3.48 KES and has since gained 28.7% on that price valuation, ranking it 16th on the NSE in terms of year-to-date performance. Shareholders can be optimistic about HFCK knowing the stock has accrued 15% over the past four-week period—third best on NSE.



When the rights issue shares start trading,price will go below ksh.3

And that clearly never happened 4.51/= today. 50% above your best case scenario prediction.
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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  | | Edit by user: Tuesday, December 31, 2024 12:10 PM | Reason: Not specified
obiero
#2443 Posted : Tuesday, December 31, 2024 5:33:27 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 14,211
Location: nairobi
MaichBlack wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
obiero wrote:
obiero wrote:
obiero wrote:
Expect an oversubscribed event

Let the weak say, I am strong. Let the blind say, I can see

The current share price of HF Group Limited (HFCK) is KES 4.48. HFCK closed its last trading day (Monday, December 23, 2024) at 4.48 KES per share on the Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE), recording a 6.4% gain over its previous closing price of 4.21 KES. HF began the year with a share price of 3.48 KES and has since gained 28.7% on that price valuation, ranking it 16th on the NSE in terms of year-to-date performance. Shareholders can be optimistic about HFCK knowing the stock has accrued 15% over the past four-week period—third best on NSE.



When the rights issue shares start trading,price will go below ksh.3

And that clearly never happened 4.51/= today. 50% above your best case scenario prediction.

A faulty prediction based fundamentally on hot air. Instead, the price is rallying towards KES 5.00

KQ ABP 4.26
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  | | Edit by user: Tuesday, December 31, 2024 5:41 PM | Reason: Not specified
MaichBlack
#2444 Posted : Thursday, January 02, 2025 10:20:31 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,836
Leo tuko 4.89/=

Thanks @vvs. I took your advice seriously as always. You always go on facts, data etc. Never emotions!!

I was 50 - 50 on the rights but "talking" to you pushed me in the right direction.
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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VituVingiSana
#2445 Posted : Thursday, January 02, 2025 10:34:08 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,344
Location: Nairobi
MaichBlack wrote:
Leo tuko 4.89/=

Thanks @vvs. I took your advice seriously as always. You always go on facts, data etc. Never emotions!!

I was 50 - 50 on the rights but "talking" to you pushed me in the right direction.

I am glad I could help.
I did not participate though since I picked up DTB. I am also in ABSA.
All 3 have done well on a price basis.

Ceteris Paribus
ABSA will likely pay a final dividend on 1.00 to 1.25 [I like dividends]
DTB will likely pay a final dividend on 6.00 to 7.50 [I like dividends]
HF is unlikely to pay a FY24 dividend but there is a sweet capital gains!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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obiero
#2446 Posted : Thursday, January 02, 2025 10:51:59 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 14,211
Location: nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
MaichBlack wrote:
Leo tuko 4.89/=

Thanks @vvs. I took your advice seriously as always. You always go on facts, data etc. Never emotions!!

I was 50 - 50 on the rights but "talking" to you pushed me in the right direction.

I am glad I could help.
I did not participate though since I picked up DTB. I am also in ABSA.
All 3 have done well on a price basis.

Ceteris Paribus
ABSA will likely pay a final dividend on 1.00 to 1.25 [I like dividends]
DTB will likely pay a final dividend on 6.00 to 7.50 [I like dividends]
HF is unlikely to pay a FY24 dividend but there is a sweet capital gains!

People are celebrating getting into HF share at KES 4.00 while it traded lows of KES 3.60 just a few days back. Live and learn. Next stop KES 7.00. @vvs HF will not pay dividends in FY2024. This was discussed and disclosed in the IM debrief session

KQ ABP 4.26
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  | | Edit by user: Thursday, January 02, 2025 10:53 AM | Reason: Not specified
MaichBlack
#2447 Posted : Thursday, January 02, 2025 1:49:10 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,836
obiero wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
MaichBlack wrote:
Leo tuko 4.89/=

Thanks @vvs. I took your advice seriously as always. You always go on facts, data etc. Never emotions!!

