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Housing Finance: HFCK a diamond in the rough
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obiero
#2431 Posted : Wednesday, December 04, 2024 5:12:15 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 14,211
Location: nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
MaichBlack wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
MaichBlack wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
obiero wrote:
Capital appreciation for me holds more importance. I don't need peanut dividend at the moment because I am still young
Good luck.

Let's compare ABSA vs HF total return in Nov 2029 smile

@mlennyma, @VituVingiSana - if you held HF shares currently, what would you do?

1. Sell.
2. Participate in rights issues.
3. Buy below rights price if price dips?

I would not sell based on what I heard.
I may participate in the Rights if I had extra cash sitting around vs buying T-Bonds. All else being equal, I think there will be positive growth.
I would definitely consider #3 if the price drops sufficiently.

*I do not have cash lying around and I think there are other bargains.

Thanks @vvs. What do you think is a realistic target price everything holding constant?
No idea. They have modeled PAT through 2028 if they get a full subscription. I would discount it.

Interest Rates have come off a bit so I would say a PER of 7 sounds reasonable.

They were pushing the narrative that the PB is 20% and will increase towards 100%... When? Who knows?

I know! 😁😁 Seems @vvs was in the session too. HF is undervalued. Target price for 2025 is KES 7. Fair value for long term holders remains KES 12

KQ ABP 4.26
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  | | Edit by user: Wednesday, December 04, 2024 5:14 PM | Reason: Not specified
obiero
#2432 Posted : Thursday, December 05, 2024 9:40:42 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 14,211
Location: nairobi
Actions speak louder.. https://www.hfgroup.co.k...Performance.5a83da7a.pdf

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  | | Edit by user: Thursday, December 05, 2024 9:42 AM | Reason: Not specified
VituVingiSana
#2433 Posted : Thursday, December 05, 2024 9:48:07 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,344
Location: Nairobi
obiero wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
MaichBlack wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
MaichBlack wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
obiero wrote:
Capital appreciation for me holds more importance. I don't need peanut dividend at the moment because I am still young
Good luck.

Let's compare ABSA vs HF total return in Nov 2029 smile

@mlennyma, @VituVingiSana - if you held HF shares currently, what would you do?

1. Sell.
2. Participate in rights issues.
3. Buy below rights price if price dips?

I would not sell based on what I heard.
I may participate in the Rights if I had extra cash sitting around vs buying T-Bonds. All else being equal, I think there will be positive growth.
I would definitely consider #3 if the price drops sufficiently.

*I do not have cash lying around and I think there are other bargains.

Thanks @vvs. What do you think is a realistic target price everything holding constant?
No idea. They have modeled PAT through 2028 if they get a full subscription. I would discount it.

Interest Rates have come off a bit so I would say a PER of 7 sounds reasonable.

They were pushing the narrative that the PB is 20% and will increase towards 100%... When? Who knows?

I know! 😁😁 Seems @vvs was in the session too. HF is undervalued. Target price for 2025 is KES 7. Fair value for long term holders remains KES 12
Listened to Mwango's podcast with Ramah.
Though one can also buy other stocks at decent prices and which pay dividends.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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obiero
#2434 Posted : Thursday, December 05, 2024 11:55:57 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 14,211
Location: nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
obiero wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
MaichBlack wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
MaichBlack wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
obiero wrote:
Capital appreciation for me holds more importance. I don't need peanut dividend at the moment because I am still young
Good luck.

Let's compare ABSA vs HF total return in Nov 2029 smile

@mlennyma, @VituVingiSana - if you held HF shares currently, what would you do?

1. Sell.
2. Participate in rights issues.
3. Buy below rights price if price dips?

I would not sell based on what I heard.
I may participate in the Rights if I had extra cash sitting around vs buying T-Bonds. All else being equal, I think there will be positive growth.
I would definitely consider #3 if the price drops sufficiently.

*I do not have cash lying around and I think there are other bargains.

Thanks @vvs. What do you think is a realistic target price everything holding constant?
No idea. They have modeled PAT through 2028 if they get a full subscription. I would discount it.

Interest Rates have come off a bit so I would say a PER of 7 sounds reasonable.

They were pushing the narrative that the PB is 20% and will increase towards 100%... When? Who knows?

I know! 😁😁 Seems @vvs was in the session too. HF is undervalued. Target price for 2025 is KES 7. Fair value for long term holders remains KES 12
Listened to Mwango's podcast with Ramah.
Though one can also buy other stocks at decent prices and which pay dividends.

A decent podcast it was.. The CEO seems to know what he's doing

KQ ABP 4.26
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DtheK
#2435 Posted : Friday, December 06, 2024 11:21:37 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 2/15/2010
Posts: 165
Location: Kenya
MaichBlack wrote:
DtheK wrote:
Proposal to increase KE banks core capital to 10B by 2027(potential for more cash calls)
Britam has loaned to HFCK at 20%.
There are other cheap banks with sufficient even excess capital(therefore dividends).
A pass. Admire Obiero's conviction though.

Would you sell at current prices if you had some.

What's the likely price direction after new shares from the rights are loaded into CDS accounts and can be traded?

I wouldn't sell, I'd give management and board about a year to see how they utilize the raised capital. They are already doing a decent job especially on non funded income.
Price direction I dare not speculate.
Bottom line is judging from recent result HF isn't a dud, there are just way more more superior options.
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obiero
#2436 Posted : Saturday, December 07, 2024 4:20:57 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 14,211
Location: nairobi
DtheK wrote:
MaichBlack wrote:
DtheK wrote:
Proposal to increase KE banks core capital to 10B by 2027(potential for more cash calls)
Britam has loaned to HFCK at 20%.
There are other cheap banks with sufficient even excess capital(therefore dividends).
A pass. Admire Obiero's conviction though.

Would you sell at current prices if you had some.

What's the likely price direction after new shares from the rights are loaded into CDS accounts and can be traded?

I wouldn't sell, I'd give management and board about a year to see how they utilize the raised capital. They are already doing a decent job especially on non funded income.
Price direction I dare not speculate.
Bottom line is judging from recent result HF isn't a dud, there are just way more more superior options.

It's a solid firm

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obiero
#2437 Posted : Thursday, December 19, 2024 10:10:44 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 14,211
Location: nairobi
Tomorrow is the big day

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holycow
#2438 Posted : Friday, December 20, 2024 10:13:08 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/11/2006
Posts: 972
Location: Home
obiero wrote:
Tomorrow is the big day

Oversubscribed
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  | | Edit by user: Friday, December 20, 2024 10:29 AM | Reason: Not specified
obiero
#2439 Posted : Friday, December 20, 2024 11:24:12 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 14,211
Location: nairobi
obiero wrote:
Expect an oversubscribed event

Let the weak say, I am strong. Let the blind say, I can see

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obiero
#2440 Posted : Monday, December 23, 2024 7:28:27 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 14,211
Location: nairobi
obiero wrote:
obiero wrote:
Expect an oversubscribed event

Let the weak say, I am strong. Let the blind say, I can see

The current share price of HF Group Limited (HFCK) is KES 4.48. HFCK closed its last trading day (Monday, December 23, 2024) at 4.48 KES per share on the Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE), recording a 6.4% gain over its previous closing price of 4.21 KES. HF began the year with a share price of 3.48 KES and has since gained 28.7% on that price valuation, ranking it 16th on the NSE in terms of year-to-date performance. Shareholders can be optimistic about HFCK knowing the stock has accrued 15% over the past four-week periodβ€”third best on NSE.

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