I was 50 - 50 on the rights but "talking" to you pushed me in the right direction.

I am glad I could help.
I did not participate though since I picked up DTB. I am also in ABSA.
All 3 have done well on a price basis.

Ceteris Paribus
ABSA will likely pay a final dividend on 1.00 to 1.25 [I like dividends]
DTB will likely pay a final dividend on 6.00 to 7.50 [I like dividends]
HF is unlikely to pay a FY24 dividend but there is a sweet capital gains!

People are celebrating getting into HF share at KES 4.00 while it traded lows of KES 3.60 just a few days back. Live and learn. Next stop KES 7.00. @vvs HF will not pay dividends in FY2024. This was discussed and disclosed in the IM debrief session

It definitely went lower than that but was very short lived. At one point the discount vis-a-vis the rights issue price was quite significant but before I could pull the trigger the price shot back up. I was to buy in the open market.
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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MaichBlack
#2448 Posted : Thursday, January 02, 2025 1:52:57 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,836
obiero wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
MaichBlack wrote:
Leo tuko 4.89/=

Thanks @vvs. I took your advice seriously as always. You always go on facts, data etc. Never emotions!!

I was 50 - 50 on the rights but "talking" to you pushed me in the right direction.

I am glad I could help.
I did not participate though since I picked up DTB. I am also in ABSA.
All 3 have done well on a price basis.

Ceteris Paribus
ABSA will likely pay a final dividend on 1.00 to 1.25 [I like dividends]
DTB will likely pay a final dividend on 6.00 to 7.50 [I like dividends]
HF is unlikely to pay a FY24 dividend but there is a sweet capital gains!

People are celebrating getting into HF share at KES 4.00 while it traded lows of KES 3.60 just a few days back. Live and learn. Next stop KES 7.00. @vvs HF will not pay dividends in FY2024. This was discussed and disclosed in the IM debrief session

Good points.

Nothing as good as a good stock that pays dividends. You are never bothered by price movements so long as the fundamentals are okay. And you keep getting real actual hard cash every year. You can hold the stock "forever"!!!
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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VituVingiSana
#2449 Posted : Thursday, January 02, 2025 8:23:36 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,344
Location: Nairobi
MaichBlack wrote:
obiero wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
MaichBlack wrote:
Leo tuko 4.89/=

Thanks @vvs. I took your advice seriously as always. You always go on facts, data etc. Never emotions!!

I was 50 - 50 on the rights but "talking" to you pushed me in the right direction.

I am glad I could help.
I did not participate though since I picked up DTB. I am also in ABSA.
All 3 have done well on a price basis.

Ceteris Paribus
ABSA will likely pay a final dividend on 1.00 to 1.25 [I like dividends]
DTB will likely pay a final dividend on 6.00 to 7.50 [I like dividends]
HF is unlikely to pay a FY24 dividend but there is a sweet capital gains!

People are celebrating getting into HF share at KES 4.00 while it traded lows of KES 3.60 just a few days back. Live and learn. Next stop KES 7.00. @vvs HF will not pay dividends in FY2024. This was discussed and disclosed in the IM debrief session

Good points.

Nothing as good as a good stock that pays dividends. You are never bothered by price movements so long as the fundamentals are okay. And you keep getting real actual hard cash every year. You can hold the stock "forever"!!!

A lesson I learnt during the long bear.
Dividend payers kept me afloat during bad times. They also helped me pick up more shares at lower prices.

I will not go back to a majority portfolio of non-dividend (or very low) payers no matter how attractive the future prospects look. Most of what I have is expected to pay me 10%+ NETT, close to what 5yr FXDa are paying.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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  | | Edit by user: Thursday, January 02, 2025 8:26 PM | Reason: Not specified
obiero
#2450 Posted : Friday, January 03, 2025 12:28:09 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 14,211
Location: nairobi

KQ ABP 4.26
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